{"id":46193,"date":"2020-04-07T16:28:07","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T20:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/?p=46193"},"modified":"2020-04-07T23:49:02","modified_gmt":"2020-04-08T03:49:02","slug":"will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html","title":{"rendered":"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dr. Anthony Fauci<\/a> has been saying all along that models regarding coronavirus and epidemics in general are only as good as the starting assumptions<\/em> they begin with. Nevertheless, he has been following the prominent ones (especially the Imperial College<\/a> \/ Neil Ferguson<\/a> model) and they formed the basis for his statements of estimated total casualties.\u00a0 The Imperial College model predicted (on whatever basis it established) 2.2 million deaths in the US, and 500,000 in the UK.<\/p>\n

Ferguson later downgraded the UK figure to 20,000 or lower, if proper social distancing continues, which means that the original prediction was off by a factor of 25 times too high<\/em>. The current death toll in the UK is 6,171 and the peak is likely to occur soon, as in the US. I haven\u2019t heard what Ferguson thinks the final toll in the US might be.<\/p>\n

Now, granted, the predictions in the model are self-consciously dependent<\/em> or contingent<\/em> upon the actual behavior of a population, and it turns out that people (in the US, certainly) have been remarkably observant of the social distancing and quarantine guidelines. I understand that, and have explained it to critics who don\u2019t get that.<\/p>\n

But<\/em> I still maintain that the original figures thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and irresponsible and had the effect of creating mass hysteria (often on the left of the political spectrum) and also conspiratorialism (which is usually on the far right). Anyone readily surveying their Facebook feeds will readily see much of both extremes.<\/p>\n

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx<\/a> keep downgrading their predictions. They have<\/em> to, because the data increasingly do not support the original fantastically inflated models. At what point, however, does this continual revising deserve any legitimate [scientific \/ logical, not<\/em> <\/strong>personal]\u00a0 criticism<\/em>? Last week Dr. Fauci was talking about 100,000-200,000 in the US alone (right now we stand at 12,021 deaths, with the peak before the descent on the famous graph curve thought to be within a week).<\/p>\n

Now (latest update) they say it may be as low as 40,000, according to the models being analyzed by Dr. Birx<\/a> (with the average of all of them being 93,000). I think that\u2019s much more like it, but that even the lowest figure will more likely than not be too high for the US.<\/p>\n

Director of the Centers for Disease Control<\/a>, Robert Redfield<\/a>, thinks a lot more like how I have been thinking about this whole thing (as of an article yesterday at ABC News<\/a>):<\/p>\n

One of the nation\u2019s top public\u00a0health<\/a>\u00a0officials suggested Monday that because Americans are taking social distancing recommendations \u201cto heart,\u201d the death toll from the novel coronavirus will be \u201cmuch, much, much lower\u201d than models have projected.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that\u2019s what you\u2019re seeing,\u201d . . .<\/p>\n

\u201cI think you\u2019re going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models,\u201d he said. . . .<\/p>\n

\u201cModels are only as good as their assumptions, obviously there are a lot of unknowns about the virus\u201d he said. \u201cA model should never be used to assume that we have a number.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I basically called it eleven days ago in an article of mine, dated 3-27-20<\/a>:<\/p>\n

This is precisely the problem in many of the \u201capocalyptic\u201d models and predictions: they assume we will sit on our butts and do nothing whatever, which is utterly naive and unrealistic. Of course, we will do\u00a0all kinds of things<\/em>\u00a0to oppose the spread of a deadly virus: as we observe all over the place.<\/p>\n

Lots of folks are working on vaccines and treatments and masks and ventilators and ways to get by in quarantine; four hospitals are being built in New York City; Congress passed a $2 trillion bill to help folks survive during this emergency period [see\u00a0an article<\/a>\u00a0and a\u00a0follow-up<\/a>\u00a0on the many positive things that are happening in response to the virus]. But predictive \u201cwarning\u201d models seem to so often assume a \u201cstatic\u201d non-response: as if\u00a0human action and intervention<\/em>\u00a0are not even\u00a0factors<\/em>\u00a0in outcomes and reasonable predictions.<\/p>\n

I recognize the importance of worst-case scenarios. They have their place to make people realize real possibilities of what\u00a0could actually happen<\/i>. But then the media and the leftish doom-and-gloom outlook take that and present it as if no one could possibly\u00a0disagree<\/em>\u00a0with it (i.e., have any alternate predictive model), in turn creating public hysteria and a fertile breeding-ground for all kinds of conspiracy theories right and left. . . .<\/p>\n

I appear to have much more faith in human ingenuity and resolve and the power of science and reason to proactively fight against coronavirus and conquer it: including a big dose of good old \u201ccan do\u201d American pragmatism.<\/p>\n

There will still be great tragedy and human cost, but (I submit) far\u00a0less<\/em>\u00a0than the left has imagined and set forth, in its pessimistic apocalypticism.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Robert Redfield essentially stated the same notion on 6 April 2020, as reported in his Wikipedia entry<\/a>:<\/p>\n

[T]hose models that were done, they assume only about 50 percent of the American public would pay attention to the recommendations. In fact, what we\u2019re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart. And I think that\u2019s the direct consequence of why you\u2019re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The day before<\/a> I had written about the hysteria among several leftish Patheos Catholic<\/em> writers (the same place which hosts my blog):<\/p>\n

Mary P.\u00a0<\/strong>wrote on 3-23-20<\/a>:, about New York state\u00a0alone<\/em>:<\/p>\n

[T]hree hundred ninety-two thousand are predicted to die. 342,000 of those people marked for death might be saved if the whole state remains sheltering in place and if we\u2019re very fortunate.<\/p>\n

Really<\/em>? The current death toll in New York (unarguably the worst place in the country right now, for infection) is 366. But Mary thinks up to 392,000 may die there\u00a0alone<\/em>? That\u2019s 17.67 times the number for the entire world right now. She lives in an alternate universe.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I think we can say (now, 15 days later) with an extremely high level of certainty that there will not<\/em> be 392,000 deaths in New York state alone, when the toll for the whole country now stands at\u00a012,021, and with the peak of the graph likely coming very soon. But this is the sort of hysteria that was rampant on March 23rd. I exposed it for what it was, and I think I have identified why<\/em> the scientific models (that, sadly, promoted reactions like this) were so wildly wrong; again, as I wrote on 3-27-20:\u00a0 \u201c[T]hey assume we will sit on our butts and do nothing whatever.\u201d<\/p>\n

That assumption is doubly naive, I would contend, in light of the historical fact, that Americans have<\/em> been quite willing to do social distancing in order to combat a virus, as was shown during the terrible flu pandemic of 1918 (as I documented in my other article today<\/a>). If the scientists (and historians of such things) have come to realize that<\/em>, then it seems to me that they should have been more realistic in their models, about how human reaction and compliance would be a huge factor in how deadly this virus would eventually be.<\/p>\n

I have been an \u201cequal opportunity\u201d critic in my articles about coronavirus, having written three concerning the errors of the far theological \/ political right (#1, 2, and 8 below), and five (including this one), about errors generally on the theological \/ political left (#3-5, 7 below), along with a sociological \/ historical survey of the situation in Italy (#6), that didn\u2019t get into these left \/right discussions, and also condemned anti-Chinese prejudice, which the left usually emphasizes relatively more than the right.<\/p>\n

Related Reading<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Taylor Marshall: Pachamama \u201cIdolatry\u201d Judged by Coronavirus (Yet \u201cAntichrist\u201d Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .)<\/a>\u00a0[3-17-20]<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    2. Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God\u2019s Wrath<\/a>\u00a0[3-19-20]<\/p>\n

    3. \u201cBlack Death\u201d Mentality On Display at\u00a0Patheos Catholic<\/em>\u00a0<\/a>[3-26-20]<\/p>\n

    4. Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus<\/a>\u00a0[3-27-20]<\/p>\n

    5. Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II<\/a>\u00a0[3-27-20]<\/p>\n

    6. Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, \u201cChinese Flu\u201d \/ Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice)<\/a>\u00a0[3-28-20]<\/p>\n

    7. Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus<\/a>\u00a0[4-4-20]<\/p>\n

    8. Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective)<\/a>\u00a0[4-7-20]<\/p>\n

    ***<\/p>\n

    Photo credit:<\/strong> [public domain \/ Wallpaper Flare<\/em><\/a>)<\/p>\n

    ***<\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Dr. Anthony Fauci has been saying all along that models regarding coronavirus and epidemics in general are only as good as the starting assumptions they begin with. Nevertheless, he has been following the prominent ones (especially the Imperial College \/ Neil Ferguson model) and they formed the basis for his statements of estimated total casualties.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2331,"featured_media":46195,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[289],"tags":[10581,10572,10479,10452,10569,10488,10470,2560,10455,10563,10476,10578,10461,10464,10458,10547,10467,10575,10473,10566],"class_list":["post-46193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-ethical-moral-issues","tag-apocalypticism","tag-black-death","tag-contagious-disease","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-disease","tag-disease-control","tag-doom-and-gloom","tag-epidemic","tag-flattening-curve","tag-flu","tag-leftism-coronavirus","tag-mass-hysteria","tag-mass-panic","tag-pandemic","tag-patheos-catholic","tag-quarantine","tag-rebecca-hamilton","tag-virus","tag-virus-trends"],"yoast_head":"\nWill US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I maintain that the original US death figures re coronavirus thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and created (leftish) mass hysteria and (far-right) conspiratorialism.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I maintain that the original US death figures re coronavirus thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and created (leftish) mass hysteria and (far-right) conspiratorialism.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Biblical Evidence for Catholicism\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dave.armstrong.798\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-04-07T20:28:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-04-08T03:49:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/572\/2020\/04\/GraphUpward.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"520\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dave Armstrong\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dave Armstrong\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html\",\"name\":\"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-04-07T20:28:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-04-08T03:49:02+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#\/schema\/person\/471eaa20e441eca4bb1ea50393cf632e\"},\"description\":\"I maintain that the original US death figures re coronavirus thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and created (leftish) mass hysteria and (far-right) conspiratorialism.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/\",\"name\":\"Biblical Evidence for Catholicism\",\"description\":\"Catholic biblical apologetics\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#\/schema\/person\/471eaa20e441eca4bb1ea50393cf632e\",\"name\":\"Dave Armstrong\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/820e6db89734ae7a9e5dac8d498f5ac7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/820e6db89734ae7a9e5dac8d498f5ac7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Dave Armstrong\"},\"description\":\"Dave Armstrong is a Catholic author and apologist, who has been actively proclaiming and defending Christianity since 1981, and Catholicism in particular since 1991 (full-time since December 2001). Formerly a campus missionary, as a Protestant, Dave was received into the Catholic Church in February 1991, by the late, well-known catechist and theologian, Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J. Dave\u2019s articles have appeared in many influential Catholic periodicals, including \\\"This Rock\\\" (now called \\\"Catholic Answers Magazine\\\"), \\\"Envoy Magazine\\\" (Patrick Madrid), \\\"The Catholic Answer,\\\" \\\"The Coming Home Journal,\\\" \\\"Gilbert Magazine\\\" (American Chesterton Society), and \\\"The Latin Mass.\\\" He also writes a featured column for every issue of \\\"The Michigan Catholic\\\": published by the archdiocese of Detroit, and was editor for most of the apologetics tracts published by the St. Paul Street Evangelization apostolate. Dave\u2019s apologetics and writing apostolate was the subject of a feature article in the May 2002 issue of \\\"Envoy Magazine.\\\" He served as the staff moderator at the Internet discussion forum for The Coming Home Network, from 2007-2010. Dave has been interviewed on many nationally syndicated Catholic radio shows, including \\\"Catholic Answers Live\\\" (twice), \\\"Faith and Family Live\\\" (Steve Wood), \\\"Kresta in the Afternoon,\\\" \\\"Son Rise Morning Show,\\\" \\\"Catholic Connection\\\" (Teresa Tomeo), and \\\"The Catholics Next Door.\\\" His large and popular website, \\\"Biblical Evidence for Catholicism,\\\" was online from March 1997 to March 2007, and received the 1998 Catholic Website of the Year award from \\\"Envoy Magazine.\\\" His blog of the same name (now transferred to Patheos), begun in February 2004, contains more than 1,500 papers, at least 500 debates or dialogues, and over 50 distinct \\\"index\\\" web pages. Unsolicited correspondence has indicated many hundreds of conversions (or returns) to the Catholic faith as a result, by God's grace, of these writings. Dave's conversion story was published in the bestselling book \\\"Surprised by Truth\\\" (edited by Patrick Madrid; San Diego: Basilica Press, 1994). Sophia Institute Press has published six of his books: \\\"A Biblical Defense of Catholicism\\\" (Foreword by Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J., 1996 \/ 2003), \\\"The Catholic Verses\\\" (2004), \\\"The One-Minute Apologist\\\" (2007), \\\"Bible Proofs for Catholic Truths\\\" (2009), \\\"The Quotable Newman\\\" (editor: 2012), and \\\"Proving the Catholic Faith is Biblical\\\" (2015). He is co-author (with Dr. Paul Thigpen) of the inserts for \\\"The New Catholic Answer Bible\\\" (Our Sunday Visitor: 2005), and editor for \\\"The Wisdom of Mr. Chesterton: The Very Best Quotes, Quips, and Cracks from the Pen of G. K. Chesterton\\\" (Saint Benedict Press \/ TAN Books: 2009). \\\"100 Biblical Arguments Against Sola Scriptura\\\" was published by Catholic Answers in May 2012. His \\\"Quotable Wesley\\\" compilation was published by (Protestant \/ Wesleyan publisher) Beacon Hill Press in April 2014. Several of his 49 books are bestsellers in their field. Dave maintains a popular personal Facebook page, a Facebook author page, and has a Twitter account as well. He offers almost all of his books in e-book form on his own Biblical Catholicism site (http:\/\/biblicalcatholicism.com\/), at a permanent deep discount: only $2.99 for ePub, mobi, and AZW, and $1.99 for PDF. His writing has been enthusiastically endorsed or recommended by many leading Catholic apologists, authors, and priests, including Dr. Scott Hahn, Fr. Peter M. J. Stravinskas, Marcus Grodi, Patrick Madrid, Steve Ray, Tim Staples, Devin Rose, Mike Aquilina, Al Kresta, Karl Keating, Fr. Dwight Longenecker, Brandon Vogt, Marcellino D'Ambrosio, and Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J. Dave has been happily married to his wife Judy since October 1984. They have three sons and a daughter, and reside in southeast Michigan (metro Detroit).\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/biblicalcatholicism.com\/\",\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dave.armstrong.798\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@LuxVeritatisApologetics\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/author\/davearmstrong\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?","description":"I maintain that the original US death figures re coronavirus thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and created (leftish) mass hysteria and (far-right) conspiratorialism.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?","og_description":"I maintain that the original US death figures re coronavirus thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and created (leftish) mass hysteria and (far-right) conspiratorialism.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html","og_site_name":"Biblical Evidence for Catholicism","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dave.armstrong.798","article_published_time":"2020-04-07T20:28:07+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-04-08T03:49:02+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":520,"url":"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/572\/2020\/04\/GraphUpward.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dave Armstrong","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Dave Armstrong","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html","name":"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#website"},"datePublished":"2020-04-07T20:28:07+00:00","dateModified":"2020-04-08T03:49:02+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#\/schema\/person\/471eaa20e441eca4bb1ea50393cf632e"},"description":"I maintain that the original US death figures re coronavirus thrown out to the public were grotesquely excessive and created (leftish) mass hysteria and (far-right) conspiratorialism.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2020\/04\/will-us-coronavirus-deaths-be-far-less-than-predicted.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/","name":"Biblical Evidence for Catholicism","description":"Catholic biblical apologetics","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#\/schema\/person\/471eaa20e441eca4bb1ea50393cf632e","name":"Dave Armstrong","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/820e6db89734ae7a9e5dac8d498f5ac7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/820e6db89734ae7a9e5dac8d498f5ac7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Dave Armstrong"},"description":"Dave Armstrong is a Catholic author and apologist, who has been actively proclaiming and defending Christianity since 1981, and Catholicism in particular since 1991 (full-time since December 2001). Formerly a campus missionary, as a Protestant, Dave was received into the Catholic Church in February 1991, by the late, well-known catechist and theologian, Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J. Dave\u2019s articles have appeared in many influential Catholic periodicals, including \"This Rock\" (now called \"Catholic Answers Magazine\"), \"Envoy Magazine\" (Patrick Madrid), \"The Catholic Answer,\" \"The Coming Home Journal,\" \"Gilbert Magazine\" (American Chesterton Society), and \"The Latin Mass.\" He also writes a featured column for every issue of \"The Michigan Catholic\": published by the archdiocese of Detroit, and was editor for most of the apologetics tracts published by the St. Paul Street Evangelization apostolate. Dave\u2019s apologetics and writing apostolate was the subject of a feature article in the May 2002 issue of \"Envoy Magazine.\" He served as the staff moderator at the Internet discussion forum for The Coming Home Network, from 2007-2010. Dave has been interviewed on many nationally syndicated Catholic radio shows, including \"Catholic Answers Live\" (twice), \"Faith and Family Live\" (Steve Wood), \"Kresta in the Afternoon,\" \"Son Rise Morning Show,\" \"Catholic Connection\" (Teresa Tomeo), and \"The Catholics Next Door.\" His large and popular website, \"Biblical Evidence for Catholicism,\" was online from March 1997 to March 2007, and received the 1998 Catholic Website of the Year award from \"Envoy Magazine.\" His blog of the same name (now transferred to Patheos), begun in February 2004, contains more than 1,500 papers, at least 500 debates or dialogues, and over 50 distinct \"index\" web pages. Unsolicited correspondence has indicated many hundreds of conversions (or returns) to the Catholic faith as a result, by God's grace, of these writings. Dave's conversion story was published in the bestselling book \"Surprised by Truth\" (edited by Patrick Madrid; San Diego: Basilica Press, 1994). Sophia Institute Press has published six of his books: \"A Biblical Defense of Catholicism\" (Foreword by Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J., 1996 \/ 2003), \"The Catholic Verses\" (2004), \"The One-Minute Apologist\" (2007), \"Bible Proofs for Catholic Truths\" (2009), \"The Quotable Newman\" (editor: 2012), and \"Proving the Catholic Faith is Biblical\" (2015). He is co-author (with Dr. Paul Thigpen) of the inserts for \"The New Catholic Answer Bible\" (Our Sunday Visitor: 2005), and editor for \"The Wisdom of Mr. Chesterton: The Very Best Quotes, Quips, and Cracks from the Pen of G. K. Chesterton\" (Saint Benedict Press \/ TAN Books: 2009). \"100 Biblical Arguments Against Sola Scriptura\" was published by Catholic Answers in May 2012. His \"Quotable Wesley\" compilation was published by (Protestant \/ Wesleyan publisher) Beacon Hill Press in April 2014. Several of his 49 books are bestsellers in their field. Dave maintains a popular personal Facebook page, a Facebook author page, and has a Twitter account as well. He offers almost all of his books in e-book form on his own Biblical Catholicism site (http:\/\/biblicalcatholicism.com\/), at a permanent deep discount: only $2.99 for ePub, mobi, and AZW, and $1.99 for PDF. His writing has been enthusiastically endorsed or recommended by many leading Catholic apologists, authors, and priests, including Dr. Scott Hahn, Fr. Peter M. J. Stravinskas, Marcus Grodi, Patrick Madrid, Steve Ray, Tim Staples, Devin Rose, Mike Aquilina, Al Kresta, Karl Keating, Fr. Dwight Longenecker, Brandon Vogt, Marcellino D'Ambrosio, and Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J. Dave has been happily married to his wife Judy since October 1984. They have three sons and a daughter, and reside in southeast Michigan (metro Detroit).","sameAs":["https:\/\/biblicalcatholicism.com\/","https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dave.armstrong.798","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@LuxVeritatisApologetics"],"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/author\/davearmstrong"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2331"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46193\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}