Trump to Run Third Party if He Doesn’t Get the GOP Nomination?

Several times on the campaign trail, Donald Trump has pointedly refused to say that he would not run as an independent candidate if he fails to win the Republican nomination. In an interview with The Hill, he makes that threat even more blatant:

Donald Trump says the chances that he will launch a third-party White House run will “absolutely” increase if the Republican National Committee is unfair to him during the 2016 primary season.

“The RNC has not been supportive. They were always supportive when I was a contributor. I was their fair-haired boy,” the business mogul told The Hill in a 40-minute interview from his Manhattan office at Trump Tower on Wednesday. “The RNC has been, I think, very foolish.”

Pressed on whether he would run as a third-party candidate if he fails to clinch the GOP nomination, Trump said that “so many people want me to, if I don’t win.”

“I’ll have to see how I’m being treated by the Republicans,” Trump said. “Absolutely, if they’re not fair, that would be a factor.”

I’ve been saying for a while now that I think this is fairly likely to happen and it puts the Republican party in a real bind. They have continually distanced themselves from his inflammatory and often vile statements because they know they have to do so in order to protect themselves in the general election if they hope to win over reasonable swing voters. But the more they do that, the more they risk facing him in a three-way election next year and that would doom them completely. A poll a few days ago found that with Trump running as an independent, Hillary Clinton would crush their candidate with the numbers coming out 46-30-20 for the Democrat, the Republican and Trump, respectively.

Follow Us!
POPULAR AT PATHEOS Nonreligious
What Are Your Thoughts?leave a comment
  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    A poll a few days ago found that with Trump running as an independent, Hillary Clinton would crush their candidate with the numbers coming out 46-30-20 for the Democrat, the Republican and Trump, respectively.

    Wrong. Trump would get all the votes. Even the ones from losers.

     

    Alternately,

    Sure, but that 20% would be the best, the greatest, the classiest votes.

     

    Alternately,

    With 50% more votes than Trump, this “the Republican” is looking pretty strong compared to the rest of the GOP pack. How come we haven’t heard more about this candidate?

  • http://www.gregory-gadow.net Gregory in Seattle

    With the several Democratic candidates running for President, including one who is drawing far bigger crowds and out-raising money in terms of both number of donations and dollar amount, the media has already anointed Clinton as the nominee. I guess there is no point in spending all that time, money and effort on primaries and caucuses.

    That big annoyance aside, I really, really hope Trump runs as an independent. Oh please oh please oh please oh please!

  • http://drx.typepad.com Dr X

    What makes Trump think he can be the GOP nominee when God didn’t tell him to run?

  • busterggi

    A third party? What could it Tea?

  • wreck

    I would suggest he name his party the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, but the Brits already got that one. How about:

    The Hideous Toupee Party

    The Bankruptcy Party

    The Obnoxious Blowhard Party

  • Childermass

    With Trump running as a third-party candidate then either the near-unelectable Sanders or the potentially weak and scandal-prone Clinton will simply coast to victory with easily the biggest victories the Democrats have had in both the electoral college and the popular vote.

    Somehow I don’t see it happening though. I suspect Trump simply is basking in attention for now but simply is uninterested in a real presidential run which he exposes himself to the prospect of being fired by the American people. I could be wrong though as it is possible the the attention-seeking part of personality will overcome everything else.

  • Childermass

    “With Trump running as a third-party candidate then either the near-unelectable Sanders or the potentially weak and scandal-prone Clinton will simply coast to victory with easily the biggest victories the Democrats have had in both the electoral college and the popular vote.” I forgot to say … “in my lifetime.”

  • carpenterman

    Can we get Trump to run in all the Senate and House races too?

  • whheydt

    There are probably more anti-Republicans than Republicans hoping Trump does an independent run.

  • freemage

    It’d be nice if that three-way poll had also run numbers for “Sanders v. The Republican v. Trump”.

    And it’s funny, because in the vast majority of cases, a generic party candidate almost always has more support in polls than a specific candidate does. So that 30% for “The Republican” is actually likely to be the high-water mark. It is likely to hold true for an ‘establishment’ Republican like John Ellis Bush Bush, but if it’s someone dipping into the same Tea Party well as Trump (say, Scott Walker, for instance), then a lot of that 30% might choose to jump ship (especially for Hillary, who, like Obama, is really a moderate Republican on most points), or, barring that, just stay home.

  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    Dr X “What makes Trump think he can be the GOP nominee when God didn’t tell him to run?”

    Why would Trump take advice from that loser? Why, because Jesus is a hero? He isn’t a hero. He’s a “hero” because He got crucified. Trump likes people who weren’t crucified.

  • raven

    If it sounds too good to be true, it probably isn’t true.

    Trump seems to be in it for the attention.

    Actually running for an office and getting elected is too much like real work.

    Trump has never run for office or held an elected position, AFAIK, so why would he start now? He certainly has no talent or qualifications for elected office.

  • colnago80

    Re raven @ #12

    Hey come on now. Is Trump really worse the most of the other Rethuglican candidates?

  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    raven “Trump has never run for office or held an elected position, AFAIK, so why would he start now? He certainly has no talent or qualifications for elected office.”

    Exactly. He’s not a politician. I don’t see why you Liberals keep making his case for him.

  • Trebuchet

    Hey come on now. Is Trump really worse the most of the other Rethuglican candidates?

    Better, in at least one way. He’s more honest than the rest of them put together.

    That 46-30-20 projection is troubling. Hillary gets only 46%? That’s less than Romney. I’d expect something more along the lines of 52-45-2.

  • daved

    Trump has never run for office or held an elected position, AFAIK, so why would he start now? He certainly has no talent or qualifications for elected office.

    Well, the same can certainly be said for Ben Carson, who is treated as a serious candidate. Carly Fiorina has run twice and lost twice and has never held an elective office as far as I know.

  • raven

    Well, the same can certainly be said for Ben Carson, who is treated as a serious candidate. Carly Fiorina has run twice and lost twice and has never held an elective office as far as I know.

    True. But they aren’t the least bit qualified either.

    After what Carly Fiorina did to Hewlett Packard, I can’t imagine anyone letting her run anything ever again.

  • marcus

    Oh it just keeps getting better and better!

    Could Teh Donald end up being the Republicans’ Ralph Nader?

    Moar popcorn!

  • http://motherwell.livejournal.com/ Raging Bee

    I seriously doubt that Trump would run as an “independent.” For starters, he’s not really “independent” — he’s dependent on a Republican-aligned propaganda machine, and if they don’t choose to support him, he’s toast.

    And second, how many times have the crybaby far right threatened to quit the PoG? Like about every four years? Have they ever even come close to carrying out their threat? Of course not — they all know they can’t win anything on their own, and the party know they can’t win on their own either. They always kiss and make up, and they’ll do the same this time too, for all the same reasons.

    If the libertarians didn’t bolt from the GOP over the Iraq war and the domestic surveillance, then they sure as hell won’t bolt to support Donald Trump. If Trump runs on his own, he’ll be just that — on his own. Anyone who thinks he’ll split the GOP has a serious wishful-thinking problem.

  • http://motherwell.livejournal.com/ Raging Bee

    After what Carly Fiorina did to Hewlett Packard, I can’t imagine anyone letting her run anything ever again.

    Well, HP let Meg Whitman come back after spending $140M running for CA Governor and getting her ass kicked by New-Age has-been Gerry Brown. I liked working for HP, but they don’t really seem to value competence all that much.

  • jws1

    I’m operating under the assumption that there are all kinds of hoops to jump through in order to get on the ballot as an independent. I’m not sold the Trump 2016 campaign has demonstrated the administrative competence required to force one’s way onto the ballot outside of the two parties. Maybe he has hired competent staff – I just don’t see any reason to believe he has.

  • moarscienceplz

    Run, Donald, run!

    I think the new 3rd party should resurrect the name of the party that they aspire to be: The Know-nothings.

  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    Raging Bee “Well, HP let Meg Whitman come back after spending $140M running for CA Governor and getting her ass kicked by New-Age has-been Gerry Brown.”

    “Has been”? Two terms as governor, [one lost Democratic presidential primary], [one lost Senate bid], mayor of Oakville, two terms as Cali’s AG, and two terms as governor post-Whitman. Gerry Brown is so great that one of Whitman’s own campaign ads emphasized how much better things were when he was governor.

  • martinc

    “The RNC has not been supportive. They were always supportive when I was a contributor.”

    I had a similar experience with the New England Patriots. They were happy to sell me posters and caps and even tickets to games, but when I asked to be quarterback, they acted like they’d never heard of me.

  • D. C. Sessions

    After what Carly Fiorina did to Hewlett Packard, I can’t imagine anyone letting her run anything ever again.

    The Republicans are the party of “Government can’t do anything right,” so Fiorina is their perfect candidate.

  • colnago80

    In the first place, it’s Jerry Brown. In the second place, he was mayor of Oakland, Ca. which is right across the bay from San Francisco. Just because the guy is 74 doesn’t make him a hasbeen.

  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    colnago80, Oakland is the most anti-Semitic of all the California towns with populations of 400,000, plus Glenn Greenwald spoke in San Franciso, therefore etc etc.

  • colnago80

    Re Modus @ #27

    I realize that Modus was just zinging me but to be accurate, the most antisemitic town in California is Lake Elsinore.

  • http://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/User:Modusoperandi Modusoperandi

    Colnago80, I specified “of all the California towns with populations of 400,000”. Lake Elsinore (in addition to be named after the famed Elsinore Brewery) barely passes 55,000.

  • http://www.ranum.com Marcus Ranum

    I worry that our popcorn supplies will run out.

  • whheydt

    Re: moarschienceplz @ #22…

    Nonsense. If he runs on a third party ticket, there is only one party he could possibly represent…the Trump Party. No other party name would do. And if the Republicans are crazy enough to nominate him, he’ll insist on renaming it the “Trump Republican Party.”

  • otrame

    That Elsinore Beer is good, eh?

  • John Pieret

    Marcus Ranum:

    Frankly, I’m more worried that our beer supplies will run out.

  • Holms

    #13

    Hey come on now. Is Trump really worse the most of the other Rethuglican candidates?

    Yes. He has shares their most rabid race politics (see comments regarding Mexico especially), a full believer in trickle-down, unregulated free market economics, combined with far more bluster and far less political experience.

  • StevoR

    When it comes to the reality of Trump’s chances, I think current polling (always a dubious predictor of reality especially this far out) is highly misleading as this excellent analysis :

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122333/donald-trump-not-frontrunner-smarter-polls-would-prove-it

    By Sam Wang seems to indicate.

    I’m pretty damn sure that Donald Trump won’t be the Repub nomination for 2016 or for that matter any year ever.

    Less so on whether Trump does a “Ross Perot” third party run that won’t end even as well as Perot’s bid did for him.

  • StevoR

    Even if, as Jim Wright writes in this superb blog post on Stonettlekettle station

    http://www.stonekettle.com/2015/07/the-republican-tell-tale-heart.html

    (the source of the above Sam Wang analysis btw)

    Trump is actually the ideal and most representative of all Rethugliklan candidates.

  • StevoR

    @6& 7. Childermass :

    “With Trump running as a third-party candidate then either the near-unelectable Sanders or the potentially weak and scandal-prone Clinton will simply coast to victory with easily the biggest victories the Democrats have had in both the electoral college and the popular vote.” I forgot to say … “in my lifetime.”

    So, wait, ya reckon someone who is “near-unelectable” or someone who is “weak” will still win in the most massive landslide o f your lifetime? Really?

  • colnago80

    Re Holms @ #34

    Trump just says out loud what most of the other Rethuglican candidates think in their heart of hearts. Worse then Rick Santorum? Worse then Scott Walker? I think not. Given Jeb Bushes end Medicare and his behavior during the Schiavo affair, I’m not sure that he’s much better, despite being married to a Hispanic.

  • StevoR

    @ ^ colnago80 : I’d say Pataki, Kasich and Lindsey Graham are pretty reasonabe republican candidates who are all a lot better than Trump – plus Santorum, Huckabee & er. I forget oops, oh yeah Perry! Et al..