My predictions. . .

about the Iowa caucus were pretty much upheld, though both Obama and Huckabee won bigger than I expected.

So while I am on a roll, I will predict a little more: Giuliani’s campaign will go nowhere. He cannot just write off the heartland and the early primaries. He cannot win the Republican nomination by counting on his appeal in the blue states that never go Republican.

Other thoughts about the caucus and the election as it stands now?

About Gene Veith

Professor of Literature at Patrick Henry College, the Director of the Cranach Institute at Concordia Theological Seminary, a columnist for World Magazine and TableTalk, and the author of 18 books on different facets of Christianity & Culture.

  • Richard

    I see this as a big win for McCain; he is the only viable alternative to Huckabee.

  • Richard

    I see this as a big win for McCain; he is the only viable alternative to Huckabee.

  • Joe

    Boy were my predictions off. I thought I might be wrong but these margins are pretty significant. 8 and 9 points. That is huge. btw – I saw an entrence poll that said 45% of voters listed “values” as the most important issue to them.

    I think this blows both races completely wide open.

  • Joe

    Boy were my predictions off. I thought I might be wrong but these margins are pretty significant. 8 and 9 points. That is huge. btw – I saw an entrence poll that said 45% of voters listed “values” as the most important issue to them.

    I think this blows both races completely wide open.

  • Bror Erickson

    Richard,
    I don’t know, but I am thinking Huckabee and McCain will not be seen as alternatives to eachother. I predict they end up running on the same ticket.
    I further predict Hillary goes nowhere. Romney fades out.

  • Bror Erickson

    Richard,
    I don’t know, but I am thinking Huckabee and McCain will not be seen as alternatives to eachother. I predict they end up running on the same ticket.
    I further predict Hillary goes nowhere. Romney fades out.

  • Eric

    Did McCain get a symbolic third? I at least got that part right.

    Huckabee is running first for VP right now. If Huckabee has a minor lead going into a brokered convetion, will the SocCons accept being back benched to VP?

  • Eric

    Did McCain get a symbolic third? I at least got that part right.

    Huckabee is running first for VP right now. If Huckabee has a minor lead going into a brokered convetion, will the SocCons accept being back benched to VP?

  • http://www.cockahoop.com/ tODD

    Agreed that Giuliani is going nowhere (and his response to Iowa, “None of this worries me — Sept. 11, there were times I was worried.”, is pure self-caricature).

    I think the Democratic race is interesting. I see Edwards and Obama fighting for the same crowd — if one of them drops out, the other will benefit, not Hillary. So if one of them can show enough dominance (and Obama’s off to a good, if small, start), things may conspire to put non-Hillary support behind that man, and that could be huge. However, if Obama and Edwards stay locked in quasi-equal battle long enough, Hillary could win. That said, Obama’s looking good in NH and SC right now — if Edwards gets trumped decisively 3 times in a row (esp. in his southern backyard), I could see that sealing it for Obama. But I doubt we’ve begun to hear a response from the Clinton team to last night.

    On the Republican side, Romney is the establishment candidate, and Huckabee and McCain are fighting for the maverick status, though with rather different crowds. It’ll come down to one of those two versus Romney, though McCain may have a much better showing in NH (IA’s not his crowd). Still, I don’t see him pulling it off.

    Of course, I’m biased. Obama vs. McCain would be an election I’d actually be happy to vote in (and without a foregone conclusion as to whom I’d choose). Such elections, however, have a very bad track record of occurring.

  • http://www.cockahoop.com/ tODD

    Agreed that Giuliani is going nowhere (and his response to Iowa, “None of this worries me — Sept. 11, there were times I was worried.”, is pure self-caricature).

    I think the Democratic race is interesting. I see Edwards and Obama fighting for the same crowd — if one of them drops out, the other will benefit, not Hillary. So if one of them can show enough dominance (and Obama’s off to a good, if small, start), things may conspire to put non-Hillary support behind that man, and that could be huge. However, if Obama and Edwards stay locked in quasi-equal battle long enough, Hillary could win. That said, Obama’s looking good in NH and SC right now — if Edwards gets trumped decisively 3 times in a row (esp. in his southern backyard), I could see that sealing it for Obama. But I doubt we’ve begun to hear a response from the Clinton team to last night.

    On the Republican side, Romney is the establishment candidate, and Huckabee and McCain are fighting for the maverick status, though with rather different crowds. It’ll come down to one of those two versus Romney, though McCain may have a much better showing in NH (IA’s not his crowd). Still, I don’t see him pulling it off.

    Of course, I’m biased. Obama vs. McCain would be an election I’d actually be happy to vote in (and without a foregone conclusion as to whom I’d choose). Such elections, however, have a very bad track record of occurring.

  • Rob

    I’m surprised that no one has mentioned Ron Paul. He polled some fairly impressive numbers, considering the intense criticism he receives (when he is not being ignored). He could be somewhat of a spoiler in New Hampshire and other more “individualist” states.

    Of course, I would assume that my disappointment does not resonate here…

  • Rob

    I’m surprised that no one has mentioned Ron Paul. He polled some fairly impressive numbers, considering the intense criticism he receives (when he is not being ignored). He could be somewhat of a spoiler in New Hampshire and other more “individualist” states.

    Of course, I would assume that my disappointment does not resonate here…

  • kerner

    I find the Republican field fascinating, but also confusing. Huckabee is a Christian, but he’s not really conservative in other ways, and I don’t think he’s ready for foreign policy decisions. Giuliani is tough and a can-do sort of guy, but it would really hurt to vote for a pro-abort.

    Romney reminds me of Eddie Haskil. Can’t you just hear him?

    “That’s a lovely dress you’re wearing today, Mrs. Cleaver…did I mention that I’m pro-life now?”

    I have disagreed with McCain on a lot of things, but I believe he is basicly an honest man (he IS a politician, I haven’t forgotten that). Still, who else would go into Iowa and tell them that there should be an end to ethanol subsidies? McCain has always been pro-life.

    I started to research McCain and I learned some interesting things about his family. His kids mostly went to upper crust preppy schools in Phoenix or sometimes to elite Catholic schools, but the youngest two went to a Lutheran elementary school. I don’t know what that means exactly, but as a Lutheran myself I am going to try to find out more.

    McCain’s wife is heavily involved in private charities, and their youngest child was born in India and adopted by the McCains.

    Mrs. McCain is also chairman of her family’s business: the largest Anheuser-Busch distributor in Arizona. A BEER CONNECTION! What Lutheran can resist that?

    Finally, one of McCain’s sons is at the U.S. Naval Academy (big surprise there), but his youngest son joined the Marines right out of High School as an enlisted man. He may even have gone to Iraq, but I’m not sure about that. As a man whose children did the same thing, and DID serve in Iraq, that interests me a lot. It’s one thing to support the war. It’s a completely different thing to support the war when your children are involved. Believe me, I know.

    I can’t say I’m totally in McCain’s camp yet, but I am heavily leaning that way.

  • kerner

    I find the Republican field fascinating, but also confusing. Huckabee is a Christian, but he’s not really conservative in other ways, and I don’t think he’s ready for foreign policy decisions. Giuliani is tough and a can-do sort of guy, but it would really hurt to vote for a pro-abort.

    Romney reminds me of Eddie Haskil. Can’t you just hear him?

    “That’s a lovely dress you’re wearing today, Mrs. Cleaver…did I mention that I’m pro-life now?”

    I have disagreed with McCain on a lot of things, but I believe he is basicly an honest man (he IS a politician, I haven’t forgotten that). Still, who else would go into Iowa and tell them that there should be an end to ethanol subsidies? McCain has always been pro-life.

    I started to research McCain and I learned some interesting things about his family. His kids mostly went to upper crust preppy schools in Phoenix or sometimes to elite Catholic schools, but the youngest two went to a Lutheran elementary school. I don’t know what that means exactly, but as a Lutheran myself I am going to try to find out more.

    McCain’s wife is heavily involved in private charities, and their youngest child was born in India and adopted by the McCains.

    Mrs. McCain is also chairman of her family’s business: the largest Anheuser-Busch distributor in Arizona. A BEER CONNECTION! What Lutheran can resist that?

    Finally, one of McCain’s sons is at the U.S. Naval Academy (big surprise there), but his youngest son joined the Marines right out of High School as an enlisted man. He may even have gone to Iraq, but I’m not sure about that. As a man whose children did the same thing, and DID serve in Iraq, that interests me a lot. It’s one thing to support the war. It’s a completely different thing to support the war when your children are involved. Believe me, I know.

    I can’t say I’m totally in McCain’s camp yet, but I am heavily leaning that way.

  • Steve H

    Gee, Wally. How can I go to the carnival when Eddie Haskell stole all my money?

  • Steve H

    Gee, Wally. How can I go to the carnival when Eddie Haskell stole all my money?


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