Why Donald Trump Doesn’t Stand a Chance

Five Thirty Eight’s Harry Enten explains why Donald Trump, for all the media attention he’ll get and all the shit he’ll stir up, has essentially no chance of winning the Republican nomination. The reason: Even Republicans don’t like him. I mean really don’t like him.

Trump is the anti-LeBron — popularity is performance in politics, and Trump is the first candidate in modern presidential primary history to begin the campaign with a majority of his own party disliking him. A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle.1 Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

Nearly 60% of Republicans don’t like him. Which is why the Democrats should be cheering for him to win. But he isn’t going to. He isn’t going to come anywhere near winning the nomination. He’s going to make a fool out of himself on a daily basis. And I, for one, am going to enjoy every minute of it for the short time he’s in the race.

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  • petemoulton

    Just think what Trump’s going to do for the popcorn industry.

  • John Pieret

    Glenn Beck (of all people) had this assessment:

    After co-host Stu Burguiere warned that allowing Trump to actually participate in Republican presidential debates would be a total catastrophe because Trump would just turn them into an utter circus, Beck said that it is people like Trump who make voters think that the Republican Party is nothing but a group of idiots.

    “Donald Trump coming in and doing this to the Republicans is going to make all of us look ridiculous,” Beck said. “Anybody who is a conservative, we are going to look absolutely like clowns. It’s just a shame.”

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/beck-donald-trump-biggest-flaming-ass-you-could-possibly-imagine

    For once, I hope Beck is right in his predictions. But Glenn shouldn’t be so modest … he has contributed mightily to people thinking conservatives are clowns.

  • colnago80

    Re John Pieret @ #2

    Gee, if the Bek doesn’t like the Donald, maybe the latter ain’t so bad.

  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    Almost 60% of Republicans don’t like their own id.

  • Glenn E Ross

    He’s going to make a fool out of himself on a daily basis.

    Is Trump really so clueless that he cannot see how ridiculous he looks at times? Does he live in that big of a bubble? Does he ever watch tapes of himself?

    It seems he is the perfect example of a narcissist.

  • eric

    I’m guessing almost 100% of media outlets are covering him because of his clownishness, not because they think he has a chance of winning. And the only reason I throw that “almost” in there is because I’m not sure whether Trump himself owns some media outlets.

  • Mr Ed

    Right now somewhere in Iowa a candidate is talking about the US being a Christian nation. Some where else another is raging against the gay agenda. More than one is advocating tax cuts of the top earners job creators. The average voter and the media aren’t hearing this because Trump is running cover. It won’t get reported because as long as Trump is in the race it is only the second most crazy thing said.

  • Pierce R. Butler

    Please consider: if you were a top Republican strategist, charged with making the likes of Scott Walker and Jeb! Bush look reasonable and statesmanlike, would you want to do so by drawing attention to the records and words of Scott Walker and Jeb! Bush?

  • dingojack

    “Donald Trump coming in and doing this to the Republicans is going to make all of us look ridiculous,” Beck said.

    Bek said this. Yes, Glenn Bek!

    The man who has done more than most to “…make voters think that the Republican Party is nothing but a group of idiots…” actually said this!!

    SERIOUSLY!!!

    GLENN BECK!!!!

    Dingo

  • dingojack

    That’s kinda like Zsa Zsa Gabor complaining about many husbands Liz Taylor has had!

    Dingo

  • eric

    if you were a top Republican strategist, charged with making the likes of Scott Walker and Jeb! Bush look reasonable and statesmanlike…

    Well, the problem is that the media isn’t covering Bush and Walker right now, because of Trump. So I have to imagine the Bush and Walker strategists don’t like it one bit. If either Bush or Walker makes some big gaffe, I’m sure they’d be happy to have Trump come out of the woodwork right then to distract attention away from them. But I doubt they want him hogging the media attention now.

  • Big Boppa

    Once Jeb! buys secures the nomination I will be very happy to encourage a tRump/Santorum 3rd party run for the White House.

    I mean, come on guys. Think of the poor comedians.

  • bahrfeldt

    The following, tho slightly modified, are from posters or commenters on other sites. As is the link.

    .

    Trump says that his name is worth nine billion dollars.

    The Kardashians think that their name is worth trillions.

    JEB! knows that his last name is worthless.

    .

    When Trump sings “How Great Thou Art,” he sings it in a mirror.

    .

    The problem with a messiah complex is that there is no way to know whether you are going to rise on the third day until somebody crucifies you.

    .

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419853/witless-ape-rides-escalator-kevin-d-williamson

    .

    Yup. Even the National Review.

  • Al Dente

    Folksinger Jon Campbell wrote a song about a casino called “The Foxwoods Polka”. It has the couplet:

    Vegas is too far away, Atlantic City is a dump,

    And I’d rather burn my money than give a cent to Donald Trump.

  • sigurd jorsalfar

    Almost 60% of Republicans don’t like their own id.

    modus, I think you’ve stumbled upon a new meme — the self-hating Republican.

  • lorn

    Modusoperandi @4 : “Almost 60% of Republicans don’t like their own id.”

    sigurd jorsalfar @15: “modus, I think you’ve stumbled upon a new meme — the self-hating Republican.”

    An interesting and insightful observation.

    Conservatives in general, and Republicans in particular, spend a lot of mental energy on approach-avoidance conflicts. They idealize individuality while demanding conformity. They advocate for freedom while being bound up in their own restraint. They seem to have a lot of problems finding a middle ground.

    Instead of drinking a moderately they are tea-totalers who fall off the wagon and get blackout drunk very two weeks. They are preachers who get their luggage lifted one day a week and use their guilt and shame over their incontinence to energize their preaching against lust and sin the other six.