{"id":7317,"date":"2016-05-05T15:54:15","date_gmt":"2016-05-05T19:54:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/?p=7317"},"modified":"2017-04-19T12:01:12","modified_gmt":"2017-04-19T16:01:12","slug":"15-reasons-why-trump-wins-in-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/davearmstrong\/2016\/05\/15-reasons-why-trump-wins-in-november.html","title":{"rendered":"15 Reasons Why Donald Trump Wins in November"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"Hillary\"<\/p>\n

This portrait of Hillary Clinton was adapted from a photo in the public domain from the<\/span> Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff\u2019s Flickr photostream: face<\/a>. Image by \u201cDonkeyHotey\u201d (7-19-15)<\/span> [Flickr <\/a>\/ CC BY 2.0<\/a> license]<\/span><\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

Whether one loves him, loathes him, reluctantly tolerates him, lionizes him, or thinks he is the reincarnation of Vlad the Impaler or Attila the Hun (I do none of those; I think he is a candidate who can win and will do some good, needed things, and a very flawed man with some good and useful qualities in terms of being President), Donald Trump is going to be our next President (I\u2019d bet very good money on it), and the following factors are the reason why:<\/span><\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

1) \u201cReagan Democrats\u201d<\/a> and otherwise disenchanted, suffering working class Democrats<\/a> and former Democrat Republicans <\/a>will vote for him.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2) He\u2019ll get the libertarian<\/a>, and moderate<\/a> voters by the droves. And it is the year of \u00a0the political outsider<\/a>. Trump capitalizes on that vs. almost the ultimate Insider and Establishment politician: Hillary Clinton.<\/span><\/p>\n

3) He\u2019ll get anyone who is suffering economically and figures out that incompetent, clueless Democrat \/ Obama economic policies have mostly caused<\/a> (and unnecessarily prolonged) the bad economy. Obamacare is also a disaster and a majority rejects it<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

4) Almost always after eight years of one party, it flips to the other party. Given the facts that Hillary Clinton is singularly uninspiring, boring, and unlikable<\/a>, and her massive history of corruption<\/a>, GOP chances are all the better.<\/span><\/p>\n

5) We still have to see the aftermath of what a (probably more likely than not) FBI recommendation for indictment <\/a>on several felony counts will do to Hillary and the Democrats. Even if the Democrat-controlled and biased Justice Department does not indict (which is the likelihood), the FBI recommendation for same (if it occurs) will be tremendously damaging to Hillary\u2019s credibility and trustworthiness<\/a>, and many leaks will come out that will be devastating.<\/span><\/p>\n

6) Sanders is dividing the Democrats in a major way<\/a>, whereas now the GOP (though many portions of it are smarting and disillusioned and cynical) has months to unify and pull together, with the departure of Cruz and Kasich. <\/span><\/p>\n

7) 2016 resembles 1980 in many ways. Ronald Reagan was down in the polls 15-25 points<\/a> to Jimmy Carter at this time of the year. Trump is already pulling even in some polls with Hillary and in one even beat her by two points<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

8) Trump has not yet begun to fight. And he is clearly willing to vigorously fight and oppose the usual Democrat slanderous nonsense and talking-points<\/a> during elections (all Republicans are racist, chauvinist, anti-poor, homophobes, etc.) in a way that no GOP candidate in recent memory has been willing to fight.<\/span><\/p>\n

9) New Media is hugely more influential<\/a> than it has been in past elections. This means that people\u2019s minds are not dominated by the overwhelmingly liberal secular major media. And Trump is probably the most media-savvy candidate <\/a>in either party, ever.<\/span><\/p>\n

10) Economy<\/a>, illegal immigration<\/a>, terrorism<\/a>. All three greatly favor Trump over Hillary Clinton. Another terrorist attack in the US would\u00a0add two points to Trump\u2019s winning percentage (or at worst, cause him to win rather than lose). Americans also badly want to defeat ISIS<\/a>, and they know which party and candidate is far more likely to successfully do so.<\/span><\/p>\n

11) Trump has the capacity to take \u201crust belt\u201d states<\/a> like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio, and also possibly several northeastern states<\/a> usually won by the Democrats. This will be all the more possible if he makes a good VP pick. Kasich would bring Ohio, Carson possibly Michigan, etc.<\/span><\/p>\n

12) The \u201cNever Trump\u201d and \u201cI\u2019ll sit on my hands on election day\u201d fools will be more than offset by the multiple thousands<\/em> of new voters being brought into the GOP by Trump<\/a>: some of whom haven\u2019t voted before. Disenchanted Bernie-ites could be a big factor, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

13) GOP turnout is up 60-70%<\/a>; Democrat turnout is down 20-30%. Turnout is one of the most important factors in elections. It certainly was key in 2012 for Obama.<\/span><\/p>\n

14) Slowly but surely, more and more African-Americans are figuring out that the Democrat Party shouldn\u2019t automatically get their vote, especially in light of the fact that under the first black President, their economic status has decreased in every major category<\/a> (whereas it greatly rose under Reagan<\/a>), while white Americans\u2019 status was flat, and Hispanic-Americans\u2019 incomes rose.<\/span><\/p>\n

15) Donald Trump is having problems with the female vote, but so is Hillary Clinton<\/a>. Lots of women do not like her at all. Thus, it may be a wash with the women\u2019s vote. It also cancels out whatever advantage the \u201cwoman card\u201d might have given her. In other words, her being a woman will be far less advantage to her (if at all) than Obama\u2019s being (half) black was to him.<\/span><\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

See my previous posts about the 2016 election\u00a0season:<\/span><\/p>\n

Is Trump a Conservative; Even \u201cReaganesque\u201d?<\/a> [1-6-16]<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump & Reagan: Shocking Similarities<\/a> [1-15-16]<\/span><\/p>\n

In (Partial) Defense of Donald Trump <\/a>[3-10-16]<\/span><\/p>\n

Roarin\u2019 Lyin\u2019 Ted<\/a> [5-4-16]<\/span><\/p>\n

And my report of how strikingly accurate these predictions were:<\/p>\n

My Successful May Predictions About the 2016 Election<\/a> [11-9-16]<\/p>\n

How Close I Came in My Electoral College Predictions (92 \/ 93%)<\/a> [Facebook, 11-11-16]
\n<\/p>\n

*****<\/span><\/p>\n

Meta Description:\u00a0Contrary to a widespread perception that it is Hillary Clinton\u2019s election to lose, Trump has at least 15 important advantages.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meta Keywords:\u00a02016 presidential campaign, American politics, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, American presidential election<\/span><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This portrait of Hillary Clinton was adapted from a photo in the public domain from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff\u2019s Flickr photostream: face. Image by \u201cDonkeyHotey\u201d (7-19-15) [Flickr \/ CC BY 2.0 license] ***** Whether one loves him, loathes him, reluctantly tolerates him, lionizes him, or thinks he is the reincarnation of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2331,"featured_media":7319,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[289],"tags":[2768,2769,2776,1826,2424],"class_list":["post-7317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-ethical-moral-issues","tag-2016-presidential-campaign","tag-american-politics","tag-american-presidential-election","tag-donald-trump","tag-hillary-clinton"],"yoast_head":"\n15 Reasons Why Donald Trump Wins in November<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Contrary to a widespread perception that it is Hillary Clinton's election to lose, Donald Trump has at least 15 important advantages.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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Sophia Institute Press has published six of his books: \"A Biblical Defense of Catholicism\" (Foreword by Fr. John A. Hardon, S. J., 1996 \/ 2003), \"The Catholic Verses\" (2004), \"The One-Minute Apologist\" (2007), \"Bible Proofs for Catholic Truths\" (2009), \"The Quotable Newman\" (editor: 2012), and \"Proving the Catholic Faith is Biblical\" (2015). He is co-author (with Dr. Paul Thigpen) of the inserts for \"The New Catholic Answer Bible\" (Our Sunday Visitor: 2005), and editor for \"The Wisdom of Mr. Chesterton: The Very Best Quotes, Quips, and Cracks from the Pen of G. K. Chesterton\" (Saint Benedict Press \/ TAN Books: 2009). \"100 Biblical Arguments Against Sola Scriptura\" was published by Catholic Answers in May 2012. His \"Quotable Wesley\" compilation was published by (Protestant \/ Wesleyan publisher) Beacon Hill Press in April 2014. Several of his 49 books are bestsellers in their field. 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