Probability

The Perplexing Monty Hall Problem and How It Undercuts Christianity

January 18, 2013 By Bob Seidensticker 112 Comments

how the Monty Hall Problem relates to Christianity

One of the three doors has a car behind it. You pick one, and the game show host reveals that one of the other two is a goat. Knowing that there’s a total of two goats and one car, do you switch?

Filed Under: Christianity, Skepticism Tagged With: Goats, Monty Hall, Probability 112 Comments

How Likely the Jesus Miracle Stories?

January 14, 2013 By Bob Seidensticker 20 Comments

Weighing souls, like we must weigh the evidence for God and Jesus

How can probability be used to help clarify the God question? A quick (and easy) summary of Bayes Theorem will provide a useful tool in weighing competing claims.

Filed Under: Christianity, Skepticism Tagged With: Bayes Theorem, Does God exist?, Probability, Richard Carrier, Was Mary a virgin? 20 Comments

Probability Proves Bible Prophecy (or Not)

August 29, 2012 By Bob Seidensticker 10 Comments

Silver coins from pre-Roman Lombardy. Imagine the size of the pile if there were 100,000,000,000,000,000 of them.

In which we critique a popular analysis of the probability of Jesus prophecies coming true and find nothing there.

Filed Under: Christianity, Skepticism Tagged With: 30 Pieces of Silver, Bethlehem, Bible Prophecy, Donkey, Jesus, Micah, Peter Stoner, Probability, Science Speaks, Synonymous Parallelism, Zechariah 10 Comments

Using the Monty Hall Problem to Undercut Christianity

November 28, 2011 By Bob Seidensticker 6 Comments

The Monty Hall problem is a simple puzzle with a paradoxical answer. It has a lot to say about the validity of religious belief.

Filed Under: Christianity, Religion, Skepticism Tagged With: Ask Marilyn, Game Show, Monty Hall Problem, Parade Magazine, Probability 6 Comments