Christie won’t run as lead reshuffles

Chris Christie announced that he will not run for president.  Meanwhile, Rick Perry is fading fast, and Herman Cain has caught up with him, moving into a tie for second place.  In first place by a lot:  Mitt Romney.

Here are  details from the latest polls:

Among announced candidates — without Christie or Palin in the race — Romney leads with 25 percent, which is identical to his support from a month ago. Perry and Cain are tied for second with 16 percent, numbers representing a 13-point drop for Perry and a 12-point rise for Cain since early September.

Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is the only other candidate in double figures, at 11 percent. Just behind him are former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), both with 7 percent. Gingrich’s support has held steady through the late summer. Bachmann’s numbers fell sharply after Perry announced his candidacy.

Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. bring up the rear, with Santorum at 2 percent and Huntsman at 1 percent.

See:

Chris Christie not running for president in 2012 – The Washington Post.

Rick Perry slips, Herman Cain rises

UPDATE:  A CBS poll has Cain tied with Romney for the lead at 17%!

A tea party of the left

Since the middle of September, some 1000 protesters have been demonstrating on Wall Street, denouncing big business and high finance, calling for more regulations on banks and corporations, an end to housing foreclosures, and more taxes on the rich. The protest movement is called Occupy Wall Street.

The protests have been growing.  This weekend 700 demonstrators were arrested on Brooklyn Bridge.  The movement has spread to Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, and other cities.  Celebrities from Roseanne Barr to Michael Moore are supporting the cause.  So are intellectuals such as Salman Rushdie, Noam Chomsky,  and Cornell West.   Reportedly, some labor unions are considering getting involved.

Occupy Wall Street is claiming kinship with the Arab Spring.

See Occupy Wall Street – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Is this potentially the tea party of the left that liberals have been calling for?  Do you think this will bring new life to political liberalism?  Is there actually an underlying kinship between those who protest big government and those who protest big business?

Doubling down on my prediction

Earlier I predicted that no matter how bad the economy is that President Obama will win a second term.  I’ve been thinking about this some more and I’m even more convinced that I’m right (though, again, I wish I were wrong).

The reason “It’s the economy, stupid” won’t carry the day this time is that all of the Republican candidates, following correct free market principles, believe the main thing the government should do in the face of a terrible economy is to do either nothing or to do less than what the government is doing now.   But the public wants the government to do something, anything.   The Republican message for the government to “get out of the way” is not going to have much traction with voters who want the government to do even more.  (And Obama will argue that he would indeed “do something” if it weren’t for the obstructionist conservatives in Congress, who, I further predict, will lose their majority in the House.)

Furthermore, the Republicans just do not have a candidate.  I hang around some political activist types, but I have found no one with any zeal at all for any of the Republican presidential candidates, with the exception of Ron Paul supporters.  I could be wrong about this.  Maybe there are hordes of devoted fans of Perry, Romney, Bachman, Cain, or the others, who will follow them anywhere.

Let’s test that here.  Are any of you readers of this blog enthusiastic loyalists of any of the Republican presidential candidates  (not counting Ron Paul, or if one of the campaigns is paying you to work for  them).  I don’t mean supporters of a candidate as the least bad candidate or as someone who might defeat Obama.  I mean passionate supporters for positive reasons.  The last election had candidates with that kind of support–Hilary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, certainly Barack Obama, but even John McCain.   I can’t find that for any of the candidates today.  But, again, I could be wrong.  I hope I am.  Prove me wrong.  I’ll feel a lot better.

Christie as the next knight on the white horse

Now Republicans who realize that they still don’t have a candidate who can beat President Obama are fantasizing about New Jersey governor Chris Christie entering the race.  What would you think of him as a presidential candidate?

After Speech, Chris Christie Revels in Pleas to Run – NYTimes.com.

Raising Cain

The winner of the Republican straw poll in Florida was not Perry and not Romney, but Herman Cain.  The African-American businessman took 37% of the vote, better than the two ostensible front-runners combined.

One could say that the vote is meaningless.  It is cast by Republican activists, not the general public, who have to pay for the privilege.  And yet the Florida straw poll, which has consistently forecast the eventual Republican nominee, does tell us this:  Republican activists do not think much of any of the “leading” candidates.

Virtually everyone likes Cain, but assumes that it would be impossible for the former Baptist minister and Godfather Pizza CEO could win the election.  After all, he has never held elective office before.

But now a public opinion poll, taken before the straw vote, has him ahead of the pack:

A new Zogby poll puts Herman Cain​ at the top of the Republican field, as the top choice of 28% of poll respondents. (IBOPE Zogby International says the polling sample consists of “all likely voters and of likely Republican primary voters.”)

Rounding out the top three are Rick Perry at 18%, and Mitt Romney at 17%. Fourth place goes to Ron Paul at 11%. Paul’s the most solid performer in Zogby’s polling history for the 2012 GOP race – his 11% might as well be chiseled in stone.

Interestingly, this poll was conducted after the Orlando GOP debate, but before Cain won the Florida straw poll. It’s a huge surge for Cain, who was polling at 12% just two weeks previously, and was floating at a campaign low of 8% two weeks before that. Aside from that bitter 8% number, Cain has generally done quite well in the Zogby poll, usually good enough for second or third place.

On the other hand, Rick Perry’s numbers in the Zogby poll have cratered, falling 19% in just two weeks. His debut last month was also his high-water mark thus far, when Zogby had him at 41%.

Michelle Bachmann has also been slipping steadily, chugging in at 4%. That puts her just below Jon Huntsman, which is the same way she finished the Florida straw poll. Bachmann was actually the leading candidate in Zogby’s polling from June 21 through July 25… then she plunged to 9% in the next poll and continued sliding down from there.

Romney’s been holding fairly steady in the Zogby poll. He bounces a few points up and down, but seems to hover in the 15-17% range.

Zogby’s also got President Obama’s approval rating at 42%, with 57% disapproval. That’s actually a bit better than his September 5 low of 39-61. His poor approval numbers seem to hold fairly steady, while his disapproval bounces around.

via Herman Cain Leads Republican Field In Zogby Poll – HUMAN EVENTS.

Could Herman Cain, the African-American businessman, become the Republican presidential nominee?  And the next President?

 

Last night’s debate

This is the place to comment on last night’s debate between the Republican presidential contenders.  Are things clarifying for you?  Has Perry lost some of his luster?  Does Romney look better?  What’s wrong with Santorum?  Should Republicans reconsider  Gingrich?  Has Paul lost any of his sheen?  Have any of you changed your mind about whom to support?


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