The mathematical model that has predicted the last eight presidential elections–based on economic conditions–is predicting a Romney win. I don’t believe, however, that it factors in Todd Akin, Republicans skinny-dipping in the Sea of Galilee, or general contempt for us conservatives. We’ll see who is right. Me or the machines. I hope the machines. But here is what the formula predicts:
Mitt Romney will win the popular vote and take the White House with more than 300 electoral votes, according to an election model that correctly determines the winner when applied to the last eight presidential elections.
The model, based on state-level economic data, predicts that President Barack Obama will lose nearly all key states that many observers view as toss-ups: North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. He’d also drop Pennsylvania and Minnesota, where polls indicate Obama is ahead, the study says.
The analysis, authored by Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, looks at unemployment rates and per capita income from the last 22 years and builds a model that would have accurately predicted each election. It also looks at other indicators, like which party currently holds the White House.
“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said in a University of Colorado press release. The unemployment rate is currently 8.3 percent nationally.
So Obama will lose states that he is currently ahead in. And he is ahead even though those states have dismal economies, as measured by the data the professors are using to predict his future defeat, which does not seem to be effecting voters yet, but presumably will later. We’ll see how that goes.
But the model worked for the last eight elections! My fear, though, is that we have crossed the event horizon of the black hole of postmodernism, so that as a culture we are oblivious not only to objective truth but now to objective facts, including those facts that impact us the most.