{"id":748,"date":"2016-02-01T10:53:30","date_gmt":"2016-02-01T14:53:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/gloryseed\/?p=748"},"modified":"2016-02-02T07:55:35","modified_gmt":"2016-02-02T11:55:35","slug":"the-big-short-the-rest-of-the-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/gloryseed\/2016\/02\/the-big-short-the-rest-of-the-story\/","title":{"rendered":"The Big Short: the Rest of the Story"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><head><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><\/head><body><p><figure id=\"attachment_752\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-752\" style=\"width: 192px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/609\/2016\/02\/271345.jpg\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-752\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/609\/2016\/02\/271345-192x300.jpg\" alt=\"http:\/\/www.movieinsider.com\/m6937\/the-big-short-inside-the-doomsday-machine\" width=\"192\" height=\"300\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-752\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">http:\/\/www.movieinsider.com\/m6937\/the-big-short-inside-the-doomsday-machine<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><p><em><strong>By 2004 I owned real estate in 3 states, had 18 tenants, and two people worked for me part-time. In 2006 I sold it all, paid enough capital gains tax to support a family of 4 for a year, and sat down to watch the world come to an end.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>I did pretty well. Really well, considering I had a wife, three small children, a growing church, a church building program, and I taught philosophy at a local college. I built the real estate portfolio in my spare time.<\/p>\n<p>Getting rich wasn\u2019t the goal, financial independence was. I was on my way out of my old denomination and I needed a golden parachute. In the corporate world sometimes you get one of those when you leave that world behind. I had to make my own.<\/p>\n<p>But I could see what was coming with the housing bubble. Don\u2019t let anyone fool you, lots of people saw what was coming. The problem wasn\u2019t information, the problem was psychology. I\u2019ll get to that in a minute.<\/p>\n<p>So, after I left my old church, I decided to help others get out.<\/p>\n<p>From 2004 through 2007 I represented small real estate investors as they liquidated their holdings. Those were halcyon days if you were a seller.<\/p>\n<p>The prices made no sense from an investor\u2019s point of view and all the old timers knew it. So I bought the grand lists from the nearby towns (a grand list is a list of properties and their owners including the mailing addresses of owners) and I began a direct marketing campaign.<\/p>\n<p>My message was simple. I was the Jeremiah of my market. <em>\u201cGet out now before it\u2019s too late!\u201d<\/em> I helped a lot of people get out. In my first year I became the number one listing agent of small investment property in a 20 mile radius. By the end of 2007 it really was too late and I went on to do other things.<\/p>\n<p>This is why watching, The Big Short was a little trip down memory lane for me. I could feel the old juices flowing. Those were fun times if you kept your head. Most people didn\u2019t. I recommend seeing the film, it\u2019s great. If you\u2019re not familiar with it, here\u2019s the trailer\u2013<\/p>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Big Short Official Trailer #1 (2015) - Brad Pitt, Christian Bale Drama Movie HD\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LWr8hbUkG9s?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<p>I just have some quick thoughts on this. The film gets some things right, but it is a little fraudulent itself in a few ways.<\/p>\n<p><strong>First, you need to understand how a short works.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s the concept that most people don\u2019t understand: when prices move, you can make money, no matter which way they move. Anyone can make money in a rising market. That\u2019s when everyone is happy and even idiots pat themselves on the back. But you can also make money when the herd is losing it. That takes real intelligence and lots of guts.<\/p>\n<p>A short is something that increases in value when something else goes down in value. Think of it like a see-saw. When one is up, the other is down and vice-versa.<\/p>\n<p>The derivatives market is where folk can invest in this sort of thing. You can buy puts on equities that will increase in value as the underlying equities lose value. It\u2019s subtle, and only for the big boys. People didn\u2019t think that sort of thing could be done with mortgages. What happened with the men who shorted the market in mortgaged backed securities is they actually created a way to short the market, something called a <em>credit default swap<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>You really don\u2019t need to understand the instrument itself, just keep that see-saw concept in mind. When the market went down and millions of people lost billions of dollars, these guys hit the jackpot.<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What The Big Short got right:<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>The madness of crowds<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Have you ever seen a pi\u00f1ata burst at a child\u2019s birthday party and the mad scramble that follows? That\u2019s what it was like. People turned their houses into ATMs, cashing out equity to buy boats, fund trips to Disney World, and buy many other things that either evaporate or depreciate rapidly. Everybody was on a first name basis with their mortgage brokers since they refinanced their homes at least once a year. Maybe worse, many of these people became mortgage brokers themselves.<\/p>\n<p>But what made it different from a pi\u00f1ata is many people thought the world generated pi\u00f1atas, it was made of pi\u00f1atas. And when you brought up how crazy it all was people said what they always say when there\u2019s a financial bubble, \u201cIt\u2019s different this time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Wall Street itself is a bubble\u2013of a different kind<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The people who work there think they live and work in the real world, but they don\u2019t. Wall Street is an echo chamber, worse, it\u2019s like high school, where all the cool rich kids really don\u2019t believe the rules that apply to others also apply to them. Everything is mediated, people live by the numbers, and the numbers are trusted even when they don\u2019t add up with home-truths like, \u201cThis is too good to be true\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>In the film, Mark Baum, the character Steve Carell plays, suspects there is a bubble keeping him from the truth, so he gets out and visits the world I lived in, the world of wildly over-valued real estate and sleazy mortgage brokers (I knew some). Then he goes off to another world where the folks who worked bundling bonds and bond-rating all reveal themselves to be on the make. After each encounter Baum ups his bet against the system.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>It takes a commitment to reality and tremendous self-confidence to bet against the mob<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>When people want something to be the case, you run the risk of making lots of people angry when you tell the truth. That, or you\u2019re laughed out of the room. Both happened to our heroes in The Big Short. But these men had the strength of will and the courage to remain true to their convictions. Why? Because they were in touch with reality. It is amazing how people can succumb to the belief that reality is subject to a vote, that if enough people want something to be true, it is. But it happens a lot.<\/p>\n<p>There is a larger bubble than the one on Wall Street, it is the mediated world of popular culture. Millions of people don\u2019t live in reality. Unlike the outsiders in The Big Short, they have no basis for independent judgment and consequently no self-confidence. They always defer to authority, whether that authority is CNBC or the latest narrative handed down by the savants of political correctness. We\u2019re a nation of patsies.<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Now for what the film misses<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>The big banks had a lot of help<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The moral of the film is: big banks are evil. That\u2019s just too easy. Complicity was nearly universal. Sure, the banks have a lot to account for. I hate big banks. (I didn\u2019t use them at all when I was investing. I only worked with local banks. I knew the people who lent me money and they knew me.)<\/p>\n<p>But you\u2019re fooling yourself if you think the banks acted alone. No one wanted the gravy train to stop.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Liberals were part of the problem<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Guess what, politicians like Barney Frank, actually played a role in creating the whole crisis by encouraging lenders to lower credit worthiness standards in order to get low income people in on the bonanza.<\/p>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Barney Frank in 2005: What Housing Bubble?\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/iW5qKYfqALE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<p>I remember a deal I helped broker with an ethic minority buyer with bad credit who actually managed to get 100% financing on a two family in need of a new roof. $20,000 went back to him at closing to pay for it. A year later I drove down the street the house is on. It was in foreclosure and nothing had been done to the roof. Checking into it I discovered the buyer put the money up his nose (cocaine) and he had not made single payment on the loan. The mortgage broker had played by the rules and everyone had gone away from the deal thinking he was an agent of social justice.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Breaking up the big banks won\u2019t solve the problem<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Do you recognize any of these names? Cape Cod Bank, Savings Bank of Manchester, Rockville Bank? Those were the banks I worked with a decade ago. They were all local banks, I think all of them were over a hundred years old when I did business with them. They knew their communities well. They\u2019re all gone now.<\/p>\n<p>Rockville Bank actually survived the crash and didn\u2019t need any bailout money. The crash isn\u2019t why it is gone. The reason its gone is the global market. In order to compete its shareholders felt it need more resources, so it merged with another bank. Now it is a regional bank and all the people I knew there are long gone.<\/p>\n<p>There has been a brain-drain in local banking. The accumulated wisdom that took decades to create is gone. It is nearly impossible to find a bank with a real commitment to the community it is in. Breaking up the big banks won\u2019t bring that back. It is a resource that will take decades to nourish to have again, if we can ever get it back.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A final thought\u2013the next bubble to burst<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bubbles form when people no longer have any direct basis in reality for judging the value of things. People want experts to tell them what to believe and they want other people to take the risks.<\/p>\n<p>Where do we see this today? It\u2019s all around us.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m shorting the welfare state. It is overvalued and unsustainable. But when I say this to people, they look a me like I\u2019m insane. The welfare state is a bubble that could never burst.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve seen that look before. You may want to join me in shorting the welfare state, I\u2019ll tell you how I\u2019m doing it piecemeal in this blog over time.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By 2004 I owned real estate in 3 states, had 18 tenants, and two people worked for me part-time. In 2006 I sold it all, paid enough capital gains tax to support a family of 4 for a year, and sat down to watch the world come to an end. I did pretty well. Really [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2522,"featured_media":752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,37,11,162,38,16,40],"tags":[174,92,94,95,93],"class_list":["post-748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-film","category-happiness","category-household-economy","category-productive-property","category-social-ethics","category-the-pastors-survival-guide","category-virtue","tag-film","tag-housing-bubble","tag-investing-in-real-estate","tag-local-banking","tag-the-big-short"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Big Short: the Rest of the Story<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By 2004 I owned real estate in 3 states, had 18 tenants, and two people worked for me part-time. 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