{"id":3418,"date":"2010-10-11T23:00:35","date_gmt":"2010-10-12T03:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.faithpromotingrumor.com\/?p=3418"},"modified":"2010-10-11T23:00:35","modified_gmt":"2010-10-12T03:00:35","slug":"guest-post-mid-term-elections-the-tea-party-and-historical-context","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/faithpromotingrumor\/2010\/10\/guest-post-mid-term-elections-the-tea-party-and-historical-context\/","title":{"rendered":"Guest Post: Mid-Term Elections, The Tea Party and Historical Context"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Allen V. is a political scientist. His academic specialties include international relations, American Politics, and American Political Thought. He is also a veteran of the world of campaign politics. I am happy to share with you some of his musings about this campaign season.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is a lot of discussion about a fundamental transformation underway in American Politics. \u00a0Right leaning political pundits celebrate the Tea Party movement as a historic shift from the longstanding political environment. \u00a0Beck in particular, with his inspired constitutional restoration to save a document \u201changing by a thread<\/a>\u201d stands as the best example of this line of thinking. \u00a0Many Democrats have bought this rhetoric and are fretting this election as a new \u201cend of times<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is certain that Republicans will do very well in the upcoming midterms. \u00a0What is often forgotten is that the party out of power (the opposite party of the sitting president) often does very well in midterm elections. \u00a0We seem to have lost a little historical context as we consider the current election.<\/p>\n

In the House, for example, there are currently 255 Democrats (178 Republicans). \u00a0Based on Nate Silvers\u2019\u00a0predictio<\/a>n based on 100,000 simulations of current polling data, the new House after the election would likely be 226.5 Republicans (208.5 Democrats). \u00a0I say we have a lottery to decide which Congressman gets the Solomon treatment.<\/p>\n

If these numbers hold true, that would represent a shift of 47 seats (rounding for that .5 seat). \u00a0This transition would be just the 7th largest shift since 1942. \u00a0It would fall 7 seats short of the Republican\u2019s 1994 Contract with America which netted 54 additional seats for the GOP. \u00a0 It also falls just short of the largest GOP losses of 48 seats in 1958 and 1974.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The average loss, throwing out the two times that the party in power gained seats, is 29.5 seats. \u00a0This election will certainly be above average in terms of lost seats, but is unlikely to be historic as has been argued by some.<\/p>\n

In many ways, given the deep recession, the GOP performance seems to clearly underwhelm. \u00a0GOP approval ratings<\/a> are still lower than approval ratings for\u00a0President Obama<\/a>. \u00a0 The selection of tea party candidates in a number of seat have made them competitive elections when in any other year with similar conditions they would be strongly in GOP hands. \u00a0High unemployment and other ongoing economic concerns should point to a historic transition. \u00a0Instead, this one is likely to fall only in the top third of midterm elections in terms of number of seats lost.<\/p>\n

What does it mean? \u00a0Electors are certainly upset, and while some are clearly motivated by the more extreme rhetoric of Beck, Limbaugh, etc., most Americans remain fed up with both parties. \u00a0They are willing to replace a number of members of Congress (particularly Democrats in\u00a0susceptible seats)\u00a0, but are also underwhelmed by the choices offered by the GOP. \u00a0The GOP will perform under its potential in this election cycle given the conditions in which it takes place.<\/p>\n

I believe it is the excessively conservative ideas embedded in the GOP\u2019s candidates and messages which challenge what the American people really want \u2013 responsible and shared governance by both parties. \u00a0Americans don\u2019t want truth determined by ideology, they want members of Congress to sit down and to work together regardless of ideology. \u00a0After all, isn\u2019t that the true lesson of the founding fathers? \u00a0Those men came together with very different views about the future and direction of our nation. \u00a0They compromised, worked through differences and created the document that is so frequently discussed this election cycle.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Allen V. is a political scientist. His academic specialties include international relations, American Politics, and American Political Thought. He is also a veteran of the world of campaign politics. I am happy to share with you some of his musings about this campaign season. There is a lot of discussion about a fundamental transformation underway […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":463,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nGuest Post: Mid-Term Elections, The Tea Party and Historical Context<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Allen V. is a political scientist. His academic specialties include international relations, American Politics, and American Political Thought. 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