Dick Morris emerged from his secret lair between the toes of a statue of a large Amazon woman to explain why he got things so flagrantly wrong in predicting a Romney landslide. He starts with his characteristic dishonesty:
I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
No. Once Florida is certified for Obama, he will have gotten more electoral votes than you predicted Romney would get. So why is one a landslide and the other a squeaker? But he is at least lucid enough to recognize how demographics are changing the electoral landscape:
In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
By the time you finish with the various demographic groups the Democrats win, you almost have a majority in their corner. Count them: Blacks cast 13% of the vote and Obama won them 12-1. Latinos cast 10% and Obama carried them by 7-3. Under 30 voters cast 19% of the vote and Obama swept them by 12-7. Single white women cast 18% of the total vote and Obama won them by 12-6. There is some overlap among these groups, of course, but without allowing for any, Obama won 43-17 before the first married white woman or man over 30 cast their vote. (Lets guess that if we eliminate duplication, the Obama margin would be 35-13) Having conceded these votes, Romney would have had to win over two-thirds of the rest of the vote to win. He almost did. But not quite.
But then he has to offer a flimsy excuse anyway:
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
It made all the difference.
I’d like to see some evidence of that, like exit polls that show a significant number of previously undecided or Republican-leaning voters who changed their mind after the hurricane and seeing Chris Christie. Unless you have that evidence, you’re just offering an ad hoc, or rather post hoc, rationalization.
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