I swear, Dean Chambers was put on earth just to entertain me. After admitting that his “unskewing” of the polls got the election results completely wrong, now he says he was right all along and that the polls are still skewed — and of course, he’s going to unskew them again.
Last year I conclusively demonstrated how many of the major polls were skewed in favor of the Democrats, and then I unskewed them to show just how skewed they were. It was clear, the major media were using the skewed polls to show President Obama leading by a great degree in the race for president against Mitt Romney than he really was. Remember, he won by about three percent in the real poll on election day, while most of those major polls showed him winning by margins of six or eight percent or more. Clearly those polls were skewed.
The real picture of the situation with the polls gets easily lost in the final result of the election and all of the left’s gloating that they got their guy reelected. Let’s be brutally honest, no one really expected the Obama campaign to re-create the coalition of voters and groups assembled in the enthusiasm of the campaign’s appeal to hope and change in 2008 and get as many voters to the polls in 2012. No one expected the electorate to really be plus five percent in favor of Democrats as the exit polls showed. Even the skewed polls showed comparative enthusiasm levels among voters in both party’s bases that would clearly indicate an election-day electorate that would include more Republican voters than Democratic voters.
Now let’s flash back to a couple days after the election last year, when his predictions turned out to be completely wrong and Nate Silver’s analysis of the polls turned out to be spot on.
“Nate Silver was right, and I was wrong,” Chambers said in a phone interview.
Chambers’ method of “unskewing” polls involved re-weighting the sample to match what he believed the electorate would look like, in terms of party identification. He thought the electorate would lean more Republican when mainstream pollsters routinely found samples that leaned Democratic.
But as it turned out, the pollsters were right — self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6% in election exit polls.
“I think it was much more in the Democratic direction than most people predicted,” Chambers said. “But those assumptions — my assumptions — were wrong.”…
But he said he probably won’t go back to “unskewing” polls next time. He actually thinks conservative-leaning pollsters like Scott Rasmussen have a lot more explaining to do.
“He has lost a lot of credibility, as far as I’m concerned,” Chambers said. “He did a lot of surveys. A lot of those surveys were wrong.”
Being a wingnut means never admitting you’re wrong. And if you do, you just wait a while and pretend it never happened and that you were right all along.