Terrorism Can Affect an Election

Terrorism Can Affect an Election April 24, 2017

Yesterday, the New York Times published an article entitled “The Terrorism Effect: How an Attack Can Alter an Election.” It confirms a post I made some time ago in which I showed that militant Palestinians who carry out terrorist attacks on Israel or its Jewish citizens often do it to their own peril by causing Israeli voters to elect right-wing Likud party members who are tougher on terrorism and Palestinians, such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, rather than other politicians who are more diplomatic and/or conciliatory. It’s the same in other parts of the world, such as in France’s first of a two-stage election yesterday. Ultra-nationalism has emerged in Europe and the U.S. due partly to Islamic terrorism and illegal immigration.

The Times article said, “Terrorist attacks can shift support to the right-wing parties by one or two percentage points, studies have found…. Researchers who seek to understand this effect have long looked to Israel. With its history of terrorism and its complex multi-party system, the country is something of a laboratory for understanding the interplay of attacks and elections.”

Two researchers–Claude Bersebi of the RAND Corporation and Esteban F. Klor of Hebrew University–did a study in 2008 on the effect the terrorism in Israel had on its political elections. The Times reports concerning this study, “In Israel, the study estimated, terrorist attacks swung the 1988 and 1996 elections to the right-wing Likud Party, which won by small margins.”


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