During the last election cycle I told anyone who would listen Trump was going to win the White House. Co-host of the Naked Diner podcast Jack Matirko probably got sick and tired of hearing me say it.
Before we get into why President Trump is going to win a second term, let’s talk about why he won. I’m going to use a short bit from my post Why I Was Right About The Presidential Election:
Democratic Presidents have only been elected under very special circumstances in my lifetime.
I want to be blunt about this.
- Jimmy Carter was victorious over Gerald Ford partly because Ford pardoned Richard Nixon.
- Bill Clinton was originally elected President because a third party candidate (Ross Perot) siphoned off votes from Bush the Elder.
- Barrack Obama won against John McCain because the financial world was going to hell. America was desperate and voted for someone with a fresh face.
Once Bill Clinton and Obama won their first term, it was far more likely for them to win a second term. Sitting Presidents are statistically more likely to win a second term.
I think it’s important to note that last part Sitting Presidents are statistically more likely to win a second term.
You can read the rest of that post here.
The reason why I’m bringing up the high probability of Trump winning a second term is the Politico article Trump Is Winning. The author reflects a lot of my thinking on the likelihood of a second Trump term.
Let’s take a gander.
First, consider the fact that Trump is simply lucky. Maybe one of the luckiest men to ever run for president. He’s somehow managed to turn his reputation for audacity and shamelessness into a shield. How many controversies and scandals has he survived that would have destroyed any of his predecessors long ago or sent them hiding in their homes in shame?
If you’re a certain age, then you remember Ronald Reagan, One of his nicknames was the Teflon President. Nothing stuck to that guy, Even today we live in the shadow of Reaganomics. Trump has that same teflon ability. Now you can say, Andy, there’s a lot of us who know Trump is dirty treasonous scoundrel! To which I would say But is there enough of us in certain states to make the electoral college swing our way?
Second, consider Trump’s record as president. He actually has something to run on. He’s cut taxes. He’s rolled back regulations. He’s put ISIS on its heels. The economy and the stock market are humming along again, despite recent turmoil. Any other Republican incumbent running on that record of relative peace and prosperity—just as Eisenhower and Reagan did—would be in pretty good shape for re-election.
If you’re in the liberal bubble you’re inundated with how Trump is messing up and going back on his campaign promises. However, his base either doesn’t care or is flooded with messaging on what a great job the guy is doing.
And the economy is still doing well. There are potential issues on the horizon regarding the stock market (the end of free money is nigh, and rising interest rates are a thing). Will this throw off Trump’s reelection chances? Maybe. But I’m betting it won’t. It’ll take longer for the Republicans to mismanage the economy so much that people will elect a Democrat president.With all that said, this is the real reason why Democrats will lose in 2020.
Third, his opposition can’t get their act together. Who speaks for the Democratic Party? Depends on what time it is. What does the Democratic Party stand for? Well, they hate Trump and Russia. Oh, and they oppose tax cuts, always a popular proposition, especially at a time when Trump’s supposedly satanic tax bill has now found favor with a majority of the nation.
Co-host Jack Matirko and I have had a lot of politically aware comedians as guests on the Naked Diner. Each and every one of them agreed Donald Trump is using the tricks stand-ups use to demolish his opponents. And that’s what Trump does. He rolls over them. Like it or not, Democrats need a candidate who matches Trump at roast battling. Taking the high road didn’t do too well the last time.
Maybe Democrats should be focused on winning. High road be damned.
Andrew Hall is the author of Laughing in Disbelief. Besides writing a blog, co-hosting the Naked Diner, he wrote two books, Vampires, Lovers, and Other Strangers and God’s Diary: January 2017 . Andrew is reading through the Bible and making videos about his journey on YouTube. He is a talented stand-up comedian. You can find him on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook.
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