At Bayes Camp, we aren't just doing estimating exercises in class. At the beginning of camp, the organizers told us that we could start prediction markets in anything we liked. A staff member would estimate initial odds that a proposition was true or false, and we could add subsequent predictions. You gained or lost points proportional to how much your prediction was more accurate than the one right before yours (full explanation at the bottom of the post). The markets started pretty … [Read more...]
Play Along with Rationality Camp at Home!
July 24, 2012 By 17 Comments
While you're all missing me, there are three games you might want to try that I've been playing at rationality camp. The first two games are related. The first one is called the Calibration Game and the second is called the Updating Game. (Note: both those links start downloads of zip files). Both are trivia games, but, although you're trying to get questions right, the focus is less on how knowledgeable you are and more on how good you are at gauging your own uncertainty. The … [Read more...]
Conceding a Point is Not a Slippery Slope
July 22, 2012 By 31 Comments
I'm having a delightful time at Rationality Camp, and I have two LessWrong posts to recommend today: "Absence of Evidence is Evidence of Absence" and "Conservation of Expected Evidence." (Read these first, I'm gesturing at them, but not summarizing below). They start with this quote from Robyn Dawes's Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: Post-hoc fitting of evidence to hypothesis was involved in a most grievous chapter in United States history: the internment of Japanese-Americans at the … [Read more...]
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