Earlier I predicted that no matter how bad the economy is that President Obama will win a second term. I’ve been thinking about this some more and I’m even more convinced that I’m right (though, again, I wish I were wrong).
The reason “It’s the economy, stupid” won’t carry the day this time is that all of the Republican candidates, following correct free market principles, believe the main thing the government should do in the face of a terrible economy is to do either nothing or to do less than what the government is doing now. But the public wants the government to do something, anything. The Republican message for the government to “get out of the way” is not going to have much traction with voters who want the government to do even more. (And Obama will argue that he would indeed “do something” if it weren’t for the obstructionist conservatives in Congress, who, I further predict, will lose their majority in the House.)
Furthermore, the Republicans just do not have a candidate. I hang around some political activist types, but I have found no one with any zeal at all for any of the Republican presidential candidates, with the exception of Ron Paul supporters. I could be wrong about this. Maybe there are hordes of devoted fans of Perry, Romney, Bachman, Cain, or the others, who will follow them anywhere.Let’s test that here. Are any of you readers of this blog enthusiastic loyalists of any of the Republican presidential candidates (not counting Ron Paul, or if one of the campaigns is paying you to work for them). I don’t mean supporters of a candidate as the least bad candidate or as someone who might defeat Obama. I mean passionate supporters for positive reasons. The last election had candidates with that kind of support–Hilary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, certainly Barack Obama, but even John McCain. I can’t find that for any of the candidates today. But, again, I could be wrong. I hope I am. Prove me wrong. I’ll feel a lot better.