Democrats need to win 30 seats to assume control of the House of Representatives, and that doesn’t appear likely based on numbers crunching by such groups as The Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics. The Republican advantage is much smaller in the 100-member Senate, however — 54 seats are held by GOP members.
Democrats need to pick up only four spots on Nov. 8 to produce a 50-50 split. That would give them control of the Senate if Clinton wins the presidency, because ties are split by the vice president.
This is why races such as [New Hampshire incumbent Kelly] Ayotte’s are so important. Ayotte’s opponent is Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, whom the Union Leader called “a laughing stock” but who enjoys a lead in the polls. How big a lead is difficult to ascertain. A poll by a New Hampshire television station last week had Hassan up by 8 points; RealClearPolitics has Ayotte trailing by 2 points.
This is one of seven races presently considered toss-ups by RCP. Two of the others are for open seats: in Indiana, which is now held by a Republican, and Nevada, where Democrat Harry Reid is leaving (thank goodness). The four others toss-ups are all in races for seats held by Republicans: Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Richard Burr in North Carolina, Marco Rubio in Florida and Roy Blunt in Missouri.
The largest lead any of those GOP incumbents holds, according to RealClearPolitics averages, is Rubio’s 3.4-point edge over Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy. Burr is up by 2.8 over Deborah Ross, Toomey leads by fewer than 2 points over 2014 gubernatorial candidate Katie McGinty, and Blunt’s lead over Missouri’s youthful (he’s 35) secretary of state, Jason Kander, is just 1 point.
In the races for the open seats, Republican Todd Young trails former two-term Sen. Evan Bayh by 4.3 in Indiana, and Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Heck trails Catherine Cortez Masto by 2.3 in Nevada.
In addition, two Senate seats now held by Republicans are leaning Democratic, according to RCP — in Wisconson, where Ron Johnson trails the man he defeated six years ago, former three-term Sen. Russ Feingold, by 5.3 points (although Johnson has surged of late), and in Illinois where Mark Kirk is down by 7 points to U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth.
From GOP has work cut out to maintain U.S. Senate edge | News OK:
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