Thought experiments with Trump and Bernie

Thought experiments with Trump and Bernie August 14, 2015

Donald Trump is leading big in New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina.  If he wins those early primaries, what’s to stop him?  Meanwhile, the Democrats’ outlier, avowed socialist Bernie Sanders, has passed Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire polls and is attracting huge crowds wherever he goes, unlike the former First Lady.  The unfair stereotypes of both parties–the Republican capitalist and the Democratic socialist–have come to life.

I’d like to propose a series of imaginative exercises.  Set aside the probability or improbability of either one of these candidates winning their primaries.  But what if they did?  Think about these questions and put your thoughts in the comments:

(1)  If these two were the nominees of their respective parties, which one would you vote for?

(2) Which one do you think would win?

(3) What would a Donald Trump presidency look like?  (In reality, and also if somehow he controlled Congress.)

(4)  What would a Bernie Sanders presidency look like?  (In reality, and also if somehow he controlled Congress.)

From Philip Rucker, It’s not just Trump: Voter anger fuels outsider candidates – The Washington Post:

This has become the summer of the political outsider, as a cast of interlopers upend and dominate the presidential nominating process in both parties.

The surging candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are fueled by people’s anger with the status quo and desire for authenticity in political leaders. Across the ideological spectrum, candidates are gaining traction by separating themselves from the political and economic system that many everyday Americans view as rigged against them.

“There are a lot of voters who are exceptionally frustrated with traditional politics and politicians and who quite simply feel failed by the system,” said pollster Geoff Garin, who advises Priorities USA Action, a super PAC supporting Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton. “A lot of this anger crosses party lines in the sense that it is directed at what people see as a concentration of wealth and power that leaves them holding the short end of the stick.”

Consider recent developments in the Republican race. Rick Perry was the governor of Texas for 14 years and had an enviable record on jobs to boot, but his presi­dential campaign is running on fumes. Sen. Lindsey O. Graham has served on Capitol Hill for a quarter-century, yet the South Carolina Republican barely cracks 1 percent in the polls.

In stark contrast, Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon with far more expertise in separating conjoined twins than in brokering trade agreements, is surging in recent polls and drew one of the biggest campaign crowds yet in Des Moines last week. Carly Fiorina, a businesswoman who has never held elective office, is also on the upswing.

Then there is Trump. The brash billionaire, who loudly brands politicians as “stupid” and “losers,” has rocketed to front-runner status.

On the left, Sanders has blazed a similar outside trail. The self-described socialist senator from Vermont, who routinely scolds the Washington and Wall Street establishments, is giving Clinton a scare. He has drawn massive overflow crowds — and on Wednesday, he surpassed Clinton in a New Hampshire poll for the first time.

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