{"id":497,"date":"2008-11-09T07:25:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-09T07:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html"},"modified":"2008-11-09T07:25:00","modified_gmt":"2008-11-09T07:25:00","slug":"another-argument-from-design","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html","title":{"rendered":"Another argument from design"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Another argument from design<\/a>, this time from Richard Swinburne<\/a>, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God?<\/span><\/a> Swinburne is featured in a PBS documentary (Closer to Truth: Cosmos, Consciousness, God<\/a><\/span>) \u2013 the same documentary that earlier brought us the thoughts of Robin Collins (see It\u2019s no surprise that the universe is habitable<\/a>)<\/p>\n

As with Collins, Science and Religion Today provides some space for Swinburne to summarize his case<\/a>. Now, Swinburne is a top theologian, so it should be pretty robust, right? Let\u2019s take a look\u2026<\/p>\n

First off he reminds us that there is a lot of order to the universe \u2013 things seem to happen quite neatly. He accepts that this isn\u2019t a total surprise, of course (we wouldn\u2019t be here to wonder about it otherwise). And as any weatherman can tell you, there\u2019s an awful lot of chaos out there too. So far so hum.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s then that he drops his clanger:<\/p>\n

An explanatory hypothesis is probably true insofar as it is simple and leads us to expect otherwise unexpected data. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is an extraordinary claim! It seems to be a mangling together of Popper\u2019s idea that falsifiability is at the heart of how we understand the world around us (i.e. the scientific method), and Occam\u2019s razor.<\/p>\n

Falsifiability is a powerful tool to separate truthful ideas about how the world works from mistaken ones. But the key to falsifiability is not simply that a hypothesis \u2018leads us to expect otherwise unexpected data\u2019. In fact, a true hypothesis should make some prediction about what will happen in the future that we wouldn\u2019t otherwise have been able to predict. And, crucially, we then have to go out and observe this prediction, and see that it comes true. Russell\u2019s Teapot<\/a> may well exist somewhere out there near the orbit of Mars, but it\u2019s a prediction that\u2019s utterly inconsequential (and therefore unscientific) because we have no way of observing it. It\u2019s a hypothesis that\u2019s not falsifiable.<\/p>\n

Occam\u2019s razor<\/a>, on the other hand, tells us nothing about what\u2019s true or not. What it does say is that, faced with two hypotheses that explain the observable data equally well, we should stick with the simplest one until we get some new data in. It doesn\u2019t mean the simplest explanation is true. In fact, it often turns out that the explanations are more complicated than we first thought. But what it does say is that you shouldn\u2019t confabulate complex theories unless there\u2019s a practical reason to do so.<\/p>\n

Together, these two \u2018rules of thumb\u2019 are a fantastic guide to sorting out the duff from the sublime. Swinburne\u2019s version, however, leads us into a kind of madness.<\/p>\n

For example. The sun rises every day. Now that\u2019s pretty unexpected \u2013 all things being equal you\u2019d expect it to stay in the same place. So here\u2019s a hypothesis: it\u2019s pulled round by a giant invisible turtle. That\u2019s pretty simple, right? After all, I wrote it in only 8 words. It\u2019s a simple hypothesis that leads us to expect the unexpected. By Swinburne\u2019s argument, that must mean it\u2019s probably true!<\/p>\n

But of course it isn\u2019t true. In fact it\u2019s a stupid hypothesis. The reason it\u2019s stupid is that only \u2018predicts\u2019 what we already knew. So it doesn\u2019t increase our power to explain the world. And it falls foul of Occam\u2019s razor because it\u2019s invented a new entity \u2013 the turtle \u2013 but not actually helped us to explain and understand the world. We would be better off without it.<\/p>\n

Keep that turtle in mind as you read Swinburne\u2019s article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is featured in a PBS documentary (Closer to Truth: Cosmos, Consciousness, God) \u2013 the same documentary that earlier brought us the thoughts of Robin Collins (see It\u2019s no surprise that the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2091,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nAnother argument from design<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Another argument from design\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Epiphenom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-11-09T07:25:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Epiphenom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Epiphenom\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html\",\"name\":\"Another argument from design\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2008-11-09T07:25:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2008-11-09T07:25:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#\/schema\/person\/98b4bf21daa886d9eb1d5f0e99643ad1\"},\"description\":\"Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Another argument from design\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/\",\"name\":\"Epiphenom\",\"description\":\"The science of religion and non-belief\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#\/schema\/person\/98b4bf21daa886d9eb1d5f0e99643ad1\",\"name\":\"Epiphenom\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9abb71dca9f11ec59b77b1fffa487fa?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9abb71dca9f11ec59b77b1fffa487fa?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Epiphenom\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/author\/trees\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Another argument from design","description":"Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Another argument from design","og_description":"Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html","og_site_name":"Epiphenom","article_published_time":"2008-11-09T07:25:00+00:00","author":"Epiphenom","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Epiphenom","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html","name":"Another argument from design","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#website"},"datePublished":"2008-11-09T07:25:00+00:00","dateModified":"2008-11-09T07:25:00+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#\/schema\/person\/98b4bf21daa886d9eb1d5f0e99643ad1"},"description":"Another argument from design, this time from Richard Swinburne, a theologian at Oxford University and author of the book Is there a God? Swinburne is","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/2008\/11\/another-argument-from-design.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Another argument from design"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/","name":"Epiphenom","description":"The science of religion and non-belief","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#\/schema\/person\/98b4bf21daa886d9eb1d5f0e99643ad1","name":"Epiphenom","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9abb71dca9f11ec59b77b1fffa487fa?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9abb71dca9f11ec59b77b1fffa487fa?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Epiphenom"},"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/author\/trees"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2091"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/epiphenom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}