Every generation makes the fallacy of assuming their time is different, special. One thing makes me think this one is different. Technology has changed the dynamic of the political movement.

Tienanmen Square was a mere 20 years ago, and the changes in China have been staggering. They might not be a carbon copy of western democracy, but things have changed quickly. And that was just because of TV.

Sorry, I have to give a quick segue to Rodger Waters from his album Amused to Death, the end of the song ‘Watching TV’

And she is different from Cro-Magnon man
She’s different from Anne Boleyn
She is different from the Rosenbergs
And from the unknown Jew
She is different from the unknown Nicaraguan
Half superstar half victim
She’s a victor star conceptually new
And she is different from the Dodo
And from the Kankabono
She is different from the Aztec
And from the Cherokee
She’s everybody’s sister
She’s symbolic of our failure
She’s the one in fifty million
Who can help us to be free
Because she died on TV

TV changed the world. Now the Internet is dwarfing its impact at the speed of light. I would have been skeptical of quick change in Iran 8 years ago. Today, with a camera, video recorder, phone and internet access in everyones pocket, Pandoras Box has been opened wide.

@gribble:

What exactly do we think the fundamentalists in charge will do when they get kicked out of power?

As the old saying goes, “voting doesn’t change anything; if it did, they’ll outlaw it.” The one common factor underlying all governments is that they’ll stoop to any level of violence, no matter how unimaginable, to maintain power. The one thing in the favor of the people is that we have the government vastly outnumbered. Most of the time, the people are kept suitably passive so that this is not an issue, but I’d say that this is a rare moment in which the Iranian people are focused sufficiently on their condition to actually stand up to anything the government throws at them. It’ll be nasty, but the people will win. Unfortunately, after it’s done they’ll most likely proceed to set up a new government which is slightly different but nonetheless maintains most of the bad features of the old one.

@Unbrainwashed: Neither Christianity nor Islam is dangerous; theocracy is dangerous.

If events in Iran turn out to be like a “Prague Spring”, I still predict that the demonstrators will experience liberation within a generation. Some things take time.

I also happened to be in Beijing just before the “Tiananmen square” incident. I personally know Chinese graduate students that were “defined” by that event. Although, the Chinese government hasn’t fallen, most agree that the Chinese government has moderated quite a lot since the “old days”.

Any time tanks roll and fire on their own, the party doing the firing ultimately looses (or changes for the better).

1. It has an incredibly large young population (60% of the population are under 30)

2. These young ‘uns are, thanks to the interwebs, perfectly well aware of how we in the west are free (largely) to say and do as we please, women may wear what they like, men may share a pint after work, dancing and singing are good fun.

3. They are also perfectly aware that they do not have these freedoms.

4. Under the Ayatollahs they know they have been politically isolated and diminished.

5. No one likes Ahmadinajad. His statements on Israel haven’t been widely accepted, his economic policies have done nothing good and the nuclear path he is on has noticeably alienated the rest of the world.

No for the downsides. What exactly do we think the fundamentalists in charge will do when they get kicked out of power? Will they go queitly into the night? Or will they engage in terrorism and other undesireable behaviour to try and cripple whatever replaces the ayatollahs?

Overall i’m optimistic, I’ve always thought the Iranians had a lot going for them and that the theocracy couldn’t last. I hope they manage to throw off the ayatollah and establish some form of self governance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_Spring

While I would like to see the theocracy loosen its hold on Iran, there are a lot of conservative hardliners over there (both religious and non) who would be more than happy to crush the protests violently. And there’s certainly ample historical precedent for that sort of action.