The electoral vote picture

 

 RCP Poll AverageElectoral Votes
StatesObamaRomneyObamaRomney
Colo.47.8%47.8%09
Fla.47.1%48.9%029
Iowa49.0%46.7%60
Nev.49.7%47.2%60
N.H.48.3%47.2%40
N.C.46.5%50.3%015
Ohio48.0%45.7%180
Va.46.8%48.0%013
Wis.49.3%47.0%100
Swing-State Votes4466
Leaning/Likely State Votes237191
Total Overall Votes281257

 

Swing-State Map, List & Polls – POLITICO.com.

That’s where things stand, according to data from the Real Clear Politics average of the nation’s polls, as put together by Politico.

Notice that if Romney takes Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, Obama will still get the 271 he needs to be re-elected.  If Romney wins Ohio, though, that state’s 18 electoral votes would give him 275 and the election.  You can do the math on other possible winning combinations. (E.g., Wisconsin plus any other state would win it for Romney.)  But, again, in all of those pivotal states, Obama is leading.

About Gene Veith

Professor of Literature at Patrick Henry College, the Director of the Cranach Institute at Concordia Theological Seminary, a columnist for World Magazine and TableTalk, and the author of 18 books on different facets of Christianity & Culture.

  • http://www.aclutteredmind.org Kevin Sorensen

    Over the weekend, several of Iowa’s leading newspapers in most of the major cities in Iowa have all come out and endorsed Romney. Amazing, I know, but if that would swing the vote in that state in Romney’s favor, that would move the 6 votes over. Then if Romney took Wisconsin or Ohio, it’s a lock.

  • http://www.aclutteredmind.org Kevin Sorensen

    Over the weekend, several of Iowa’s leading newspapers in most of the major cities in Iowa have all come out and endorsed Romney. Amazing, I know, but if that would swing the vote in that state in Romney’s favor, that would move the 6 votes over. Then if Romney took Wisconsin or Ohio, it’s a lock.

  • kerner
  • kerner
  • kerner

    And those of you with a little time on your hands might want to read this:

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/

  • kerner

    And those of you with a little time on your hands might want to read this:

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/

  • Steve Billingsley

    Thankfully we only have 8 more days for polling and horserace punidtry to endure.

    Sticking with my previous prediction. Romney will win and won’t be as close as many think. Soon enough we will know if I’m right or wrong.

  • Steve Billingsley

    Thankfully we only have 8 more days for polling and horserace punidtry to endure.

    Sticking with my previous prediction. Romney will win and won’t be as close as many think. Soon enough we will know if I’m right or wrong.

  • DonS

    It is quite possible that Obama will not receive any more electoral votes than the 237 on the list (and may lose some of those, such as MN, MI, PA). CO, FL, NC, and VA will almost certainly go to Romney. Rasmussen is showing Romney up 2 in OH today. That would put him over the top. WI is looking good for Romney, as are IA and NH. The only state still really leaning Obama on this list is NV, and only by a couple of points.

    The GWU/Politico/Battleground poll that came out today, conducted by a Democratic and a Republican pollster together, included commentary that, while the top line number was nominally +1 for Obama, the voter intensity data indicated that Romney would win the election 52-47. Gallup is showing the same 5 point lead for Romney, while Rasmussen has been swinging between +2 and +4 nationally. The state polling seems to be oversampling Democrats fairly consistently, and has been very much over estimating early voters, which has been throwing off their likely voter screens.

  • DonS

    It is quite possible that Obama will not receive any more electoral votes than the 237 on the list (and may lose some of those, such as MN, MI, PA). CO, FL, NC, and VA will almost certainly go to Romney. Rasmussen is showing Romney up 2 in OH today. That would put him over the top. WI is looking good for Romney, as are IA and NH. The only state still really leaning Obama on this list is NV, and only by a couple of points.

    The GWU/Politico/Battleground poll that came out today, conducted by a Democratic and a Republican pollster together, included commentary that, while the top line number was nominally +1 for Obama, the voter intensity data indicated that Romney would win the election 52-47. Gallup is showing the same 5 point lead for Romney, while Rasmussen has been swinging between +2 and +4 nationally. The state polling seems to be oversampling Democrats fairly consistently, and has been very much over estimating early voters, which has been throwing off their likely voter screens.

  • http://www.grailquestbooks.com Josh Radke

    Rasmussen is considered the most accurate when ranked among all the major polls that tracked the 2008 election. RCP uses averages of all polls and it’s a process that skews to the Democrat side of things because most major polls tend to over-sample Democrat voters.

    And as of today, Romney is +2 in Ohio and it’s dead even in Wisconsin.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

  • http://www.grailquestbooks.com Josh Radke

    Rasmussen is considered the most accurate when ranked among all the major polls that tracked the 2008 election. RCP uses averages of all polls and it’s a process that skews to the Democrat side of things because most major polls tend to over-sample Democrat voters.

    And as of today, Romney is +2 in Ohio and it’s dead even in Wisconsin.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

  • http://www.toddstadler.com/ tODD

    I, for one, cannot wait for the actual data to come in. Because I’m really tired of partisans yammering on about polls. They think they’re saying something other than stating and restating who they’re gonna vote for, but they’re not. So boring.

    My ballot’s already filled out. I just need to drop it off, probably tomorrow.

  • http://www.toddstadler.com/ tODD

    I, for one, cannot wait for the actual data to come in. Because I’m really tired of partisans yammering on about polls. They think they’re saying something other than stating and restating who they’re gonna vote for, but they’re not. So boring.

    My ballot’s already filled out. I just need to drop it off, probably tomorrow.

  • http://Www.gslcnm.com Pastor Spomer

    I’m with tODD. Wake me when it’s over.

  • http://Www.gslcnm.com Pastor Spomer

    I’m with tODD. Wake me when it’s over.

  • Andrew

    tODD – Tuesday 6 November is the first Tuesday in November. A far more pressing event happens closer to you than the presidential election. The running of the melbourne cup. Good luck getting any productive work done that afternoon :-)

    At least the hype for that only lasts a week or so, with it over in three minutes.

  • Andrew

    tODD – Tuesday 6 November is the first Tuesday in November. A far more pressing event happens closer to you than the presidential election. The running of the melbourne cup. Good luck getting any productive work done that afternoon :-)

    At least the hype for that only lasts a week or so, with it over in three minutes.


CLOSE | X

HIDE | X