I thought I’d keep track of all the predictions made by pundits and analysts for tomorrow’s election so we could compare them to the actual results and see who is closer. Let’s start with Karl Rove, who is predicting a Romney victory with at least 279 electoral votes:
Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side’s closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
He doesn’t give any analysis of which of the swing states Romney is going to win to get to that number, so it’s difficult to nail him down on specific predictions for how this happens.
Dennis Chambers’ Unskewed Polls is going to be particularly fun to watch. He’s making some staggeringly audacious claims, based on his reworking of the poll numbers to assume large Republican majorities going to vote. On October 28, he projected Romney to win all of the key swing states — Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and Nevada — and get 301 electoral votes. Hell, he even has Romney winning Wisconsin.
Let’s look at Nevada in particular. As of Oct. 28, Chambers’ “unskewed” analysis had Romney leading by 5.6% over Obama. The RealClearPolitics poll average, on the other hand, has Obama up by an average of 2.7 points. But that’s just the beginning. There hasn’t been one single poll that showed Romney leading in Nevada since April, and that was the only poll ever to show him with a lead. Even Rasmussen, which leans Republican more strongly than other polling companies, had Obama up by 2 points in their last poll.
Similarly in Wisconsin, Chambers has Romney up by 3 points while the average of the actual polls has Obama up by 5 points. And here again, there hasn’t been a single poll showing Romney with a lead in that state in months (there were two that had him up by 1 point immediately after Ryan was put on the ticket in August; they were quickly reversed in every other poll taken since then).
I’ll predict, and I’d be willing to bet a lot of money on this, that Chambers isn’t even close. It’s certainly possible that Romney can win the election, but with 300 electoral votes? Not a chance. He literally has to win every state where Obama doesn’t have an insurmountable lead. Isn’t gonna happen.
Michael Barone may be even more out to lunch than Chambers. He’s predicting that Romney wins in a landslide, by nearly 100 electoral votes. He has Romney winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida. I want some of what he’s smoking.
Wesley Pruden, who has spent most of his career as a journalist being paid by the recently deceased fascist cult leader Rev. Sun Myung Moon, says “All the signs say it’s Romney.” All except the actual polling data, of course.
George Will, usually one of the more sane conservatives, predicts a Romney landslide with 321 electoral votes — including Minnesota, for crying out loud.
Dick Morris says 325 electoral votes and he has Romney winning both Minnesota and Wisconsin, along with a clean sweep of the swing states other than Nevada.
And our old friend Vox Day has Romney winning 305 electoral votes, which requires a sweep of every swing state — including Pennsylvania, which really isn’t a swing state. I wonder if he’s counting the votes of women?
Finally, some of the big meta-analysis folks. As of Sunday night, Nate Silver was giving Obama an 85.5% cahnce of winning and the average number of electoral votes in his trials was 306.4 for Obama.
Sam Wang was going even higher, over 96% with a prediction of 303 electoral votes.
Electoral-vote.com was giving Obama 281 electoral votes and Romney 206, with 51 still considered a toss up. That site was also projecting 52 Democratic seats in the Senate, with 3 still up for grabs.
Election Projection was giving Obama 290 electoral votes and Romney 248.
Nate Cohn at the New Republic had not made specific projections as of Sunday night.
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