More HPMOR predictions!

Since my first Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality thread, two more chapters have been posted. For reasons I explain in the comments of the first thread, my original predictions look completely wrong, but there’s another update coming tomorrow, so let’s make more anyways!

Harry has a lot of options at this point, and if Eliezer wanted him to come up with a brilliant, perfect solution, he could. Harry has, among other things, an extensive knowledge of Muggle science, a time turner, the invisibility cloak, the ability to do partial transfigurations, the ability to destroy dementors, and the ability to control dementors mentally.

One strategy here is to launch a second rescue mission to Azkaban. It would likely be harder than the first time, especially if he didn’t have Quirrell’s help, but he could take more chances with regards to getting caught, because if he did get caught it would be easier to convince people he had good motives. Heck, he could even openly threaten to destroy Azkaban if Hermione is put there. At this point, I think such a threat might be credible.

But given the title of the sequence (“Taboo Tradeoffs”), what I think he’ll actually do is frame Lucius for framing Hermione. He already despises Lucius, has told Lucius he will become his enemy for sending Hermione to Azkaban, and has already said, in reference to another Death Eater, “I can do anything I want to him without ethical problems.” Best of all, Lucius’ blood-purism, combined with Hermione’s friendship with Draco, gives him a motive for framing her!

But how will Harry do it? The Weasley twins could probably do it for him, but seem unlikely to go along with such a plan. Quirrell(mort) would probably be delighted to help Harry with something so morally dubious, but Harry would ask him, given that there’s no benefit to Quirrell as far as Harry knows? Or might it all come down to a clever use of the Time Turner? Probably option #2, but we’ll see.

How selfish are voters?
The Avengers, or why are good superhero movies so hard to come by?
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality prediction thread
I just saw Amazing Spiderman not in 2D, not in 3D, but in 4D!
  • Robert B.

    The timing suggests that Harry is looking to prevent Hermione from going to Azkaban, not breaking her out later. He’s looking for a plan that will work in less than a minute. (And remember the lock on his Time Turner. It doesn’t work until 9 pm, which means Harry can’t travel back before 3 pm. The trial started at noon and I don’t get the impression that it has gone on for three hours.)

    Personally, I’ve been wondering how Hermione is supposed to have even known a curse so perfect for killing a Hogwarts student. Even setting aside the obscurity factor, it sounds at least as hard as the Stunning Hex – recall that the first time Hermione cast that spell, she had deliberately memorized it beforehand, and even so she had to rehearse it for several seconds before she tried to cast, and even then she wasn’t sure it would work. Hermione could only have cast that spell at Draco as a premeditated murder. But the Legilimens only saw her obsessing over Draco, not studying ways to kill him. Hermione’s testimony under Veritaserum did not mention that she took a few seconds to practice the spell before casting, or that it took a couple tries; she said she had a “fit of sudden anger” and just did it.

    My prediction for the first line of the new chapter: “‘Hermione Granger. How does one cast the Blood-Cooling Charm?’” She either won’t be able to answer, or won’t be able to demonstrate, even under Veritaserum/Imperio. If I was the writer, I’d set it up so that Harry volunteered to have Hermione try to cast the spell at him.

  • Chris Hallquist

    I think maybe we’re meant to understand that that was included in the false memory charm. But who knows.