I ain’t sly enough to actually make a prediction on the scale of Ed Morrissey’s; he calls for a close race with McCain/Palin squeaking out a win.
And – while I agree with her prediction – I won’t take Kate’s rather easy road on this one; of course she is correct.
Okay, here’s one prediction I’ll make: If McCain/Palin wins, the press and the Dems will stroke out and Obama will play The Ultimate Chutzpah Card and say that at least 14 states (the big ACORN states) must be challenged because “the rolls were suspect and the integrity of the election was compromised” – by his very own supporters. Then he’ll proceed to tear the nation apart, in an effort to wrest the White House from the GOP. If Obama wins, the Dems and the press will declare that this was the “cleanest” and most “widely observed” election in our nation’s history; they will declare the people have spoken, call it a mandate and tell John McCain that if he dares to challenge things, he’ll be a most dishonorable man willing to tear his nation apart to serve his own ambition. John McCain will ultimately not challenge such a loss, because – like Nixon in 1960 – he’ll put his country first, and decide America may not survive such a fight.
Bill Kristol knows what a McCain win will mean to the left.
Roger Kimball declares himself and says he thinks American’s instinct for self-preservation will move them to pull the levers for McCain.
Baseball Crank has a most interesting prediction about Obama, personally.
Here’s what I expect to happen over the next 24 hours:
1)The press and the Obama trolls will use psy-ops to try to discourage your vote. That’s another no-brainer, but remember it. Remember it and VOTE. Vote if it’s raining, vote if it’s snowing. Vote if you feel crappy. Vote if you’re hearing talking heads proclaim “the most historic landslide in all of human history.” Tonight you’re going to hear – if you bother to tune in, and I wouldn’t – the gasbags on the boob tube announcing, “this election is over…” After all this time, you should know hype when you hear it, you should know, by now, that the press lies. Ignore all of that and GO VOTE. Even if eleventy billion vote the other way, get your own voice heard and on the record. Take someone else with you when you vote; encourage everyone you know to vote. Vote, vote, vote.
2) Reports of voter fraud will be downplayed. But you know better. Many of us said after 2000 that safeguards against voter fraud needed to be put in place, and they were not. Not after 2002, 2004, 2006 – now we’re looking at an entire state (Ohio) that is apparently in the grips of state-sponsored election fraud, and we’re hearing retired State Supreme Court Justices in another state (Pennsylvania) say the rolls are so befuddled with fraud they don’t know if they can certify a clean election. Obama workers in New Mexico and elsewhere don’t mind cheating for their guy. Don’t cheat, but don’t sit back and let them get away with it. Go Vote.
You take a simple random sample of 1000 balls from an urn containing 120,000,000 red and blue balls, and your sample shows 450 red balls and 550 blue balls. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of blue balls in the urn.
…Works pretty well if you’re interested in hypothetical colored balls in hypothetical giant urns, or survival rates of plants in a controlled experiment, or defects in a batch of factory products. It may even work well if you’re interested in blind cola taste tests. But what if the thing you are studying doesn’t quite fit the balls & urns template?
* What if 40% of the balls have personally chosen to live in an urn that you legally can’t stick your hand into?
* What if 50% of the balls who live in the legal urn explicitly refuse to let you select them?
* What if the balls inside the urn are constantly interacting and talking and arguing with each other, and can decide to change their color on a whim?
* What if you have to rely on the balls to report their own color, and some unknown number are probably lying to you?
* What if you’ve been hired to count balls by a company who has endorsed blue as their favorite color?
* What if you have outsourced the urn-ball counting to part-time temp balls, most of whom happen to be blue?
* What if the balls inside the urn are listening to you counting out there, and it affects whether they want to be counted, and/or which color they want to be?
(And what, I wonder, if all around you, every day, you are told by all of the coolest, hippest, prettiest balls that your color is mean, irrelevant, unpopular, un-cool, evil, old, incompetent, and probably racist? Would you stick to your guns in the face of that, or keep your mouth shut and show ‘em when the curtain closes?)
4) Our national media – completely unaware that whether their Lord wins or loses, their credibility is gone, baby, gone, will keep mouthing off as though it’s not
5) My fast, which was discontinued last week due to illness, will get back on track today, and here’s a good post on asking for the prayers of a political/religious martyr
And remember: Exit polls CANNOT be trusted
A commenter here has a nice summary of what we may face unless you get out there and vote.