{"id":372,"date":"2016-08-23T13:18:03","date_gmt":"2016-08-23T17:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/?p=372"},"modified":"2016-08-23T13:24:12","modified_gmt":"2016-08-23T17:24:12","slug":"hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/","title":{"rendered":"Hillary Clinton&#8217;s low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><head><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><\/head><body><p><figure id=\"attachment_374\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-374\" style=\"width: 480px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/700\/2016\/08\/cards-1437776_640-e1471973016250.jpg\" alt=\"cards-1437776_640\" width=\"480\" height=\"320\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-374\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/en\/cards-dealer-black-jack-casino-bet-1437776\/\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Pixabay<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><p>Given the historic unpopularity of Republican presidential Donald Trump, the weirdness of the 2016 cycle finds expression in an intriguing notion: What if the Democratic Party carried Utah for the first time since 1964?<\/p>\n<p>More than other Republican constituencies, surveys indicate that <a href='https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/library\/mormonism' target='_blank'>Mormons<\/a> are less likely to support Trump. Whereas we constantly see polls showing that white evangelicals are supporting Trump my margins that match or exceed their support for Mitt Romney in 2012, Mormons seem to be holding out.<\/p>\n<p>This has fueled speculation that independent candidate Evan McMullin could be very competitive in the Beehive State. But he won\u2019t be.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">New Utah poll (from PPP):<br>\nTrump 39%<br>\nClinton 24%<br>\nJohnson 12%<br>\nMcMullin 9%<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zMTGTMll64\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/zMTGTMll64<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mckaycoppins\/status\/768128681990578179\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 23, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" async=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>And although Utah is typically the most reliably Republican state in the union, some Democrats think Mrs. Clinton has a legitimate chance to pick up its six electoral votes.<\/p>\n<p>A few weeks ago, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for his wife in Utah. In addition, the former senator and top diplomat <a href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/dem-mormon-outreach-clinton-pens-op-ed-for-utah-newspaper\/\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\">published an op-ed<\/a> in Salt Lake City\u2019s metropolitan daily, the Deseret News, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/can-hillary-clinton-woo-utah-republicans-who-hate-trump\/\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\">outlining her appeal<\/a> to the states heavily Mormon electorate.<\/p>\n<p>Clinton\u2019s outreach is a half-measure that is unlikely to be fruitful. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n<h2><!--nextpage--><br>\nLow-risk<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_328\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-328\" style=\"width: 480px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-328 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/700\/2016\/08\/salt-lake-city-485937_640-e1471972907953.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-328\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image credit: Pixabay<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Mrs. Clinton is not changing any of her positions. Utah Republicans are, like Republicans in most places, economically and socially conservative. They may be turned off by Trump\u2019s bombastic personality and outrageous statements, but they are certainly not warm to Clinton\u2019s brand of big-government liberalism.<\/p>\n<p>If she wanted to peel off conservative voters in Utah (or anywhere else), she would have to do more than attack Trump. She would need to highlight positions that conservatives agree with. These might include \u201cReform conservative\u201d policies like using the tax code to incentivize labor force participation and child bearing. She could also speak out in defense of the rights of Mormon institutions like Brigham Young University to dissent from LGBT equality on religious grounds. But she is not going to do any of these things.<\/p>\n<h2><!--nextpage--><\/h2>\n<h2>Low-cost<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_333\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-333\" style=\"width: 480px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-333\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/700\/2016\/08\/salt-lake-city-438610_640.jpg\" alt=\"Image credit: Pixabay\" width=\"480\" height=\"640\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-333\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image credit: Pixabay<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Democrats\u2019 play for Utah is virtually cost-free in both a literal and figurative sense. Since the nominee is not adopting any positions that might appeal to Republicans wary of Trump, she is not paying a price with liberal voters or interest groups in any way.<\/p>\n<p>Further, the campaign and related PACs are not, at this point, committing significant financial resources to competing in Utah. To date, they have not spent enough money on ads or field operations to convince anyone that they think they have a serious shot at winning Utah.<\/p>\n<h2><!--nextpage--><\/h2>\n<h2>Low-reward<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_373\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-373\" style=\"width: 480px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-373\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/700\/2016\/08\/salt-lake-city-731645_640.jpg\" alt=\"Salt Lake City Public Library Image credit: Pixabay\" width=\"480\" height=\"640\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-373\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt Lake City Public Library<br>Image credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/en\/salt-lake-city-public-library-731645\/\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Pixabay<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>There is not much upside to Clinton\u2019s LDS outreach, such as it is. Even if she risked the ire of her core coalition (which she won\u2019t), there is not much to gain politically. If Clinton wins Utah, she will be elected in a once-in-a-generation landslide. But even if she does not, she has a much better chance to win battleground states that President Obama won in 2008 but that flipped back to the Republican column in 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Even though Mormons are likelier than, say, evangelical Protestants to believe Trump\u2019s obnoxiousness is disqualifying, there is nothing in the present political landscape that points toward a realignment of Mormon voters to the Democratic Party. We should keep an eye on how strongly Utah\u2019s non-Mormons identify with the Democrats. And we should always pay close attention to religious groups\u2019 rates of fertility, intra-marriage, and adult retention.<\/p>\n<p>But Utah remains a solidly conservative state. There\u2019s not much Mrs. Clinton could do to change that, and even if there was, it would almost certainly not be worth the cost.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah&#8217;s six electoral votes. Here&#8217;s why.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2779,"featured_media":328,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[40,152,49,165,147,39,166],"class_list":["post-372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-faith2016","tag-democratic-party","tag-evan-mcmullin","tag-hillary-clinton","tag-latter-day-saints","tag-mormons","tag-republican-party","tag-utah"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Hillary Clinton&#039;s low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There&#039;s no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah&#039;s six electoral votes. Here&#039;s why.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/\" \/>\n<link rel=\"next\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hillary Clinton&#039;s low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There&#039;s no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah&#039;s six electoral votes. Here&#039;s why.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Capitol &amp; Cathedral\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-08-23T17:18:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-08-23T17:24:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/700\/2016\/08\/salt-lake-city-485937_640-e1471972907953.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"480\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jacob Lupfer\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jacob Lupfer\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/\",\"name\":\"Hillary Clinton's low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-08-23T17:18:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-08-23T17:24:12+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#\/schema\/person\/f8947f1e7d559df3c68d54f407a231f7\"},\"description\":\"There's no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah's six electoral votes. Here's why.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/\",\"name\":\"Capitol &amp; Cathedral\",\"description\":\"Religion in American Politics\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#\/schema\/person\/f8947f1e7d559df3c68d54f407a231f7\",\"name\":\"Jacob Lupfer\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbab6bb12149afa5f2f84296363a0261?s=96&d=identicon&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbab6bb12149afa5f2f84296363a0261?s=96&d=identicon&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jacob Lupfer\"},\"description\":\"Jacob Lupfer is a faith and politics writer. A contributing editor at Religion News Service, Jacob is a frequent commentator on the role of faith in politics and public life. He is a doctoral candidate in political science at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. An expert on the institutional life of American Christianity, Jacob advises faith leaders on how religions people and institutions can more effectively advocate for the common good. During the 2016 election cycle, Jacob is blogging at Patheos about the role of faith in the campaign. His work has appeared in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, Religion &amp; Politics, Sojourners, Religion Dispatches, The Christian Post, Baptist News Global, and elsewhere. Jacob lives near Baltimore with his wife and their two young children.\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/author\/jlupfer\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Hillary Clinton's low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach","description":"There's no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah's six electoral votes. Here's why.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/","next":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/2\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Hillary Clinton's low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach","og_description":"There's no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah's six electoral votes. Here's why.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/","og_site_name":"Capitol &amp; Cathedral","article_published_time":"2016-08-23T17:18:03+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-08-23T17:24:12+00:00","og_image":[{"width":480,"height":360,"url":"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/700\/2016\/08\/salt-lake-city-485937_640-e1471972907953.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Jacob Lupfer","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jacob Lupfer","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/","name":"Hillary Clinton's low-risk, low-cost, low-reward Mormon outreach","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#website"},"datePublished":"2016-08-23T17:18:03+00:00","dateModified":"2016-08-23T17:24:12+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#\/schema\/person\/f8947f1e7d559df3c68d54f407a231f7"},"description":"There's no upside to Clinton and the Democrats making a play for Utah's six electoral votes. Here's why.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/2016\/08\/hillary-clintons-low-risk-low-cost-low-reward-mormon-outreach\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/","name":"Capitol &amp; Cathedral","description":"Religion in American Politics","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#\/schema\/person\/f8947f1e7d559df3c68d54f407a231f7","name":"Jacob Lupfer","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbab6bb12149afa5f2f84296363a0261?s=96&d=identicon&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbab6bb12149afa5f2f84296363a0261?s=96&d=identicon&r=g","caption":"Jacob Lupfer"},"description":"Jacob Lupfer is a faith and politics writer. A contributing editor at Religion News Service, Jacob is a frequent commentator on the role of faith in politics and public life. He is a doctoral candidate in political science at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. An expert on the institutional life of American Christianity, Jacob advises faith leaders on how religions people and institutions can more effectively advocate for the common good. During the 2016 election cycle, Jacob is blogging at Patheos about the role of faith in the campaign. His work has appeared in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, Religion &amp; Politics, Sojourners, Religion Dispatches, The Christian Post, Baptist News Global, and elsewhere. Jacob lives near Baltimore with his wife and their two young children.","sameAs":["http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/"],"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/author\/jlupfer\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2779"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/jacoblupfer\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}