Tonight the presidential campaign, that has seemingly been going on for so long, gets started in earnest with the Iowa caucuses. Then things will happen fast, with the New Hampshire primary on February 9 and the Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary both on February 20. The others will come right after another.
As of today, polls show Trump and Clinton with narrow leads, but polls don’t mean that much in Iowa. This is a caucus, in which people go to other people’s homes, try to persuade each other, and then choose delegates. It all depends on who shows up. And often, not many do. (Only 6% of eligible Republican voters showed up in 2012). So the results are pretty much up in the air.
While it’s true that the number of delegates will be small, the stakes are large: Lots of Republicans are waiting to see from these early caucuses and primaries who emerges as the best alternative to Trump, whereupon they will rally around him. And a Saunders victory–or even a very good showing–will send more money his way, making Democrats think Hillary Clinton isn’t inevitable after all.
Do you live in Iowa? If so, please tell us what these things are like. Also, what do you think will happen? Make your predictions here. (After the jump, Politico gives 6 reasons why the Iowa polls don’t necessarily tell us much.) [Read more...]