{"id":8393,"date":"2014-05-30T15:47:00","date_gmt":"2014-05-30T19:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/evetushnet\/?p=8393"},"modified":"2014-05-30T15:47:00","modified_gmt":"2014-05-30T19:47:00","slug":"way-too-early-to-declare-victory-in-war-against-mass-incarceration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/evetushnet\/2014\/05\/way-too-early-to-declare-victory-in-war-against-mass-incarceration.html","title":{"rendered":"“Way Too Early to Declare Victory in War Against Mass Incarceration”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

from the Brennan Center, possibly via Radley Balko<\/a> or PrisonCulture<\/a>:<\/p>\n

It is far too early, as a matter of law, of policy, and of fact, to be talking about a \u201cplummeting\u201d prison rate in the United States or to be declaring that the end is in sight in the war to change the nation\u2019s disastrous incarceration policies. There is still far too much to do, far too many onerous laws and policies to change, too many hearts and minds to reform, too many families that would have to be reunited, before anyone could say that any sort of \u201ctipping point\u201d has been spotted, let alone reached. So, to respond to Humphreys\u2019 work, we asked Oliver\u00a0Roeder, a resident economist at the Brennan Center for Justice, to crunch the numbers with a little bit more context and perspective. What follows below ought to shatter the myth that America has turned a corner on mass incarceration. The truth is that many states continue to experience more incarceration than before, the drop in national incarceration rates is far more modest than Humphreys suggests, and the trend toward reform could easily stop or turn back around on itself. Check out Roeder\u2019s work\u2026.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

more\u2013and scroll to the end for evidence of the disconnect between incarceration and crime rates<\/a><\/p>\n

Actually no, let me quote that end bit by itself:<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the story? Well one thing it isn\u2019t is crime. There is a body of evidence that indicates that crime doesn\u2019t really affect incarceration. Incarceration, rather, is a policy choice, largely independent of the actual level of crime in the world. (The incarceration rate is not a result of one single policy choice, of course, but rather is a function of many policy choices which compose essentially our willingness or propensity to incarcerate.)\u00a0 Admissions and thus incarceration were increasing because of increased willingness to incarcerate, or reliance on incarceration. I don\u2019t have a good sense as to why admissions and incarceration have been dipping lately, but it does seem to be driven by a minority of (typically large) states.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

whole thing<\/a><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

from the Brennan Center, possibly via Radley Balko or PrisonCulture: It is far too early, as a matter of law, of policy, and of fact, to be talking about a \u201cplummeting\u201d prison rate in the United States or to be declaring that the end is in sight in the war to change the nation\u2019s disastrous […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1071,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[31,106,107,51],"class_list":["post-8393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-god-bless-the-1990s-because-no-one-else-will","tag-no-more-cotton-pickin-prisons","tag-prayers-to-st-joseph-cafasso","tag-so-far-from-god-so-close-to-the-united-states"],"yoast_head":"\n"Way Too Early to Declare Victory in War Against Mass Incarceration"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"from the Brennan Center, possibly via Radley 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