If I found a black box with a number keypad and a printer tape, I could make tables of all the inputs I tested and the outputs. I put in a 1 and get a 3. A 7 gets me 127. Non-integers return 'ERROR.' Depending on what ends up in my table, I might be able to make some reasonably confident guesses about what was going on inside the box. Provided I had been careful to watch out for positive bias. (Go ahead, read the linked article, it's really good and I'll be here when you get … [Read more...]
Upon this ROC I will build…
April 1, 2012 By 44 Comments
I was considering writing an April Fools day post, but life's too short to not blog about epidemiology and epistemology. As is often the case when I go back to Yale for alumni debates, I ended up in some extended theological debates. In a conversation with one friend, we ended up on thse topic that used to form the core of my about section: what evidence would persuade me that Christianity (or another religion) is true? I think it's possible that I've set the bar for proof so high … [Read more...]
Making Book on God
March 29, 2012 By 13 Comments
A reader of Marginal Revolution posed a theological thought experiment this week, and a friend challenged me to answer. Here's the pitch: In this thought experiment you are a contestant on a gameshow. The host of the gameshow (let’s call him Alex) has a notecard that says whether or not god exists and to what extent he is involved in the affairs of mankind. You start with $1,000,000 that you must allocate across five possible categories: Scriptural literalism. Bet into this category if … [Read more...]
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