Philosophical incompetence as an existential risk

Note: the following is a revised version of a 15-minute lightning talk I wrote for the 2014 Effective Altruism Summit in Berkeley, California.

Hi. My name is Chris Hallquist. Once upon a time, I was a PhD student at the university of Notre Dame. Then I dropped out, wandered the earth for three years, and eventually came to the Bay Area to become a software engineer.

In my most cynical moments as a philosophy student, I thought, “gee, all these questions academic philosophers study don’t matter for anything, none of them have any idea what the right answers are anyway, and they don’t even have a good plan making progress on the issues.”

Let me give an example. In undergrad, I took a metaphysics seminar where, I kid you not, we spent a significant percentage of the semester debating whether if you went through the Star Transporter, it’s really you that comes out on the other end.

This was not because the professor was a big Trekkie. It turns out that professional philosophers spend a lot of time talking about the Star Trek transporter. When did their big survey of the opinions of professional philosophers, the transporter question was one of the questions they decided they needed to have on there, alongside questions like “Does God exist?”

And the philosophical literature on the transporter is huge, so it took a lot of time to cover even a portion of it in class. We went round and round talking about it as a class. One argument would make us think one thing, and then the next variation on the thought experiment and make us think the opposite. In the end, I didn’t know what to think, but I decided the issue must not be very important.

Okay, that’s my most cynical moments as a philosophy student. Now let me tell you about my most terrified moments. In my most terrified moments, I think all these academic philosophers don’t have any idea what they’re talking about, they don’t even have a good plan for making progress, and many of the questions are matters of life or death.

For example. The Star Trek transporter is a fantasy. But there’s good reason to think that in principle we could build an extremely accurate computer model of your brain, and other people would be able to talk to it as if it were you. This is called mind uploading or brain emulation.

And then the question is, is the computer model, upload, emulation, whatever you call it, really you? It turns out this question is really hard to answer, for the same reasons the Star Trek transporter question is hard to answer. Let me give you just a taste of the kind of problems you run into: in Star Trek, there are a couple episodes where a transporter accidentally makes a duplicate of someone. So which one is the “real” original person?

You get the same problem with mind uploading, because the whole point of software is it can be copied. If you think an upload of you is really you, what about when we make a copy? Surely they can’t both be numerically identical to you.

So one proposal is that what matters is not numerical identity, but whether the copies in some sense “survive” you. But many people don’t like that solution. I won’t go into greater detail, because the rabbit hole gets very deep very fast. The point is, it’s a hard question, and could literally be a matter of life or death—is uploading a path to immortality, or are you dead?

This “is it really you” question may not even be the worst question that would be raised by brain emulations. I can almost convince myself the “is it really you” question doesn’t matter. Maybe all that matters is happiness, and it doesn’t matter so much if the happy people existing at one time are the same as the happy people that existed in the past.

A lot of people don’t like that kind of solution either. But even if it works for personal identity, there are other questions like “can the emulation feel pain?” and “can it feel pleasure?”, which seem equally puzzling, and even harder to dismiss as not mattering.

Oh, and by the way, if we ever did develop mind uploading, we might end up without much of a choice as to whether to upload. Uploads might be a lot cheaper to run than the cost of keeping humans alive, so there could be intense economic pressure for everyone to upload. That’s without a superintelligent AI taking over the world and forcing everyone to upload.

Now: so we’ve got these crazy thought experiments. Philosophers like talking about them a lot. It might seem like a waste of time. But it turns out there’s reason to think advances in technology could effectively make these thought experiments a reality. I’ve only given you the transporter/brain emulation problem, because I’m trying to keep this short, but you could give others.

If you’ve ever heard the term “population ethics,” that’s another major source of big scary issues that are mostly theoretical now but which we might have to make decisions on in the future. In a world of brain emulations, because brain emulations could be copied, it might be very easy to increase the population to the point where most people are living at the subsistence level.

Robin Hanson, an economist who works on the economics of brain emulations, thinks that would actually be a fine outcome, but many people aren’t so sure. This problem leads to tricky questions philosophical questions such as total utilitarianism vs. average utilitarianism. See the Stanford Encyclopedia article on the repugnant conclusion if you want to learn more.

Now I’ve said professional philosophers don’t know what they’re talking about when it comes to these questions. And you might expect me to now tell you that we Effective Altruists can do better, or maybe that I can do better. But actually, as far as I can tell, no one knows what they’re talking about when it comes to these really hard philosophical questions.

Eliezer Yudkowsky has, a few times, alluded to thinking he has a solution to the puzzle of qualia which he hasn’t written up because he thinks his metaethics sequence was so badly misunderstood that anything he said about consciousness would be similarly misunderstood.

Personally, I think Eliezer is very smart and has good insights (I seem to be in the minority that liked the metaethics sequence). I actually think there might be a tiny chance he’s figured out qualia (something I wouldn’t grant to anyone else who made such a claim). But I also think these issues are way too hard to trust any one person to get it right all by themselves, and I wish Eliezer would discuss his philosophical ideas with as many other smart people as possible.

One thing I think often goes wrong in the EA movement here is that there will be one very smart person who takes it upon themselves to explain a philosophical issue to their fellow EAs, and that’s necessary work, because there’s very little good popular philosophy. And then this one very smart person will advocate for their view of the issue very persuasively.

In the EA context, maybe we’re talking about an argument for consequentialism. And then other EAs will assume this very smart person must be right, consequentialism must be true, because people haven’t gone and read the original academic publications by other very smart people arguing for other views.

In retrospect, spending five and a half years of my life studying philosophy may not have been the best use of my time. But it did give me a deep, gut level understanding of what it’s like to hear an extremely persuasive argument for one view immediately followed by an equally persuasive argument for the opposite view.

When Peter Thiel advocated for intellectual courage yesterday, that struck me as dangerously misguided. When you look around you and everyone else seems completely confused about an issue, the correct response is not to say “we need courage here,” the correct response is to be very afraid.

(Notice that the business analogy doesn’t work—it can make sense to bravely try a business idea even though you realize it probably won’t work, but you can’t bravely believe an idea even though you realize it’s probably wrong. And you can test a probably-wrong scientific hypothesis, but we don’t yet know how to run good tests of philosophical ideas.)

So what do we do about this? Well, what professional philosophers do right now is they spend a lot of time arguing about their opinions with other professional philosophers. This is probably actually better than nothing.

If you’re an amateur philosophy buff inclined to have strong philosophical opinions, I encourage you to do this, arguing not just with other people in the EA movement, or the rationalist movement, but argue with other smart, well-informed people who might have different biases than you do. At least it might reduce overconfidence.

Another thing to do is to try to look for questions that are in the vicinity of the philosophical questions you want to answer, but aren’t the exact same questions that philosophers have been stuck on for a long time.

Nick Bostrom, who’s a philosophy professor at Oxford and director of the Future of Humanity institute, seems to do this a lot. He just put a new book out called Superintelligence, and among other things talks about brain emulations and how having them might lead to bad outcomes, but if you read the book carefully you’ll notice he doesn’t try to frame a general theory of, say, under what circumstances emulations, or other AIs, would and would not be conscious.

This is OK, because the focus of Superintelligence is elsewhere, on issues academic philosophers don’t normally discuss. Bostrom says lots of smart stuff on these topics. So maybe we can make progress doing the Nick Bostrom thing, finding questions philosophers haven’t gotten stuck on yet. On the other hand, it doesn’t solve our original questions, which still look important to solve.

Bostrom’s answer is that he hopes we can build an AI that will be able to solve all our philosophical problems for us. He argues we shouldn’t try to program an AI with all the answers to all the philosophical questions that would matter to it. Rather, we should build an AI that’s “close enough” that it can correct any errors in its own initial design.

This is a nice idea. It would be great if it worked. But I worry that humanity’s current state of philosophical confusion significantly increases the risk of building AIs that aren’t “close enough” and can’t fix their errors, and end up wanting to fill the world with non-sentient things that the AIs confusedly think are happy people, or something like that.

Another thing that looks kind of promising to me is experimental philosophy, or x-phi. The idea is, philosophers often try to settle arguments by saying, “well, intuitively it seems like…” Fill in the blank. Someone finally got the bright idea that instead of philosophers just using their own intuitions, they should ask statistically meaningful samples of people who aren’t philosophers what their intuitions are.

I’ve been repeatedly surprised by how much light experimental philosophy seems to shed on certain issues. If you’re interested in this, I’d look at Eddy Nahmias’ work on free will, or Joshua Greene’s work on ethics. The worry here, though, is that so few people are doing experimental philosophy, that no one is doing the experiments that might point in the opposite direction from Eddy Nahmias’ experiments, or Joshua Greene’s experiments.

Experimental philosophy may also work better for some issues with others. With AI consciousness, the problem is that only crazy people doubt that other humans are conscious, and most people are pretty sure chimpanzees are conscious, and maybe we’re not sure about insects, and then we’re pretty sure rocks aren’t conscious. That’s pretty straightforward. The problem is extrapolating from that narrow sample of things that happen to have evolved on earth, to a perfectly general theory that will tell us about the consciousness of any AI design you might dream up.

Now, there are actually scientists trying to do that. You can read articles by neuroscientists talking about what theories of consciousness are supposed to be winning the empirical predictions test, and maybe it’s a review article citing tons of sources to back up its conclusions. But then you realize different neuroscientists have different ideas about which theory of consciousness is winning, and what you thought was an empirical question, is actually a philosophical debate about which observations would support which theory.

Okay, so I asked the “what do we do about this?” rhetorical question, as if I had an answer. But actually, the truth is I have no idea what to do about this, and I’m not sure anyone does. So far, moral progress seems to have been mostly made though an informal, decentralized process of refining common sense. Maybe something like that will work for other philosophical questions, but I don’t want to bet the world on it.

I criticized Peter Thiel a moment ago, but I actually think his distinction between secrets and mysteries was a good one. I hope philosophy turns out to be made up of secrets, things we can figure out with great effort, but often it looks made up of mysteries. Either way, don’t forget that the point of secrets is that they’re hard to learn, so if you think you’ve discovered an easy way to discover the secrets of philosophy, you’re probably wrong.

The only other thought I have to say about this, is that I wouldn’t have taken the time to write this if I didn’t think it wasn’t occasionally worth having some people spend a little bit of time thinking about how humans can get better at philosophy, just in case they come up with any good ideas. Just in case.

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