Whither Republicans? Whither Democrats?

Last Summer, liberal pundits were looking forward to “the end of the Republican party.”  That Republicans were doomed, due to the inexplicable nomination of Donald Trump and his inevitable defeat, was the expectation even of many Republicans up until election day.

But the day after the election, everything had reversed.  The Republicans have the presidency, the House, the Senate, and a Supreme Court pick.  Also 33 governors (picking up three yesterday) and 67 state legislatures.

Now it’s the Democrats that are “in crisis.”

Now I do think both parties have some soul-searching to do.  Some thoughts after the jump. [Read more…]

President Donald Trump

Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.

The polls were wrong; the pundits were wrong; even many of his supporters didn’t think he could actually win.  But he did.

Not only was he an unconventional candidate–having never run for public office; having never been in military command like other non-politicians who have been president–with qualities that, you would think, would prevent him from being elected to anything (being brazenly “politically incorrect” in his words and deeds).  He ran what most experts were calling an inept campaign.  He raised little money, ran few ads, had no ground game to get out supporters, dispensed with the high-tech lists and analysis that was supposed to be the hallmark of a 21st century political campaign.  In the weeks before the campaign, he had rallies in solidly democratic states that he supposedly had no hope of winning instead of battleground states that he might hope to win.  But he won. [Read more…]

People who got it wrong

Being one of the people who got it wrong by being taken by surprise at Donald Trump’s election, perhaps I can justify, in a small way, the wicked kick I am getting at the reaction of the experts who just cannot get their minds around Trump’s election.  I’ll give you a sampling after the jump. [Read more…]

Congress, marijuana, beer, and other election results

The presidency was not the only important election last night.

Republicans kept control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  We no longer will have a divided government.  Which means that the Republican administration could, conceivably, get something done.  (Although gridlock is not always a bad thing.) [Read more…]

Liveblogging the election

My custom has long been to stay up until the wee hours watching the election returns.  That will be much easier this year, since I’m in Australia.  Polls will close starting at about mid-morning, here in Oz time, where it will already be Wednesday.  The American election is of enormous interest here–as they say, when America sneezes, Australia catches a cold–so the TV networks are planning comprehensive coverage.  We’ll see what that means, but it looks like I can follow the election through the morning and into the early afternoon.  So we can do a LIVE BLOG!

I’m not saying that I will be commenting minute by minute, but I’ll be coming to this post and using the comments to talk about whatever happens.  Please do the same.  Comment here about election day, the latest developments, the trends you are noting, the surprises, etc.   I’ll be doing that when I can, though I’m sure the news coverage in Australia will not be as full or as informed as what you will be getting.  So please contribute to this.  We can also “reply” to each other, thus discussing information as it comes up.

This has been a strange and unpredictable election year, so we can expect its culmination on Election Day to be similarly strange and unpredictable.  Whatever happens, we can talk about it here.

What do you think will happen today?

So what are your election day predictions?  Who will win?  By what margin?  Will the winner in electoral college votes win the popular vote?  Will the election be disputed?  Which party will win the House of Representatives and the Senate?  What else are you expecting?  (Will the polls be vindicated or proven wrong?  Will any “blue states” break for Trump?  Will any “red states” turn to Clinton?)

You don’t have to answer all of those questions, just record what you think will happen.  We will then honor the best prognosticator, once the election is decided.  (Or will it be decided today after all?)