Since my first Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality thread, two more chapters have been posted. For reasons I explain in the comments of the first thread, my original predictions look completely wrong, but there’s another update coming tomorrow, so let’s make more anyways!
Harry has a lot of options at this point, and if Eliezer wanted him to come up with a brilliant, perfect solution, he could. Harry has, among other things, an extensive knowledge of Muggle science, a time turner, the invisibility cloak, the ability to do partial transfigurations, the ability to destroy dementors, and the ability to control dementors mentally.
One strategy here is to launch a second rescue mission to Azkaban. It would likely be harder than the first time, especially if he didn’t have Quirrell’s help, but he could take more chances with regards to getting caught, because if he did get caught it would be easier to convince people he had good motives. Heck, he could even openly threaten to destroy Azkaban if Hermione is put there. At this point, I think such a threat might be credible.But given the title of the sequence (“Taboo Tradeoffs”), what I think he’ll actually do is frame Lucius for framing Hermione. He already despises Lucius, has told Lucius he will become his enemy for sending Hermione to Azkaban, and has already said, in reference to another Death Eater, “I can do anything I want to him without ethical problems.” Best of all, Lucius’ blood-purism, combined with Hermione’s friendship with Draco, gives him a motive for framing her!
But how will Harry do it? The Weasley twins could probably do it for him, but seem unlikely to go along with such a plan. Quirrell(mort) would probably be delighted to help Harry with something so morally dubious, but Harry would ask him, given that there’s no benefit to Quirrell as far as Harry knows? Or might it all come down to a clever use of the Time Turner? Probably option #2, but we’ll see.