{"id":24881,"date":"2016-08-15T05:45:44","date_gmt":"2016-08-15T09:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?p=24881"},"modified":"2016-08-14T23:17:12","modified_gmt":"2016-08-15T03:17:12","slug":"the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/","title":{"rendered":"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin threw his hat into the ring.<\/p>\n

But\u00a0inconsistencies and questions have arisen about his resume<\/a>\u00a0(HT: Carl Vehse). \u00a0Also,\u00a0Maggie Gallagher<\/a>\u00a0has pointed out his weakness on issues important to social conservatives. \u00a0(For example, he is OK with gay marriage, says little about life issues beyond not wanting taxpayer money to pay for abortions, says little about religious liberty, etc.)<\/p>\n

And yet, Josh Gelertner shows a scenario in which he actually could win. \u00a0All McMullin, a devout Mormon,\u00a0has to do is win Utah. \u00a0And then neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton would win a majority of electoral votes, throwing the election to the House of Representatives. \u00a0Each state has one vote. \u00a0Republicans control 32 delegations, Democrats have 15, and 3 are tied. \u00a0So no way would Clinton win. \u00a0Gelertner believes Democrats would throw their support to McMullin, and enough Republican states would have voted against Trump to justify their turning to McMullin as a compromise. \u00a0You can see Gelertner\u2019s math after the jump.<\/p>\n

\n

But his victory also hinges on nobody voting for him outside of Utah.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

From Josh Gelertner, \u00a0Evan McMullin, Independent Candidate: Does He Have a Chance? | National Review<\/a>:<\/em><\/p>\n

If McMullin could force the election to the House, he has a decent chance. A better chance than Hillary, in fact, who would have none: When the House decides a presidential election, each state delegation gets one vote. Currently, 32 state delegations have Republican majorities, 15 have Democratic majorities, and 3 are tied. That rules out Hillary. If House Democrats are sincere when they talk about Trump being dangerous, they would cast their 15 votes for McMullin. (If they\u2019re cynical enough to gamble that a President Trump would guarantee a Democratic president four years from now, then they vote for Hillary.) As a compromise candidate, McMullin would also, presumably, get the votes of the three tied delegations. Bringing him to 18 votes. Add Utah, and he has 19. He would have to swing 7 more state delegations to beat Trump. And that\u2019s possible: of the remaining Republican-delegation states, several will have voted for Hillary in the general election. Probably Colorado, probably Wisconsin, possibly Iowa, possibly Nevada, possibly North Carolina. That would give them cover to choose a compromise candidate. Additional states with Republican delegations could justify voting McMullin instead of Trump because they voted against Trump in the primaries: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, and Idaho.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

[Keep reading. . .]\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Now Gelertner pretty much takes back even this unlikely scenario when he said that McMullin must run only in Utah, since a national campaign could siphon off enough votes to elect Clinton. \u00a0So even if you want him to win, you\u201dd better not vote for him.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin threw his hat into the ring. But\u00a0inconsistencies and questions have arisen about his resume\u00a0(HT: Carl Vehse). \u00a0Also,\u00a0Maggie Gallagher\u00a0has pointed out his weakness on issues important to social conservatives. \u00a0(For example, he is OK with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1281,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[3457,4728,4565],"class_list":["post-24881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-2016-presidential-election","tag-evan-mcmullin","tag-never-trump-conservatives"],"yoast_head":"\nThe problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Cranach\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-08-15T09:45:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-08-15T03:17:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gene Veith\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gene Veith\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/\",\"name\":\"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-08-15T09:45:44+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-08-15T03:17:12+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1\"},\"description\":\"NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/\",\"name\":\"Cranach\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1\",\"name\":\"Gene Veith\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Gene Veith\"},\"description\":\"Gene Edward Veith, Jr. is a writer and retired literature professor, serving as Provost Emeritus at Patrick Henry College. He has authored over 25 books on Christianity and culture, literature, classical education, and theology. Dr. Veith previously held academic and editorial roles at Concordia University Wisconsin and WORLD Magazine. A respected voice in Lutheran and classical education circles, he holds a Ph.D. in English and several honorary doctorates. He and his wife, Jackquelyn, live in St. Louis and have three children and twelve grandchildren.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/\",\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gene_Edward_Veith\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/author\/geneveith\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win","description":"NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win","og_description":"NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/","og_site_name":"Cranach","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/","article_published_time":"2016-08-15T09:45:44+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-08-15T03:17:12+00:00","author":"Gene Veith","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gene Veith","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/","name":"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website"},"datePublished":"2016-08-15T09:45:44+00:00","dateModified":"2016-08-15T03:17:12+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1"},"description":"NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2016\/08\/the-problems-with-evan-mcmullin-but-he-has-one-chance-to-win\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The problems with Evan McMullin, but he has one chance to win"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/","name":"Cranach","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/f9ca8670bcc51908a78994c0484dbfa1","name":"Gene Veith","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/054d79faea5d476edd8f99e5f14fb17f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Gene Veith"},"description":"Gene Edward Veith, Jr. is a writer and retired literature professor, serving as Provost Emeritus at Patrick Henry College. He has authored over 25 books on Christianity and culture, literature, classical education, and theology. Dr. Veith previously held academic and editorial roles at Concordia University Wisconsin and WORLD Magazine. A respected voice in Lutheran and classical education circles, he holds a Ph.D. in English and several honorary doctorates. He and his wife, Jackquelyn, live in St. Louis and have three children and twelve grandchildren.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cranachblog\/","https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gene_Edward_Veith"],"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/author\/geneveith\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1281"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24881"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24881\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}