{"id":11115,"date":"2018-09-24T09:47:31","date_gmt":"2018-09-24T15:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?p=11115"},"modified":"2018-09-24T09:47:31","modified_gmt":"2018-09-24T15:47:31","slug":"if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html","title":{"rendered":"“If the math doesn’t fit, you must . . . “: a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/p>\n

Over the weekend, we had a new report<\/a>, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This means that the attendees at the party would have been Ford, Keyser, Kavanaugh, Judge, and the previously-identified Patrick Smyth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Separately, the original letter sent by Ford to Senator Feinstein\u2019s office has now been released.\u00a0 (Legal Insurrection<\/a> has the link to a tweet by NBC News<\/a>.)\u00a0 This letter makes clear what had been unclear for me previously \u2014 how many people there were at the gathering.\u00a0 She says \u201cme and four others\u201d and I can\u2019t parse that into meaning anything else.\u00a0 At the same time, back in the earliest report from the Washington Post<\/a>, with respect to the therapist\u2019s notes from 2012 which form the basis for the claim that this is not a tale invented solely to sabotage the nomination,<\/p>\n

The notes say four boys were involved, a discrepancy Ford says was an error on the therapist\u2019s part. Ford said there were four boys at the party but only two in the room.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is what troubles me.\u00a0 In the new telling of who was at the party, or, as the letter more reasonably says, a \u201cgathering,\u201d there were 3 boys and 2 girls, two of whom were very much drunker than the rest.\u00a0 In the original version, there were 4 boys and Ford.\u00a0 Neither of these versions fit in with the tales of private D.C. schools in the early 80s as filled with debauchery.\u00a0 Five people?\u00a0 This kind of sounds like my high school life, except we wouldn\u2019t have been drinking, but instead watching a movie at the friend\u2019s house whose parents had a VCR.\u00a0 (We were dorky enough not to hang out with the popular kids, but not nerdy enough to be playing board games or D&D.)\u00a0 And this is also a strange number for a party that consists of acquaintances rather than good friends.<\/p>\n

But leaving that aside, it matters whether there were 4 boys or 3, because of those therapist\u2019s notes that undergird the claim that this is not a new invention.\u00a0 Ford told the Post<\/em> that the notes say 4 boys attacked her because the therapist mistranscribed a statement that there were 4 boys at the party.\u00a0 If there were only three boys, then Ford was being untruthful in her original explanation.\u00a0 And it seems to me that the simplest explanation for why the therapist\u2019s notes say 4 boys is that this is what she told the therapist, perhaps thinking that she needed to exaggerate the story in order to properly explain why she felt it had such lasting effects.\u00a0 Is that the only explanation?\u00a0 Presumably not, but I don\u2019t see another equally-likely one.<\/p>\n

And, again, it really makes a lot more sense for this to have been a stereotypical \u201cwild house party\u201d than a small gathering of friends, especially because, of the other identified attendees, only one is said to have been a friend<\/em> of Ford\u2019s.<\/p>\n

In the \u201cwild house party\u201d scenario, it would have been entirely understandable for Keyser not to remember.\u00a0 But in the \u201csmall gathering\u201d scenario?\u00a0 She\u2019s at a get-together with two very drunk boys and another boy and girl, her friend, who have had just one beer each.\u00a0 Her friend goes upstairs, the drunk boys follow her, and she never returns, leaving you behind.\u00a0 If I were in that scenario, I\u2019d be concerned about what happened to my friend.\u00a0 I\u2019d ask the boys, \u201chey, where\u2019d she go?\u201d\u00a0 And I\u2019d ask her, \u201cwhere did you go last night?\u00a0 You left me alone with these creeps.\u201d\u00a0 Again, I was a dork in high school, so I can\u2019t effectively put myself in her shoes, but I picture myself being worried, not just for my disappeared friend\u2019s safety, but my own.\u00a0 And it would seem reasonable to remember this.<\/p>\n

Does it matter?\u00a0 It\u2019s a small thing.\u00a0 Could such an assault have happened and she\u2019s misremembering some of the details?\u00a0 Certainly.\u00a0 But we, as citizens who won\u2019t sit in judgement of Kavanaugh directly, but will be asked to judge whether (presumably) the GOP did the right thing in, eventually, confirming him, or whether the Democrats were right in demanding otherwise, cannot access what is true, and can only base our judgements on the question of \u201chow likely is it to have been true?\u201d<\/p>\n

And I\u2019m not going to pile on to the accusation that she is by definition untruthful because she should have reported this at the time.\u00a0 Were I a teen in that situation, in which nothing happened but some groping over my clothes, and in which I couldn\u2019t conclusively say that something worse would have happened, I doubt I would have gone to the police.\u00a0 And in the intervening years, it would likewise seem that the circumstances in which one would, after all, report it, would be elevated.\u00a0 But at the same time, I don\u2019t believe that she can be relied on to be telling the truth, either, not so much because I think she is deliberately crafting a lie for partisan reasons so much as I do think that memories can deceive us.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that I don\u2019t believe that the 35 year delay means that she\u2019s lying. but I do think that the delay makes it very much more difficult to ascertain the truth.\u00a0 And every missing detail, or conflicting piece of narrative, adds up.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Judge_Brett_Michael_Kavanaugh.jpg; By U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons<\/span><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This means that the attendees at the party would have been Ford, Keyser, Kavanaugh, Judge, and the previously-identified Patrick Smyth. Separately, the original letter sent by Ford to Senator Feinstein\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1056,1080],"class_list":["post-11115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-brett-kavanaugh","tag-memory"],"yoast_head":"\n"If the math doesn't fit, you must . . . ": a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""If the math doesn't fit, you must . . . ": a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-09-24T15:47:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/wp.production.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/533\/2018\/09\/Judge_Brett_Michael_Kavanaugh.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html\",\"name\":\"\\\"If the math doesn't fit, you must . . . \\\": a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-09-24T15:47:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-09-24T15:47:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\"},\"description\":\"Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"“If the math doesn’t fit, you must . . . “: a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jane the Actuary\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\"If the math doesn't fit, you must . . . \": a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford","description":"Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\"If the math doesn't fit, you must . . . \": a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford","og_description":"Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html","og_site_name":"Jane the Actuary","article_published_time":"2018-09-24T15:47:31+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/wp.production.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/533\/2018\/09\/Judge_Brett_Michael_Kavanaugh.jpg"}],"author":"Jane the Actuary","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jane the Actuary","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html","name":"\"If the math doesn't fit, you must . . . \": a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website"},"datePublished":"2018-09-24T15:47:31+00:00","dateModified":"2018-09-24T15:47:31+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a"},"description":"Over the weekend, we had a new report, that the last person at the party recounted by Christine Blasey Ford has been identified as\u00a0Leland Keyser.\u00a0 This","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2018\/09\/if-the-math-doesnt-fit-you-must-a-few-more-words-on-kavanaugh-ford.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"“If the math doesn’t fit, you must . . . “: a few more words on Kavanaugh\/Ford"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/","name":"Jane the Actuary","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a","name":"Jane the Actuary","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jane the Actuary"},"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2209"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11115\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}