If you’d spent months ranting and raving about how inaccurate the polls were in last year’s presidential election and declaring that Romney was going to win in a landslide after you’d “unskewed” the polls, only to be proven definitively wrong and look like an ass, you’d think you’d just shut the hell up about the polls. Not Dean Chambers. Now he’s being a poll truther on Obama’s approval rating.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average of polls on the president’s approval rating shows an approval rating of 52.1 percent to a disapproval rating of 42.9 percent. That translates to an approval margin of 9.2 percent. The average is based on ten recent polls, most of then commissioned or conducted by major news outlets. As with many of the polls last Fall before the election, the polls are skewed by over-sampling Democratic voters.
Gosh, it seems like you tried to make this exact same argument last year and ended up with enough egg on your face to make an omelette the size of Toledo. And if you take the five polls he claims are not skewed, even by his standards, you get an average margin of 8.4% — and that includes the Fox News poll that shows an even 39-39 split, which is wildly out of whack with every other poll that he calls unskewed; the other four show margins of 12, 12, 11 and 7 points. And even all the polls he claims to have “unskewed.” In fact, the average of the polls that he “unskews” is still 6.5%, so the Fox News poll is obviously an outlier that does not fit with 10 other polls. If you take out the Fox News poll, you find an average margin of 8.3 points, or almost exactly what the polls he admits are reasonable found.
So his “unskewing” drops the president’s average approval ratings by less than one percent. Sure glad he emerged from under that rock to do the hard math, aren’t you?