Tonight the presidential campaign, that has seemingly been going on for so long, gets started in earnest with the Iowa caucuses. Then things will happen fast, with the New Hampshire primary on February 9 and the Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary both on February 20. The others will come right after another.
As of today, polls show Trump and Clinton with narrow leads, but polls don’t mean that much in Iowa. This is a caucus, in which people go to other people’s homes, try to persuade each other, and then choose delegates. It all depends on who shows up. And often, not many do. (Only 6% of eligible Republican voters showed up in 2012). So the results are pretty much up in the air.
While it’s true that the number of delegates will be small, the stakes are large: Lots of Republicans are waiting to see from these early caucuses and primaries who emerges as the best alternative to Trump, whereupon they will rally around him. And a Saunders victory–or even a very good showing–will send more money his way, making Democrats think Hillary Clinton isn’t inevitable after all.
Do you live in Iowa? If so, please tell us what these things are like. Also, what do you think will happen? Make your predictions here. (After the jump, Politico gives 6 reasons why the Iowa polls don’t necessarily tell us much.)
From Steven Shephard, 6 problems with the Iowa polls, Politico:
1. It’s a caucus – not a primary.
Participating in a caucus is harder than voting in a primary election. Unlike primaries, caucus voters can only cast their ballots in the evening, at a designated time. And the process is far more time consuming than arriving at the local polling place and pulling the lever. That has implications for turnout.
But what really complicates things for pollsters is the very nature of the caucuses, where voters can and sometime do change their minds during the event. While the process is different for each party, both Democratic and Republican caucuses are communal experiences. Most states don’t allow “electioneering” within polling places, but the caucuses encourage it. Supporters give speeches, making the case for their candidates. In the Democratic caucuses, voters backing candidates who fail to meet a viability threshold in an initial vote – usually 15 percent – are lobbied to pick another candidate in the second round of voting.
Pollsters measure the intentions of voters in the days leading up to the caucuses. Even the entrance polls, which will be cited on all the cable-news networks Monday night, ask caucus-goers their vote preferences when they arrive. But none of that accounts for people who switch to another candidate during the caucus.
[Keep reading. . .]
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