{"id":24084,"date":"2016-06-01T05:30:29","date_gmt":"2016-06-01T09:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?p=24084"},"modified":"2016-05-31T23:45:25","modified_gmt":"2016-06-01T03:45:25","slug":"correlation-is-not-causation-in-study-of-elca-racial-diversity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/06\/correlation-is-not-causation-in-study-of-elca-racial-diversity\/","title":{"rendered":"Correlation is not causation in study of ELCA racial diversity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>
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More evidence that scientists\u2013especially social scientists\u2013need to study philosophy, particularly the complicated question of what constitutes causality: \u00a0A study of ELCA congregations has found that the more racially diverse \u00a0a congregation is, the more it has declined in attendance. \u00a0The implication being that white people leave when minority races show up. \u00a0This effect is especially evident, the study says, in older congregations.<\/p>\n

But there are lots of reasons that ELCA congregations have been declining in membership! \u00a0The study says nothing about the theological shift leftward that has caused so many members to leave. \u00a0Or, even more to the point, neighborhood demographics. \u00a0\u201cOlder congregations\u201d originally started in big cities are nearly always in decline as assimilated immigrants and\u00a0young families move to the suburbs. \u00a0These congregations do pick up some racially diverse members from the neighborhood, but since African-Americans don\u2019t have a tradition of becoming\u00a0ELCA Lutherans (though they could well be Missouri Synod Lutherans, which has a long tradition of black membership), there will be a net loss. \u00a0But to interpret this as racism is grossly inaccurate. \u00a0To use statistical terms, correlation is not causation.<\/p>\n

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From \u00a0Study: Changes in racial composition lead to decline in church attendance | Religion News Service<\/a>:<\/em><\/p>\n

The more mixed the Sunday morning pews are, the fewer people are likely to be in them.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the primary finding of a new study from Baylor University published in the current Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.<\/em>
\nResearchers studied the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, where racial diversity doubled from 1993 to 2012, and found that, at the same time, churches with the greatest diversity growth also had the steepest declines in attendance. . . .<\/p>\n

The study also found:<\/p>\n