Quick Note: There Are How Many Pagans?
There are two types of people who tend to over-estimate the size of the modern Pagan movement. Those who are advocates of Pagan religions and want to emphasize our vitality and popularity; and those who are hostile to Pagan religions and want to frighten (or at least dismay) their audience with the specter of Pagan dominance. Of these two, polemicist Melanie Phillips falls into the latter camp.
“Some of Ms. Phillips’ data may startle those of us who think of ourselves as reasonably normal people. “What previously belonged to the province of the quack and the charlatan have become mainstream,” and “‘Wicca’ – or witchcraft – and paganism constitute the fastest growing religious category in America, with between 500,000 and 5 million adherents.” Throw in New Age spirituality, and the number reaches 20 million.”
First off, we have the “fastest growing religion” meme, which isn’t true, though often parroted. While modern Pagan religions are growing, in North America the fastest-growing religious category is “none”/”unaffiliated”. Now between 15-16% of the population in America. I can’t imagine how Ms. Phillips missed this, as it was a big religion story covered in several major newspapers.
“The only group that grew in every U.S. state since the 2001 survey was people saying they had “no” religion; the survey says this group is now 15 percent of the population. Silk said this group is likely responsible for the shrinking percentage of Christians in the United States.”
Now maybe some of those unaffiliated folks are Pagan-friendly, but I wouldn’t bet on a significant percentage leaning in that particular direction. Next is the “between 500,000 and 5 million adherents” line. Recent Pew Forum and ARIS data has modern Paganism hovering somewhere around a million adherents (give or take a hundred thousand or two) in the US. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but it isn’t Pagans taking over numbers either. If she had wanted to low-ball the estimate she could have gone with the ARIS data estimates which says Wiccans and Pagans combined are just under 700,000, but where did she get 5 million?
Now a lot of folks have estimated that there are several million Pagans, but few of them have any hard data to back it up. They are mostly guesses made from incomplete data or their hopes/fears. My guess at the source is the famously anonymous Barnes & Noble marketing executive who opined that the Pagan book-buying market was an astounding 10 million. Half it to seem more reasonable, and presto! Of course, who buys a book and who identifies as Pagan are two very different things. I’m currently staying at my mother-in-law’s house, and while she is no Pagan (at least not in the religious sense), she also owns “Cunningham’s Encyclopedia of Magical Herbs”, “The Politics of Women’s Spirituality”, and Jean Bolen’s “Crossing To Avalon”.
So what does it matter that Melanie Phillips is trying to sell copies of “The World Turned Upside Down: The Global Battle over God, Truth, and Power” by overestimating the influence and growth of modern Paganism? Well, aside from the fact that she thinks modern Pagan religions are somehow a symptom of growing irrationality while civilizations “built on the values given to us by Christianity and the Hebrew Bible” are somehow a religious bulwark against irrationality (an interesting assertion to say the least), there’s the fact that she is littering the chattering classes with more bad data. If you want to argue that the world is going to hell, and Wiccans chanting is a symptom of it, be my guest. But lazy research not only distorts factual information about Paganism, it also undermines the larger points works like these try to make. It calls into question all the other assertions and “facts” used to make a case for a growingly irrational world.
So if you want to use Pagans to build your “irrational world” straw-man, at least look up the Pew and ARIS data when citing numbers, and hey, maybe actually reading a book or two on Pagan theology and belief might not hurt either.