{"id":4573,"date":"2007-09-09T12:15:22","date_gmt":"2007-09-09T12:15:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/drishtikone\/2007\/09\/great-decline-us-dollar-horizon\/"},"modified":"2007-09-09T12:15:22","modified_gmt":"2007-09-09T12:15:22","slug":"great-decline-us-dollar-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/drishtikone\/2007\/09\/great-decline-us-dollar-horizon\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Great decline of US Dollar on the Horizon?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><head><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><\/head><body><p>Not many people realize that the economic relationship between China and US is a quid pro quo that is just meant to prop up the feeling of wealth.  Despite the fact that I am nowhere near to as economic-savvy as most of the world economic gurus, I do believe it is a case of <em>\"Who Blinks first?\"<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/photobucket.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\" decorated-link\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket\" src=\"https:\/\/i43.photobucket.com\/albums\/e375\/deshkapoor\/china.jpg\" align=\"right\"><\/a>kind of a scenario!<\/p>\n<p>The relationship though fruitful until now, is by no means sustainable on a long term basis!  Action of both, the US and China are meant to help each others economy.  What probably has not been factored is the rise or interaction of any other economic entity that might upset the cart!<\/p>\n<p>This diagram best explains what is going on: <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>US uses Dollar to buy cheap goods from China<\/li>\n<li>China sends the goods.<\/li>\n<li>Now, China has the Dollars \u2013 it invests in US Treasury \u2013 so it send the US dollars it earned from selling goods back to US<\/li>\n<li>US in turn provides IOUs that will be paid later (by the coming generations) called US Treasury!<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/photobucket.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\" decorated-link\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket\" src=\"https:\/\/i43.photobucket.com\/albums\/e375\/deshkapoor\/China2.jpg\" align=\"left\"><\/a>So, it is a simple case of the present generation of Americans financing its purchases of cheap goods by issuing IOUs in the name of their grandkids\u2026and enjoying itself.  While the Chinese are building one, a repository of wealth (money), and second the seemingly infinite ability to manufacture goods that can be supplied to the world.  Until now, the supply chain was a corporate concept.. as in a company\u2019s supply chain had to be efficient.  China gave a new dimension \u2013 National Supply Chain.  The Supply Chain of a country needs to be efficient.  And as of now, no one has it laid down as well as China!<\/p>\n<p>Now, look at the figure #2.  The race is between consumptions \u2013 of Goods and Treasuries.  Anyone who reduces the consumption of any one of these from the other \u2013 will put the entire World Economy in peril \u2013 not just each others\u2019!  So, even if China doesnt raise its investment in US Dollars as much as the rate of growth in US purchases from China, the results would be catastrophic!<\/p>\n<p>This is where the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/money\/main.jhtml?xml=\/money\/2007\/09\/05\/bcnchina105.xml\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">recent news<\/a> attains significance.  The signs are that this divergence might have just started!  Chinese Investments in US treasuries may be straightening.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So, where may the Chinese be investing in \u2013 if they aren\u2019t in US Dollar\u2026. and in any other alternative currency, as the data suggests?!  That centuries old investment \u2013 GOLD!<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\"We won\u2019t know if China is behind this until the Treasury releases its TIC data in November, but what it does show is that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the US. They don\u2019t seem to be switching into other currencies, so it is possible they are moving into gold instead. Gold is now gaining momentum across all currencies and has broken through resistance at 500 euros,\" he said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Not many people realize that the economic relationship between China and US is a quid pro quo that is just meant to prop up the feeling of wealth.  Despite the fact that I am nowhere near to as economic-savvy as most of the world economic gurus, I do believe it is a case of <em>&quot;Who Blinks first?&quot;<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/photobucket.com\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket\" src=\"http:\/\/i43.photobucket.com\/albums\/e375\/deshkapoor\/china.jpg\" align=\"right\" \/><\/a>kind of a scenario!<\/p>\n<p>The relationship though fruitful until now, is by no means sustainable on a long term basis!  Action of both, the US and China are meant to help each others economy.  What probably has not been factored is the rise or interaction of any other economic entity that might upset the cart!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1517,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,15,79],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-economics","category-us"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is the Great decline of US Dollar on the Horizon?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Not many people realize that the economic relationship between China and US is a quid pro quo that is just meant to prop up the feeling of wealth. Despite the fact that I am nowhere near to as economic-savvy as most of the world economic gurus, I do believe it is a case of &quot;Who Blinks first?&quot; kind of a scenario! The relationship though fruitful until now, is by no means sustainable on a long term basis! Action of both, the US and China are meant to help each others economy. What probably has not been factored is the rise or interaction of any other economic entity that might upset the cart!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/drishtikone\/2007\/09\/great-decline-us-dollar-horizon\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the Great decline of US Dollar on the Horizon?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Not many people realize that the economic relationship between China and US is a quid pro quo that is just meant to prop up the feeling of wealth. Despite the fact that I am nowhere near to as economic-savvy as most of the world economic gurus, I do believe it is a case of &quot;Who Blinks first?&quot; kind of a scenario! The relationship though fruitful until now, is by no means sustainable on a long term basis! Action of both, the US and China are meant to help each others economy. 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