Today’s primaries

We had “Super Tuesday.”  They are calling today “Mega Tuesday.”  Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri will be voting for the Republican and Democratic candidates.  This is a big haul.  And Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states.  If Marco Rubio cannot win his own state with its 99 delegates–and the polls say he won’t–he is finished.  If John Kasich cannot win his own state–and polls show him running neck and neck with Donald Trump–he is finished.  And if Trump wins them both, the Republican race is pretty much finished, as his lead in delegates will be almost insurmountable.

But Illinois, North Carolina, and Missouri together have more delegates than Florida and Ohio, though they will be awarded proportionally.  (See the details after the jump.)  That means that Cruz could also have a big haul.

After today, it will probably be a two-man race between Trump and Ted Cruz.  Maybe Cruz can capture the anti-Trump vote, though the Republican establishment doesn’t like him much either.  Even then, Trump may be impossible to catch.

And for Democrats, Bernie Sanders could emerge as the clear people’s choice, even though Hillary Clinton has the Democratic machine on her side.  Or maybe she can pick up enough votes that she won’t have to depend on the super-delegates to give her the nomination.

I’ll post the results as soon as I know them, and we can discuss the outcome. [Read more…]

Funding weaker opponents

In some creative campaign finance shenanigans, some Democratic candidates have been giving financial and advertising support to Republicans whom they think would be easier to defeat than their primary opponents.  This includes funding attack ads casting doubt on whether the frontrunner is conservative enough, all in a ploy to get the more conservative and easier-to-beat candidate on the ticket. [Read more…]

Primaries reject establishment politics

Talk about “what’s in a name,” as in the post below.  Consider naming your boy “Rand.”  That is what small-government congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul did.  It seems exceedingly odd for a Christian to name his kid after the militantly atheistic virtue-of-selfishness philosopher Ayn Rand.  (And are there girls named “Ayn”?)

Anyway, Rand Paul has won the Republican senate primary in Kentucky.  He is the Tea Party candidate, defeating  the Republican establishment’s choice, Trey Grayson.

Also, long-time Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, who changed from being a Republican to being a Democrat so as to give his new party a filibuster-busting super-majority, got beat.  This, despite the personal endorsement of President Obama and the Democratic national machine, seeking to reward him for his treachery.  He was beaten in the primary by Congressman Joe Sestak, who will be up against Republican Pat Toomey in what is expected to be a close race.

In Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln was forced into a run-off with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.  The Democrats did hold on to the late John Murtha’s congressional seat from Pennsylvania in a mid-term election.

But virtually all of the winners, Republicans and Democrats (who in primary elections, of course, are not running against each other, but against other members of their own party) were running anti-Washington, anti-political establishment  campaigns.

Sen. Arlen Specter loses Pennsylvania primary; Rand Paul wins in Kentucky.