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I thought it would be informative to see how my analysis from July 16th<\/a> is holding up, two months later. I gave 15 reasons why I thought President Trump would be re-elected. Is there continuing evidence that supports them, and is it greater or lesser corroboration than in July?<\/p>\n 1) The incumbent almost always wins<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n In the article, \u201cTrump\u2019s Strongest Asset Could Be His Incumbency, College Dean Says\u201d<\/a> (NBCBoston<\/em>, 9-7-20), Alison King writes:<\/p>\n Trump will point to a rising stock market warning that Biden will tack hard left, pressured by a socialist base \u2014 though it is unclear if that will work on a former elected official most voters have known for decades to be a centrist. Perhaps Trump\u2019s strongest asset is his incumbency.<\/p>\n [Stonehill College Dean Peter] Ubertaccio says, \u201cIt\u2019s still difficult to beat an incumbent president, it hasn\u2019t been done since 1992 and in that year there was a significant third-party candidate.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 2) President Trump created the\u00a0best economy in American history<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Why does\u00a0President Trump<\/a>\u00a0continue to get higher marks on economic issues in polls\u00a0than his predecessors<\/a>\u00a0Barack Obama, George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush enjoyed when they stood for re-election?<\/p>\n Mr. Trump\u2019s relative strength on the economy, and whether Joseph R. Biden Jr. can cut into it over the next 10 weeks, are among the crucial dynamics in battleground states in the Midwest and the Sun Belt that are expected to decide the election. . . .<\/p>\n [P]olling data and interviews with voters and political analysts suggest that a confluence of factors is raising Mr. Trump\u2019s standing on the economy issue, . . .<\/p>\n [W]hile some polls this summer showed the candidates deadlocked on the question of who would best handle the economy, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden on handling the economy in an\u00a0NBC News\/Wall Street Journal poll<\/a>\u00a0released this week. A Reuters poll\u00a0had the men tied<\/a>. (\u201cWhy Trump\u2019s Approval Ratings on the Economy Remain Durable,\u201d<\/a> Jim Tankersley, The New York Times<\/em>, 8-24-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 3)\u00a0Joe Biden\u2019s alarming cognitive breakdown and possible senility<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n The mainstream media seizes every opportunity to point out how important President Donald Trump\u2019s temperament, in their opinion, hurts our standing in world affairs. So I\u2019m curious why they haven\u2019t bothered to question former vice president Joe Biden\u2019s mental health status.<\/p>\n Two recent polls (Rasmussen and Zogby) both illustrate that a large percentage of likely voters, including 20% of Democrats, feel Mr. Biden is suffering from early stages of dementia.<\/p>\n You would think these polls would be noteworthy especially since Mr. Biden will be older, upon winning the election, than President Ronald Reagan was when he left office. Most people recognize how quickly after leaving office President Reagan slipped into dementia.<\/p>\n The former vice president is legendary for his continuous gaffs and rambling, leaving many to feel these are early signs of his slipping cognitive ability. (\u201cVoters need to ask tough questions about Joe Biden\u2019s mental health | Letter to the editor\u201d<\/a>, Mark Mullen, Bradenton Herald<\/em>, 7-20-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 4)\u00a0Rioting and Mayhem<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n CNN\u2019s Don Lemon warned Democrats of electoral consequences if they fail to address the \u201cblind spot\u201d that\u2019s prevented them from condemning the rioting that plagues the country nightly.<\/p>\n \u201cI think Democrats are ignoring this problem, are hoping that it will go away. And it\u2019s not going to go away,\u201d Lemon remarked to fellow CNN host Chris Cuomo on Tuesday night. . . .<\/p>\n Democrats were silent on the\u00a0stark rise in violent crime<\/a>\u00a0across American cities during their four-day convention last week, with Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot failing to mention the rampant looting that\u00a0happened<\/a>\u00a0in her city earlier this month.<\/p>\n A recent Pew survey on the top issues in the 2020 election\u00a0showed<\/a>\u00a0that 59 percent of voters consider dealing with violent crime \u201cvery important\u201d to their vote \u2014 only three points less important than the coronavirus pandemic.<\/p>\n Lemon also\u00a0condemned<\/a>\u00a0calls for defunding the police, saying that the \u201cfringes\u201d of the party still vocally calling for it was \u201cstarting to turn people off.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m going to say this and I know people don\u2019t like it. Most black people don\u2019t want police defunded. They don\u2019t want fewer police there,\u201d he stated. \u201cWhat they want, they want more. And most communities of color in this country need police. They may need police more than white communities, okay?\u201d . . .<\/p>\n It also marks a stark turn from Lemon\u2019s own commentary on the issue, . . .<\/p>\n And in June, after wide swaths of New York City were looted, Cuomo used his show to empathize with the rioters. (\u201c\u2018It\u2019s Showing Up in the Polling\u2019: CNN Hosts Worry Dems Will Face Electoral Consequences If They Don\u2019t Address Rioting\u201d<\/a>, Tobias Hoonhout, National Review<\/em>, 8-26-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 5)<\/strong>\u00a0The Anti-Police \/ Defund the Police Movement<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n As activists around the country enter their second month of protesting police brutality, a new survey finds that their messaging around\u00a0defunding local precincts<\/a>\u00a0has fallen flat with the vast majority of Americans.<\/p>\n Forty-two percent say that spending on their local police should stay about the same as it is now, and 31% say that spending should be increased,\u00a0according to a Pew poll out Thursday<\/a>.<\/p>\n Just a quarter of Americans say spending on policing in their area should be decreased, and only about half of those say it should be decreased a lot. The numbers come as budget battles are being fought in major cities like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles around the robust\u00a0funding of police forces<\/a>. . . .<\/p>\n In general, Americans still view police positively. Nearly 60% of Americans say police around the country do an excellent or good job of protecting people from crime, down just slightly from 62% in 2016. (\u201cThe vast majority of Americans don\u2019t want to defund the police\u201d<\/a>, Nicole Goodkind, Fortune<\/em>, 7-9-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 6)\u00a0Obamagate<\/strong>\u00a0\/ Russian Hoax, etc.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Former FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith intends to plead guilty to\u00a0falsifying a document to justify\u00a0surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser as part of the 2016 investigation into Russian interference in the presidential election,\u00a0according to<\/a>several<\/a>outlets<\/a>.<\/p>\n His plea is the first criminal case brought by\u00a0U.S. Attorney\u00a0John Durham, whom\u00a0Attorney General\u00a0William Barr<\/a><\/span>\u00a0appointed to lead the investigation into the origins of the Russia investigation.<\/p>\n Clinesmith is accused of altering an email that said Trump campaign adviser Carter Page was not a source for the CIA, even though Page had had a relationship with the agency. . . .<\/p>\n Durham\u2019s investigation follows Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz\u2019s report that found \u201csignificant inaccuracies and omissions\u201d in the FBI\u2019s application to a court to obtain permission to monitor Page. (\u201cEx-FBI lawyer Clinesmith to plead guilty in Durham probe\u201d<\/a>, J. Edward Moreno, The Hill<\/em>, 8-14-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 7)\u00a0Turnout \/ Enthusiasm<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n [W]hen it comes to how strongly voters back their chosen candidate, 66% of Trump supporters say they support him\u00a0strongly,\u00a0<\/em>while just 46% of Biden supporters say the same.<\/p>\n Nearly a quarter of voters who back Trump say they support him moderately (23%). . . .<\/p>\n Support for Biden is more tepid; 43% of registered voters who say they would vote for Biden if the presidential election were held today say they\u00a0moderately<\/em>\u00a0support him. (Pew Research Center, election poll<\/a>, 8-13-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 8)\u00a0Iconoclasm \/ Statue-Toppling;<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n A new poll shows that most people in the United States oppose removing statues of Confederate generals,\u00a0siding with President Trump<\/a>\u00a0on an issue over which he has been repeatedly slapped down.<\/p>\n In a survey of 1,006 adults by the\u00a0Washington Post<\/i><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0ABC News<\/i><\/a>, conducted July 12-15, 52% of respondents said statues that honor Confederate generals should not be removed from public spaces. More than two-thirds, 68%, said the same of statues of slave-owning U.S. presidents. (\u201cPublic sides with Trump on removing Confederate statues: Poll\u201d,<\/a> Katherine Doyle, Washington Examiner<\/em>, 7-21-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 9)\u00a0Anti-Americanism \/ Disrespecting the Flag<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n This appears \u2014 according to polling<\/a> \u2014 to now favor the [broadly] Democrat position of kneeling during the National Anthem at sports events, etc. However (and a huge \u201chowever), it strongly turns off a significant portion of the American public, and if enough<\/em> of those blame the democrats for these trends, it could adversely affect Biden\u2019s chances. Elections are always about the 20% of the voters who are \u201cmushy middle\u201d or independents or swing voters or undecided, etc.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 10)<\/strong>\u00a0Extreme Pro-Abortion Policies<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 58% of U.S. adults say late-term abortion after five months of pregnancy should not be legal. [Source: Reuters \/ Ipsos, May 2019<\/a>]<\/p>\n Only 8% of Americans said abortions should be permitted up until the third trimester, and only 6% said abortion should be allowed up until birth. [Source: Harvard CAPS \/ Harris, May 2019<\/a>]<\/p>\n Nearly half (49%) of millennials, 42% of women, 45% Independents, and 36% of Democrats would support a ban on abortion after five months in their state. [Source: Quinnipiac, 2017<\/a>] (\u201cWhere do Americans Stand on Abortion?\u201d<\/a>, Susan B. Anthony list, 2020)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Biden\u2019s position is support for abortion during all nine months, and even in favor of killing a child who survives abortion. Not that these sorts of things ever seem to matter<\/em> to Democrat proclaimed \u201cpro-life\u201d voters, but on the other hand, it may cause some to vote for Trump and his vigorous pro-life platform. Many pro-lifers, long active in the movement, have called Trump the \u201cmost pro-life President\u201d<\/a> ever.<\/p>\n 11) Growing Black and Hispanic Vote for Trump<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n President Trump<\/a><\/span>\u2018s support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.<\/p>\n Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.<\/p>\n That is up 9 points from the previous\u00a0survey conducted Aug. 8-11<\/a>, where the President received 15 percent support among this group.<\/p>\n The survey found support among Hispanic voters also grew by 2 percentage points, from 30 percent in the last poll to 32 percent in this most recent survey. (\u201cPoll: Trump approval rises among black, hispanic voters amid convention\u201d<\/a>,\u00a0Gabriela Schulte, The Hill<\/em>, 8-28-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 12)\u00a0Increasing Fascism \/ \u201cWoke\u201d and \u201cCancel\u201d Culture<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Over half (56%) of Americans think that cancel culture\u00a0\u2014 defined as a form of\u00a0boycott\u00a0in which an individual (usually a celebrity) who has said something that offends some people is called out and shunned \u2014\u00a0in the United States is a very big (28%) or somewhat big (28%) problem, according to a\u00a0July 2020\u00a0survey from Yahoo News and YouGov. (\u201cWhat Americans have to say about cancel culture\u201d<\/a>, Jamie Ballard, YouGov<\/em>, 8-26-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 13)<\/strong>\u00a0Skewed and Biased Polls<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n [M]ost [Pennsylvania] voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won\u2019t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%). The belief in a secret Biden vote is somewhat more prevalent in Trump counties (32%) than Clinton counties (23%) and swing counties (23%).<\/p>\n \u201cThe media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,\u201d said [Patrick] Murray [director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute]. (\u201cPennsylvania:\u00a0Biden Leads But Many Anticipate Secret Trump Vote\u201d<\/a>, Monmouth University, 7-15-20)<\/p>\n Let\u2019s look closer at the CNN poll. The poll was commissioned by CNN but was\u00a0conducted<\/a>\u00a0by SSRS, \u201can independent research company.\u201d It wasn\u2019t actually Don Lemon and Jim Acosta on the street corner asking passersby who they favored in the 2020 presidential election.<\/p>\n The poll sample is important. Oversampling Democrats will skew the results in favor of the Democrat candidate. In this poll, 34 percent identified as Democrat while only 26 percent described themselves as Republican, an eight-point difference. Imagine the results if those percentages were flipped.<\/p>\n They also surveyed registered, not likely, voters. Given that only slightly more than half of eligible voters\u00a0actually voted<\/a>\u00a0in the 2016 presidential election, this too is not a representative sample.<\/p>\n The CNN poll<\/a>, with their Democrat oversampling, showed voters nationally backing Biden over Trump by 51 to 46 percent, a five-point difference, less than the eight-point difference in party affiliation. (\u201cPolling Data the Media Doesn\u2019t Want You to See\u201d<\/a>,\u00a0Brian C. Joondeph, Rasmussen Reports<\/em>, 5-18-20)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n 14) The\u00a0illegal immigration issue<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This issue seems to be trending in favor of the Democrat position<\/a> of more \u201copenness\u201d to immigrants who originally cross the border illegally.<\/p>\n 15) Over-Strict Regulations Regarding Shutdowns and Quarantine, etc.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n This issue appears to support more so Biden\u2019s view<\/a> than Trump\u2019s as well.<\/p>\n ***<\/p>\n\n