How Hugh Ross Calculates the Improbability of Life on Earth due to Chance Alone

As someone who knows a thing or two about probability, I've always wanted to dive into the technical details for how proponents of cosmic fine-tuning arguments justify the probability estimates associated with such arguments. Along those lines, I just found this page on Hugh Ross's Reasons to Believe website:Probability for Life on Earth (APR 2004)Ross arrives at the conclusion that the probability of life on earth, conditional upon the hypothesis that it arose by chance alone, is 1 in 1 … [Read more...]

Index: Larry Arnhart on the Case For (and Against) Life After Death

Part 1: IntroductionPart 2: Near Death ExperiencesPart 3: Kantian DualismPart 4: Neuroscience, Consciousness, and Free WillPart 5: Does Morality Require the Cosmic Justice of Heaven and Hell? … [Read more...]

Perceptronium and Consciousness as a State of Matter

LINK … [Read more...]

WLC’s Debate Quotation of Anthony Kenny

Here is WLC's quotation of Kenny: A proponent of the Big Bang Theory, at least if he is an atheist, must believe that the universe came from nothing and by nothing. And here is a critique:LINK … [Read more...]

Evidential Asymmetry, Scientific Confirmation of Prayer, and Horrific Evils

1. The General CaseOne of the most important (and equally most often forgotten) lessons that Bayes's Theorem can teach us about evidence is that the strength of evidence is a ratio. To be precise, let H1 and H2 be rival explanatory hypotheses, B be the relevant background information, and E be the evidence to be explained. Now consider the following ratio: Pr(E | B & H1) ----------------- Pr(E | B & H2) If Pr(E | B & H1) > Pr(E | B & H2), then this ratio is greater … [Read more...]

Just In Time for Easter: Notable Secular Outpost Content on the Resurrection

Cavin and Colombetti on the Resurrection1. MUST READ: Greg Cavin’s Case Against the Resurrection of Jesus2. Video of Licona-Cavin Debate on the Resurrection of Jesus3. Cavin and Colombetti on the Resurrection of Jesus Part 1: The Anti-Resurrection Prior Probability Argument4. Cavin and Colombetti on the Resurrection of Jesus Part 2: The Failure of the Resurrection ‘Explanation’5. Cavin and Colombetti on the Resurrection of Jesus Part 3: The Projection and Unknown Removal Theor … [Read more...]

Arguments from Reason

I've finally gotten around to starting Victor Reppert's book, C.S. Lewis's Dangerous Idea: In Defense of the Argument from Reason. As Reppert points out in one of his chapters, we can really think of the "argument from reason" as the name for an entire family of theistic arguments. Indeed, Reppert formulates six different versions of the argument from reason which, he says, can be combined to form a cumulative case.Here are his six arguments.Argument from Intentionality Argument from … [Read more...]

An F-Inductive Moral Argument for Theism

Here is an F-inductive argument for theism based on ontologically objective moral values. Note that this argument assumes that such things exist. If you don't think they exist, then you may want to skip reading this post.As usual, let B be our background information; E be the evidence to be explained (in this case, the existence of ontologically objective moral values); T be theism; and N be naturalism. Here is the explanatory argument.1. E is known to be true, i.e., Pr(E) is close to 1. … [Read more...]


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