Millennial and Conservative

From AP:

To be clear, polls show that President Barack Obama remains the favorite among 18- to 29-year-old registered voters, as he was in 2008. No one thinks the majority of young voters will support Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, in the Nov. 6 election.

But the polls also hint at a “schism” between those who weren’t old enough to vote in 2008 and their older twentysomething counterparts, says John Della Volpe, the polling director at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics.

In one poll, for instance, he found that 42 percent of 18- and 19-year-olds identified as “conservative,” compared with just over one-third who said they were “liberal.” By comparison, those proportions were nearly flipped for 22- to 24-year-olds: 39 percent said they were “liberal,” and a third called themselves “conservative.” It was much the same for older twentysomethings.

Tina Wells, head of Buzz Marketing, an agency that tracks the attitudes of young people, has noticed this shift to the right. Her own researchers have found that the youngest adults are much more likely to label themselves “conservative,” ”moderate” or “independent” than older millennials, a term for young adults who’ve entered adulthood in the new millennium.

Like a lot of youth experts, Wells thinks it has to do with one thing: the economy.

About Scot McKnight

Scot McKnight is a recognized authority on the New Testament, early Christianity, and the historical Jesus. McKnight, author of more than thirty books, is the Professor of New Testament at Northern Seminary in Lombard, IL.

  • Larry

    As with the Peggy Noonan link, I’m unclear how this is related to the Jesus Creed.

  • John

    It could be the economy, but I suspect that is only true in the fact that the current economy is keeping many of them under Mom and Dad’s roof longer. As an older Millennial myself, I would have classified myself as a conservative too at that age. These days I am hardly the card carrying conservative my parents would like me to be. A lot of changes occur in those ten years, such as higher education, moving out, getting a full time job for the first time, getting married, and having children.

    It’s a whole different ball game when you aren’t being fully supported (funded) by the wealthiest generation.

  • http://www.margaretfeinberg.com Margaret

    fascinating stats!

  • http://krusekronicle.com Michael W. Kruse

    Scot, I think the Millennials parallel the Boomer generation in this regard. By some accounts the leading edge Boomers (born 1946-1954) were more a product of the heady days of protest and anti-establishment activism in the 1960s and 1970s. The trailing edge Boomers (1955-1964), sometimes called Generation Jones, came of age in the middle economic turmoil (1973-1982), the end of the failed Vietnam War, a president resigning from office, Iran Hostage crisis, Three-Mile Island, and a host of other calamities. I was born 1959 and graduated from college 1981, in the middle of the worst post WWII recession until this recession. Studies indicate that my cohort become considerably more pragmatic and less idealistic than older boomers, though still sharing some framing of issues in common with them. I’m the youngest of four and I see anecdotal evidence as I look at my older siblings and myself.

    The youngest Millennials have now been enduring four years of the worst economy in a couple of generations, and are just now trying move out on their own. I suspect they are having formative experiences similar to Generation Jones.

  • http://krusekronicle.com Michael W. Kruse

    #1 Larry,

    I just did a quick survey of posts Scot has published in the past week. Here are some of them:

    Photo Seeking Caption
    What is Espresso?
    Four Relationship Defeaters
    8 Glasses of Water per Day: Says Who?
    Cook Your Own Meals
    Human-Caused Earthquake?
    Lance Armstrong and Evidence
    Law Professors and Politics
    What’s Your Favorite Pizza?

    I’ve been reading JC since it began seven years ago. Scot, has ALWAYS published a broad range topics that he thought readers might want to discuss. Scot, has ALWAYS published posts with excerpts from both left and right as conversation starters. Jesus Creed is an on-going conversation about culture and life by people trying to live the Jesus Creed.

    I didn’t see you protest any of the above posts as having nothing to do with Jesus Creed. So what is it about these two posts today that is objectionable?

  • Tom F.

    Another possibility: who was president during the formative years of most older millenials: pretty much Bush, with vague memories of Clinton. Very young millenials (18-19), have not had a negative experience with a conservative during years when they would have been particularly politically informed.

    In fact, I believe these particular youth numbers for 18-19 year olds mirror the numbers of Americans in general, which may mean that in the absence of a universally-acknowledged bad president (Bush), and in an atmosphere where one’s political persuasion seems to absolutely determine one’s evaluation of Obama’s performance, 18-19 year old emerging adults are still reporting political preferences that basically were passed down from their parents.

    In short, older millenials broke with their conservative parents a few years back because of a particularly bad conservative president, and younger millenials are staying with their parents because Obama is just competent enough to prevent liberal kids from breaking with their parents, and yet not viewed positively enough to pull any conservative kids away like he did back in 2008.

    My experiences with young adults this age indicates that they are about as fiscally and politically conservative (or liberal) as their parents for the most part, though exceptions do happen. They are unquestioningly more socially liberal (perhaps with the exception of abortion; I think some studies have shown them to be slightly more conservative in this regard).

    Most people I know move around politically in their early-mid 20′s; this would fit in with much of the emerging adult developmental stuff that is going around.

  • scotmcknight

    Larry, sorry but what your comment reveals is that you have not been reading this blog long enough to know what we post about … I’ve been doing this for 7+ years and have a pretty good feel for what to post and what not to post. (Noonan will be back; I need to be here to monitor and to delete comments deemed inappropriate.)

  • http://www.allanbevere.com Allan R. Bevere

    I echo Michael Kruse in #5. I seldom comment here, but I check Jesus Creed almost daily. For what it may or may not be worth, I think Scot does a fine job of posting things from both liberal and conservative political pundits. It’s one of the places in the blogosphere where a good and substantive and civil discussion is possible.

  • SteveSherwood

    I don’t mind a conservatively tilted political post, I just find the theological ones more interesting. They are what I come here for. The others are fine, sports/pizza/politics, I just don’t read most of those.