{"id":17594,"date":"2014-01-01T06:00:33","date_gmt":"2014-01-01T11:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?p=17594"},"modified":"2013-12-31T22:45:19","modified_gmt":"2014-01-01T03:45:19","slug":"your-predictions-for-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"Your predictions for 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Happy New Year\u2019s!\u00a0 It\u2019s time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will then review those predictions on December 31, as we did yesterday, heaping honors upon the best prognosticators.\u00a0 So predict away!\u00a0 After the jump, some reflections on predictions.Most predictions take a current trend or phenomenon and then extrapolate it into the future.\u00a0 That can work up to a point, but then what the old philosophers and theologians called \u201cthe contingency of being\u201d kicks in.\u00a0 Contingency means that surprising things happen, upsetting our rational expectations.\u00a0 Things could be different than they are.\u00a0 And conditions keep changing on us.\u00a0 (There is even an argument for the existence of God based on the contingency of existence<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

For example, tech mystics take the fact that computer memory keeps growing exponentially and project that out into the future, so that at some omega point we will reach an event horizon in which computers become sentient and we can all become immortal by downloading our consciousness into the internet.\u00a0 So that may well happen, but then the site at which we download our minds turns out to be HealthCare.gov.<\/p>\n

\n

The best predictions are those that foresee not just a continuation of a trend but some contingent fact, preferably one that throws a monkey wrench into the trend or that starts a new one.<\/p>\n

So try to be specific in your prediction, which will make it all the more amazing if it comes true.\u00a0 (I know that contingencies are, by definition, unpredictable, but still. . . .)<\/p>\n

For example, a few years ago, tODD predicted that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il would die and be succeeded by his son Kim Jong Un.\u00a0 Who even knew about Kim Jong Un at the time?\u00a0 But here he is today, hanging out with DennisRodman, executing his relatives, and machine-gunning citizens who possess a Bible.<\/p>\n

And in our last contest, SAL predicted that 2013 would see a new pope.\u00a0 At the time of the prediction, Pope Benedict was still rather new at the job.\u00a0\u00a0 No pope had resigned for six centuries.\u00a0 Perhaps SAL thought he would die.\u00a0 But that a new pope would be chosen in 2013 was hardly obvious and was seemingly unlikely.\u00a0 But SAL predicted this contingency and so took the prize.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Happy New Year\u2019s!\u00a0 It\u2019s time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will then review those predictions on December 31, as we did yesterday, heaping honors upon the best prognosticators.\u00a0 So predict away!\u00a0 After the jump, some […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1281,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,35],"tags":[2941,1778,2940],"class_list":["post-17594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-holidays","category-philosophy-2","tag-contingency-of-being","tag-predictions","tag-predictions-for-2014"],"yoast_head":"\nYour predictions for 2014<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Happy New Year's!\u00a0 It's time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Your predictions for 2014\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Happy New Year's!\u00a0 It's time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Cranach\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-01-01T11:00:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-01-01T03:45:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gene Veith\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gene Veith\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/\",\"name\":\"Your predictions for 2014\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-01-01T11:00:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-01-01T03:45:19+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1\"},\"description\":\"Happy New Year's!\u00a0 It's time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Your predictions for 2014\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/\",\"name\":\"Cranach\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1\",\"name\":\"Gene Veith\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Gene Veith\"},\"description\":\"Gene Edward Veith, Jr. is a writer and retired literature professor, serving as Provost Emeritus at Patrick Henry College. He has authored over 25 books on Christianity and culture, literature, classical education, and theology. Dr. Veith previously held academic and editorial roles at Concordia University Wisconsin and WORLD Magazine. A respected voice in Lutheran and classical education circles, he holds a Ph.D. in English and several honorary doctorates. He and his wife, Jackquelyn, live in St. Louis and have three children and twelve grandchildren.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/\",\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gene_Edward_Veith\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/author\/geneveith\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Your predictions for 2014","description":"Happy New Year's!\u00a0 It's time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Your predictions for 2014","og_description":"Happy New Year's!\u00a0 It's time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/","og_site_name":"Cranach","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/","article_published_time":"2014-01-01T11:00:33+00:00","article_modified_time":"2014-01-01T03:45:19+00:00","author":"Gene Veith","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gene Veith","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/","name":"Your predictions for 2014","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website"},"datePublished":"2014-01-01T11:00:33+00:00","dateModified":"2014-01-01T03:45:19+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1"},"description":"Happy New Year's!\u00a0 It's time to look ahead on the year to come and to make our annual predictions about what we expect to happen in the new year.\u00a0 We will","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2014\/01\/your-predictions-for-2014\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Your predictions for 2014"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/","name":"Cranach","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1","name":"Gene Veith","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Gene Veith"},"description":"Gene Edward Veith, Jr. is a writer and retired literature professor, serving as Provost Emeritus at Patrick Henry College. He has authored over 25 books on Christianity and culture, literature, classical education, and theology. Dr. Veith previously held academic and editorial roles at Concordia University Wisconsin and WORLD Magazine. A respected voice in Lutheran and classical education circles, he holds a Ph.D. in English and several honorary doctorates. He and his wife, Jackquelyn, live in St. Louis and have three children and twelve grandchildren.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/","https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gene_Edward_Veith"],"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/author\/geneveith\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1281"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17594\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}