Experts expect AI around mid-century, significant risk of bad outcomes

From a new paper by Nick Bostrom:

These results should be taken with some grains of salt, but we think it is fair to say that the results show an agreement among experts that AI systems will probably reach overall human ability around 2040-50, certainly (with 90% probability) by 2075. From reaching human ability, it will move on to superintelligence in 2 years (10%) to 30 years (75%) thereafter. Nearly one third of experts expect this development to be ‘bad’ (13%) or ‘extremely bad’ (18%) for humanity.

…We could also put this more modestly and still come to an alarming conclusion: We know of no compelling reason to say that progress in AI will grind to a halt (though deep new insights might be needed) and we know of no compelling reason that superintelligent systems will be good for humanity.


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