Today’s politics rely a great deal on polls. The problem is, election polling–which has had some spectacular failures lately–is faced with two huge problems:
(1) Cell phone usage has shot up, to the point that 47% of the population no longer has a land line. And robo-calling of cell phone numbers is illegal.
(2) The response rate to polls has plummeted. In the 1970s, the percentage of people who responded to pollster’s surveys was 80%. Today, it is 8%.
Thus, a recent national political poll conducted by NBC was based on just 236 responses! [Read more…]