Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council is one of those anti-gay leaders who has tried to keep a stiff upper lip in the face of the overwhelming evidence that the Christian right is losing on gay marriage and gay rights in general. And he’s finally found a poll he likes:
But according to a new Rasmussen Poll, it’s anything but. In what should be an eye-opening survey that the media will go out of its way to ignore, the survey house announced a flat-out tie between Americans who back same-sex “marriage” and those who don’t. Holding almost completely steady from its 2013 numbers, 43% of people , when asked “do you favor or oppose gay marriage,” said they supported, compared to another 43% who opposed. The debate, which the media pronounced dead and buried, has never been more alive!
I’ll take cherry picking the results he likes for $1000, Alex. This is a lot like what creationists do with scientists. 99.99% of all scientists in the relevant fields accept evolution and reject creationism, but if they can find a single biologist or geologist who says they’re right, he’s obviously the only scientific opinion that matters. There are several problems with this. The first is that this single poll is what is called an “outlier,” that is, a poll that is extremely out of line with dozens of other polls. Most other polls over the last few months have put support for same-sex marriage at 55-60% nationally.The second is that it’s a Rasmussen poll, which is one of the least accurate polling firms in the country that strongly skews conservative. In the 2012 election, for example, out of 23 polling companies that produced at least five polls leading up to the election, Rasmussen was 20th in terms of how close their polling came to the actual election results. Their average poll was off by 4.2 points compared to the election results and they skewed 3.7 points to the Republican side. One of the reasons is that they do not include cell phones in their polls, which makes their sample skew older and more conservative.
And the the third is this: Even if this poll were accurate, and it almost certainly isn’t for all the reasons I laid out above, that’s still a 25-30 point swing in public opinion in the last 10 years on the issue. Does he really think that’s suddenly going to reverse itself and people are going to think, “Boy, they were right, gay marriage is going to destroy the world!” You go right ahead and keep thinking that, Tony.