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{"id":3567,"date":"2003-12-15T16:45:00","date_gmt":"2003-12-15T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/evetushnet\/2003\/12\/3567\/"},"modified":"2003-12-15T16:45:00","modified_gmt":"2003-12-15T16:45:00","slug":"3567","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/evetushnet\/2003\/12\/3567.html","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

JANUARY 2003 REASON DEBATE ON INVASION OF IRAQ<\/a><\/strong>: John Mueller (anti-invasion) vs. Brink Lindsey (pro). Worth a read, now.<\/p>\n

My take: Mueller misses the point of the North Korea comparison (he assumes Saddam-nukes are only geopolitically dangerous if Saddam makes the incredibly stupid decision to use them, rather than the not-stupid-at-all decision to use them as major leverage at the bargaining table) and somehow forgets that Saddam\u2019s sons were possibly more freakazoid than their father. <\/p>\n

He also conflates two kinds of threats: \u201cOne can\u2019t simultaneously maintain that Iraq\u2019s military forces will readily defect and can easily be walked over\u2013a common assumption among our war makers\u2013and also that this same pathetic military presents a serious international threat.\u201d I don\u2019t think any warmongers were arguing that Saddam\u2019s troops <\/em>were the problem.<\/p>\n

And he muddies distinctions between kinds of tyrants. Yeah, they\u2019re all egomaniacs. But nobody thinks Jean-Bertrand Aristide (or Papa Doc Duvalier!), or Fidel Castro, is trying to develop WMDs. How come?<\/p>\n

However<\/em>, he makes good points about the oil market, the terrorism ties, and the difference between international response to the Iran\/Iraq war and international response to any future (\u201cfuture\u201d from the January 2003 perspective of course) Iraqi invasion of Kuwait or elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Lindsey relies on the belief that Saddam was in the process of developing WMDs, which seems, at this point, either unlikely or a great anti<\/em>-war argument (= war led to WMDs being shipped out of Iraq to points unknown). Sure OK, pretty much everyone, including anti-war types, thought Saddam was amassing WMDs. Why wouldn\u2019t <\/em>he? Still, this point tells strongly against Lindsey today.<\/p>\n

Lindsey makes strong points about Saddam\u2019s wigfest character and Mueller\u2019s blitheness.<\/p>\n

The debate leaves me as clouded as ever\u2013I tend to think Mueller more persuasive\u2013but it is definitely worth a read. Via Hit & Run<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"