{"id":56950,"date":"2021-09-15T06:00:42","date_gmt":"2021-09-15T10:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/?p=56950"},"modified":"2021-09-14T09:01:18","modified_gmt":"2021-09-14T13:01:18","slug":"where-we-are-with-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/geneveith\/2021\/09\/where-we-are-with-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Where We Are with COVID"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Where are we with the COVID pandemic?\u00a0 Is it winding down or getting worse?\u00a0 Does the Delta variant and the prospect of other mutations mean that we should implement a never-ending lockdown?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Science,\u201d spoken of as a single authority giving indubitable answers, doesn\u2019t really know and is giving many contradictory answers.<\/p>\n

And yet, we can be confident in some larger, time-tested facts, that pandemics eventually come to an end, as \u201cpandemic\u201d diseases become \u201cendemic\u201d; that is, they lessen in severity and become just regular sicknesses that flesh is heir to.<\/p>\n

Marc Fisher has written an informative article<\/a> on this subject for the Washington Post<\/em>, which is being reprinted elsewhere.<\/p>\n

\n

I especially appreciated the comments he cites from med school professor and infectious disease expert Monica Gandhi, who offers a different kind of take on the question.<\/p>\n

From Marc Fisher in the Washington Post<\/em>,\u00a0The COVID endgame: Is the pandemic over already? Or are there years to go?<\/a>\u00a0(my bolds):<\/p>\n

\u201cI truly, truly think we are in the endgame,\u201d said Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist and professor of medicine at the University of California at San Francisco. \u201cThe cases will start plummeting in mid-to-late September and by mid-October, we will be in a manageable place, where the virus is a concern for health professionals, but not really for the general public.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gandhi bases her optimism on the fact that all previous epidemics of respiratory viruses have ended through the acquisition of immunity, whether by vaccination or natural infection. Although viruses do keep changing, potentially circumventing people\u2019s defenses, \u201cthey mutate quickly, at a cost to themselves,\u201d weakening over time. Gandhi said she believes the delta variant that has hit the United States so hard this summer will mark the peak of this virus\u2019s strength. . . .<\/p>\n

Gandhi, too, has concluded that as scary and dangerous as the delta variant has been, \u201cwe\u2019re sort of at the peak of the pandemic because the delta variant is causing immunity like crazy. Delta comes in like a hurricane, but it leaves a lot of immunity in its wake<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although its rapid spread and severe impact on some people are scary, the delta version has a hidden benefit: It makes future variants less likely to be more lethal, Gandhi said.<\/p>\n

COVID isn\u2019t going away \u2014 \u201cwe\u2019re going to get it,\u201d Gandhi said \u2014 but as immunity increases, the virus will cause less harm. People will come to terms with it as they have with the common cold or the flu.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n
\n

\u201cUnless you just sit in your room, you\u2019re going to get it in your nose,\u201d she said, \u201cbut at least in this country, it will be manageable.\u201d<\/p>\n

The big problem now, Gandhi said, is fear, \u201cexcessive fear of the pandemic on both sides<\/strong>,\u201d she said. \u201cDemocrats overestimate the death rate and Republicans underestimate it.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

That produces the psychological and political hurdles that are preventing a return to normal life, she said.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Not all of the experts quoted in the article are this optimistic, but her bad news\/good news assessment of the Delta strain makes sense.\u00a0 Lots of people are getting infected, but the more who get infected and recover, which is the vast majority of cases, the more immunity the population has.\u00a0 And she is surely right that what is paralyzing us today are \u201cthe psychological and political hurdles\u201d due to our political polarization.<\/p>\n

We will see if her prediction that cases will plummet later this month holds true.\u00a0 That kind of prediction, unlike many others we keep hearing, is verifiable.<\/p>\n

We are already at the middle of September and cases are still high.\u00a0 Here<\/a> is an alternative, pessimistic analysis.<\/p>\n

What do you think will happen?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Image by\u00a0Lothar Dieterich<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a0Pixabay<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When will the COVID pandemic finally be over? “The Science” can’t give us definitive answers. But there are reasons for optimism. One expert points out that the ultra-contagious Delta virus is creating more infections, “but it leaves a lot of immunity in its wake.” And that our psychological and political polarization has become the biggest obstacle to returning to normal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1281,"featured_media":56960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,33,40],"tags":[10811,9377,11116],"class_list":["post-56950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-medicine","category-nature","category-science","tag-coronavirus-pandemic","tag-covid-19","tag-end-of-covid-restrictions"],"yoast_head":"\nWhere We Are with COVID<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When will the COVID pandemic finally be over? 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