Play Along with Rationality Camp at Home!

While you're all missing me, there are three games you might want to try that I've been playing at rationality camp. The first two games are related.  The first one is called the Calibration Game and the second is called the Updating Game.  (Note: both those links start downloads of zip files).  Both are trivia games, but, although you're trying to get questions right, the focus is less on how knowledgeable you are and more on how good you are at gauging your own uncertainty. The Calibration Ga … [Read more...]

Conceding a Point is Not a Slippery Slope

I'm having a delightful time at Rationality Camp, and I have two LessWrong posts to recommend today: "Absence of Evidence is Evidence of Absence" and "Conservation of Expected Evidence."  (Read these first, I'm gesturing at them, but not summarizing below).  They start with this quote from Robyn Dawes's Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: Post-hoc fitting of evidence to hypothesis was involved in a most grievous chapter in United States history: the internment of Japanese-Americans at the b … [Read more...]