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	<title>Comments on: A Survival Story with a Logical Survivor</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/</link>
	<description>by Hemant Mehta</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 28 May 2012 09:51:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: J Myers</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-326042</link>
		<dc:creator>J Myers</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:50:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-326042</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Weak Anthropic Principle arguments are total BS. They explain nothing.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

The WAP is quite useful; it refutes the fine-tuning argument (and other claims of the involvement of some god in ostensibly low-probability events, as I explained above).

I* certainly do not think that the WAP explains &lt;em&gt;why&lt;/em&gt; Juliane survived, nor do I think that it explains why the universe has the particular properties we observe; it does, however, show why it is &lt;em&gt;not&lt;/em&gt; reasonable to infer any god&#039;s involvement in these matters (on the basis of probability alone, anyhow).  If such a tool is of no use to you, by all means ignore it, but it is hardly BS.

&lt;em&gt;* I only addressed the AP at all to correct a misrepresentation in a previous comment.&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Weak Anthropic Principle arguments are total BS. They explain nothing.</p></blockquote>
<p>The WAP is quite useful; it refutes the fine-tuning argument (and other claims of the involvement of some god in ostensibly low-probability events, as I explained above).</p>
<p>I* certainly do not think that the WAP explains <em>why</em> Juliane survived, nor do I think that it explains why the universe has the particular properties we observe; it does, however, show why it is <em>not</em> reasonable to infer any god&#8217;s involvement in these matters (on the basis of probability alone, anyhow).  If such a tool is of no use to you, by all means ignore it, but it is hardly BS.</p>
<p><em>* I only addressed the AP at all to correct a misrepresentation in a previous comment.</em></p>
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		<title>By: Bacopa</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325847</link>
		<dc:creator>Bacopa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 04:21:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325847</guid>
		<description>As Spock said, &quot;Random chance seems to have operated in our favor.&quot; Some people just get lucky and live. Some people are lucky enough to have the skills that help them live once they meet misfortune. This woman had what it took.

&quot;Miracle&quot; is often used to mean &quot;something we&#039;re glad happened&quot; I remember when Oprah had those miners who survived that 2003 accident on her show. There was a short clip at the beginning that explained exactly how the miners were rescued. No mention of God interveinig in the clip, training and hard work saved the miners. Yet the word &quot;miracle&quot; was thrown about at least a hundred times later in the show.

Weak Anthropic Principle arguments are total BS. They explain nothing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As Spock said, &#8220;Random chance seems to have operated in our favor.&#8221; Some people just get lucky and live. Some people are lucky enough to have the skills that help them live once they meet misfortune. This woman had what it took.</p>
<p>&#8220;Miracle&#8221; is often used to mean &#8220;something we&#8217;re glad happened&#8221; I remember when Oprah had those miners who survived that 2003 accident on her show. There was a short clip at the beginning that explained exactly how the miners were rescued. No mention of God interveinig in the clip, training and hard work saved the miners. Yet the word &#8220;miracle&#8221; was thrown about at least a hundred times later in the show.</p>
<p>Weak Anthropic Principle arguments are total BS. They explain nothing.</p>
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		<title>By: J Myers</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325427</link>
		<dc:creator>J Myers</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 18:33:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325427</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;A Survival Story with a &lt;strong&gt;Logical&lt;/strong&gt; Survivor&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I think you mean &lt;em&gt;rational&lt;/em&gt; survivor (as you correctly noted in the body of the post).

&lt;blockquote&gt;The anthropic principle: she survived because otherwise she would have been unable to explain why she’d survived.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This is a misrepresentation of the Anthropic Principle.  In this context, the analogy would go:

Theist:  Do you know how unlikely it is for someone to survive such an incident?  Her survival must have been orchestrated by a god!

Rationalist:  The &lt;em&gt;a priori&lt;/em&gt; probability of an event is irrelevant when discussing an event that has already transpired; however small the odds that this event might occur, we see that it &lt;em&gt;has&lt;/em&gt; occurred.  This does not imply any sort of god.

At least, this is the AP as Hawking described it in &lt;em&gt;A Brief History of Time;&lt;/em&gt; the term seems to have been extended to all manner of ideas, including use an alternate name for the theist&#039;s fine tuning argument.  As I learned it, the AP &lt;em&gt;countered&lt;/em&gt; the fine-tuning argument.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>A Survival Story with a <strong>Logical</strong> Survivor</p></blockquote>
<p>I think you mean <em>rational</em> survivor (as you correctly noted in the body of the post).</p>
<blockquote><p>The anthropic principle: she survived because otherwise she would have been unable to explain why she’d survived.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is a misrepresentation of the Anthropic Principle.  In this context, the analogy would go:</p>
<p>Theist:  Do you know how unlikely it is for someone to survive such an incident?  Her survival must have been orchestrated by a god!</p>
<p>Rationalist:  The <em>a priori</em> probability of an event is irrelevant when discussing an event that has already transpired; however small the odds that this event might occur, we see that it <em>has</em> occurred.  This does not imply any sort of god.</p>
<p>At least, this is the AP as Hawking described it in <em>A Brief History of Time;</em> the term seems to have been extended to all manner of ideas, including use an alternate name for the theist&#8217;s fine tuning argument.  As I learned it, the AP <em>countered</em> the fine-tuning argument.</p>
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		<title>By: Erik</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325378</link>
		<dc:creator>Erik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:10:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325378</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Great story, but unfortunately ‘miracle’ does come up in the text&lt;/blockquote&gt;

True, but in context that seems used more as common English idiom as opposed to a weighted use intimating supernatural intervention.  If I were on a plane crashing I&#039;d probably scream out &quot;Holy Shit!&quot; and even though I&#039;d probably shit my pants at the same time, there would be nothing holy about it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Great story, but unfortunately ‘miracle’ does come up in the text</p></blockquote>
<p>True, but in context that seems used more as common English idiom as opposed to a weighted use intimating supernatural intervention.  If I were on a plane crashing I&#8217;d probably scream out &#8220;Holy Shit!&#8221; and even though I&#8217;d probably shit my pants at the same time, there would be nothing holy about it.</p>
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		<title>By: Lambert</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325343</link>
		<dc:creator>Lambert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 11:41:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325343</guid>
		<description>Great story, but unfortunately &#039;miracle&#039; does come up in the text: &lt;em&gt;&quot;She fell more than three kilometers (two miles) into the jungle canopy but &lt;strong&gt;miraculously &lt;/strong&gt;survived with only minor injuries&quot;&lt;/em&gt; and also in the caption to the second photograph &lt;em&gt;&quot;Koepcke pictured before her &lt;strong&gt;miraculous &lt;/strong&gt;survival. &quot;&lt;/em&gt;  And later on we learn she was called the &lt;em&gt;&quot;&lt;strong&gt;miracle&lt;/strong&gt; girl&quot;&lt;/em&gt; at the time. Those dumb journalists just can&#039;t keep away from the word.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great story, but unfortunately &#8216;miracle&#8217; does come up in the text: <em>&#8220;She fell more than three kilometers (two miles) into the jungle canopy but <strong>miraculously </strong>survived with only minor injuries&#8221;</em> and also in the caption to the second photograph <em>&#8220;Koepcke pictured before her <strong>miraculous </strong>survival. &#8220;</em>  And later on we learn she was called the <em>&#8220;<strong>miracle</strong> girl&#8221;</em> at the time. Those dumb journalists just can&#8217;t keep away from the word.</p>
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		<title>By: JJ</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325331</link>
		<dc:creator>JJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 11:01:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325331</guid>
		<description>What an improbable incident.. a lightning drops an airplane, and someone who falls from it several miles, survives. I think both have happened only a few times during the whole aviation history. And here they happened together.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What an improbable incident.. a lightning drops an airplane, and someone who falls from it several miles, survives. I think both have happened only a few times during the whole aviation history. And here they happened together.</p>
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		<title>By: Corey Mondello</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325308</link>
		<dc:creator>Corey Mondello</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 08:13:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325308</guid>
		<description>&quot;lightning which had torn the &lt;strong&gt;right wing&lt;/strong&gt; off.&quot;

Right Wing....seems it was a &quot;sign&quot; to me...lol</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;lightning which had torn the <strong>right wing</strong> off.&#8221;</p>
<p>Right Wing&#8230;.seems it was a &#8220;sign&#8221; to me&#8230;lol</p>
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		<title>By: Alex</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325263</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:59:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325263</guid>
		<description>Entirely non-miraculous but no less wonderful or lucky. That makes me smile.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Entirely non-miraculous but no less wonderful or lucky. That makes me smile.</p>
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		<title>By: Miko</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325261</link>
		<dc:creator>Miko</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:55:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325261</guid>
		<description>The anthropic principle: she survived because otherwise she would have been unable to explain why she&#039;d survived.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The anthropic principle: she survived because otherwise she would have been unable to explain why she&#8217;d survived.</p>
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		<title>By: Noadi</title>
		<link>http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2009/07/03/a-survival-story-with-a-logical-survivor/#comment-325238</link>
		<dc:creator>Noadi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:25:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://friendlyatheist.com/?p=13267#comment-325238</guid>
		<description>I remember watching a documentary with recreations of what she went through years ago and it&#039;s always stuck with me. I believe that might have been the first time I was introduced to what bot flies are and why they make me never want to go to South America. 

It&#039;s amazing that she survived not just the crash but several days in the jungle with infected, parasite infested wounds, the odds were definitely not in her favor. Most girls the age she was at the time wouldn&#039;t have had either the skills or the presence of mind to be able to survive for those 10 days. That&#039;s she&#039;s also a rational thinker impresses me just that much more.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I remember watching a documentary with recreations of what she went through years ago and it&#8217;s always stuck with me. I believe that might have been the first time I was introduced to what bot flies are and why they make me never want to go to South America. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s amazing that she survived not just the crash but several days in the jungle with infected, parasite infested wounds, the odds were definitely not in her favor. Most girls the age she was at the time wouldn&#8217;t have had either the skills or the presence of mind to be able to survive for those 10 days. That&#8217;s she&#8217;s also a rational thinker impresses me just that much more.</p>
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