My question about the religious orders that are not automatically expelling members with abuse in their past

Do we know the comparative rates of recidivism among those who remain in religious life vs. those who are kicked out? It seems to me it’s awfully hard to have a conversation about whether this is a good idea or not without that information and I haven’t seen anybody talk about it. Recognizing the validity of Rod’s point over in the Corner that sticking abusers in some theoretically “safe” place is not a sure fire method to stop abuse, my question is, how much of a danger do such men pose if they are kicked out of community with nobody to keep an eye on them (this assumes they are not in jail due to some sort of legal issue)? Does the statistical danger increase or decrease compared to keeping them in the religious community? Has anyone even run the numbers to know? Any info would be appreciated.