How Gallup blew the presidential election polling

On the eve of the last election, the venerable polling firm Gallup predicted that Mitt Romney would beat Obama 49% to 48%.  Actually, Obama won, 52%-48%.  The company has been studying what went wrong.  Despite Republican complaints that pollsters were using methods that were undercounting conservatives, in fact, Gallup, at least, was over-counting them.  After the jump, the mistakes Gallup researchers have identified. [Read more...]


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